A little something to whet your appetite while you wait for the predictions ... These are the Top 25 guys in AAA at states in my opinion, in no particular order .... I'll figure out exactly where I want everyone in the coming weeks. It's going to be a tough year to predict.
Alec Kunzweiler
Evan Williams
Ryan Hertzog
Colin Abert
Brent Kennedy
Ethan Martin
Ean DiSilvio
Dan Savage
Tom Coyle
Kevin James
Ernie Pitone
Brian Shields
Chris Culley
Josh Zemet
Austin Pondel
Tony Russell
Ross Wilson
Reiny Barchet
Max Norris
Conner Quinn
Connor Harriman
Jack Macauley
Mac Emery
Francis Ferruzzi
Jon Colwell
Ok, that's a start. But this is the big week Etrain! If your classes are cancelled and you have all that free time, we're expecting it all. Top 50 rankings, predictions of top 25 finishers in order, top 10 teams, O'Hara vs. Henderson in-depth analysis. LaSalle's chances with only 5 guys. Maybe even a prediction of the girls Unionville/Pennsbury round II. In return, you can gloat all you want about sticking with CRN in the beginning of the season when it didn’t look so good, that was a great call! Seriously, nice job with the blog, as usual. -RJJL
ReplyDeleteThat's a lot for him to do, and in another post he said his classes haven't been canceled yet. I pity you right now Etrain, you're going to have a fun 2 days walking to class.
DeleteI'm working on an analysis of the top 5 teams in the state, O'Hara, WCH, NA, CRN, and I'm adding LaSalle into the mix since they made it in.
DeleteShould be very interesting. I'll have Etrain post it as a topic of discussion if you guys would like that. It might be a bit long, but I'll have team scores, places, and comparisons, ect. I've been updating it everyweekend all season, so I just have a bit of tweaking to do :)
Sadly, I too have classes these next two days.
--ForrestCRN
Jacob Fetterman had a break-out race at foundation where he placed 21st. He always runs well on the state course and I think he has a legitimate shot at medaling.
ReplyDeletethere are people that did better than that and aren't on the list
DeleteYou're just making him look bad by talking him up. The kid is an underdog and that's putting it kindly. He is the worst AAA Champ District 2 has produced in the last decade. Let him remain an underdog- if he medals then good for him.
DeleteMaybe the worst in the last decade is a stretch... the course was a mud pit.
Deletei dont think the above guy is using times run on the district course as a frame of reference.. he is definitely thinking of the bigger picture. hes pretty right too, im not a fan of bashing kids on etrains blog but there was not anybody else in the 2012 AAA race who could be considered anything close to a big name runner. they were all unknowns. throw fetterman (in his current shape) in a rerun of the AAA races of 2008, 2007, or 2010 and his inferiority will be apparent (especially 2008). even in the AA races of the last few years he would be getting creamed. i think he is capable of top 40 though.
DeleteYou guys probably won't see this but you can suck fat ones. I was right bitches. -Original Commenter.
DeleteIt's going to be Kennedy, Coyle and Russell all the way to the end
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know the conditions of Hershey?
ReplyDeleteIs it raining there?
Will the course dry out or will it still be muddy?
It's gonna be swamped at Hershey
Deletelast year Irene left the course a mess for foundation which was two weeks after the storm. This storm will make the course even worse
DeleteNo foundation was a mess from a storm that was Thursday and Friday before the meet
DeleteWith how trashed the course is going to be after the hurricane and 5 races before the AAA boys, I think Quinn is going to surprise some people (as much as its possible to surprise people when you're already the defending champ). he's a good mud runner and a much better runner on the hills of Hershey than the track that is Lehigh. He may not be able to take down Russell but I think he'll be right up there fighting for the title
ReplyDeleteI agree. I think everyone forgets that Quinn was in a very similar position last year and Tony was in a very similar position as Magaha last year. Look how that turned out. I'm not saying Tony can't win, because I do think he is arguably the strongest runner in the state. But guys like Quinn who can beat those hills and get past the mud will be the ones who rise up.
DeleteRussell went 15:41 on Belmont is mid-September. That course is no Hershey but it's no Lehigh either. He can obviously handle the hills.
DeleteComparisons to Magaha aren't really fair, Drew said something like he was a track guy running XC to prove to colleges he could do it. Russell I believe, lives for XC. Plus he has the added motivation of running for a team championship as well as the advantage of go out side by side with his training partner Barchet. Both Russell or Barchet are very capable of winning the title.
Quinn has come on nicely in the last two weeks but I don't see a repeat of last years magic. Maybe top 10 for him.
-RJJL
I do think Quinn will be in the top 5, but mud is an equalizer. I don't see how that gives him an advantage in any way, unless he's an earth bender or something, because all of the guys at that level know how to run through mud.
DeleteLast year, Tony ran 54 seconds slower at States than districts. Based on this year's time, that would put him in the hunt at states. Of course, he may have added more hills into his training this year.
ReplyDeleteAlso, he ran very well in the mud at Chesmonts.
Here's something to think about:
ReplyDeleteHow many of those guys think that they have a shot at the title?
I'd guess at least 15 of them have some hope of crossing the line first. That changes the way people run, especially when its possibly their last XC race of the season, or HS career in some cases. Watch for at least 3 of those 15 guys to try a unneccessary move or go out too hard in the mud, and drop out of the medals. I think that some of the more conservative runners who average 10th-15th in Big Three Districts to move up as top guys faulter. I could see runners like Nissley, NA pack, Hamilton sneaking in towards the bottom of the medals.