District 3 at Hershey: Gift or Curse?

First off, a big congrats to Cumberland Valley and Alec Kunzweiler. I thought this team was going to do the most damage at states, but they proved that even when they are not quite ready to peak they are still the best team in District 3. Kunzweiler proved that he is back to being one of the state title contenders and beat out high quality field. Lower Dauphin was impressive as well. Even with bad luck for Groh, the team still finished a very close 2nd in the team title race. Major props there for those 2-4 guys who stepped it up big time for LD.

But on to the real point of this ... how are these guys going to do in a little over a week when they are on the big stage at Hershey?

Historically, AAA has had some bad luck with its District Champions. Dating back to 2007 the AAA District 3 champions were as follows:

2007: Cedar Crest, Vince McNally (State Finish: Cedar Crest 15th, McNally 18th)

2008: Conrad Weiser, Kyle Hurston (State Finish: Conrad Weiser 10th, Hurston 18th)

2009: Conrad Weiser, Chuck Lockwood (State Finish: Conrad Weiser 11th, Lockwood 4th) ,

2010: Hempfield, Alex Galli (State Finish: Hempfield 19th, Galli 45th),
2011: Chambersburg, Jeff Groh (State Finish: Chambersburg 20th, Groh 142nd),

With the exception of 2009, where both the team title winners individual winners were the top runners from District 3 at states, those teams that have ran well at the Hershey district course have struggled at states. Most notably was Vince McNally, who ended up being a Foot Locker Finalist. He fell to 18th at the state meet after being one of the favorites for the title.

The last two years especially have had unfortunate results for D3 runners. Galli and Groh both finished out of the medaling spots at states, the first time in roughly a decade (maybe more, my resources don't go back that far) that the individual District 3 champion did not get a medal at states. The top finishers from D3 were 12th and 14th in each of those years and D3 racked up just 3 medalist spots out of the 50. In 2009 they had 3 of the top 16 runners and in 2008 they had 3 of the top 20.

The team effects were even more significant. Chambersburg and Hempfield came off their District Championships and struggled to compete at the state meet. Each team finished outside the 15 and finished as the 5th District 3 team at the state championships. The District Champions have placed in the top 10 just once at states in the past 5 state meets (Conrad Weiser, 10th).

However, there is a bright spot here for Cumberland Valley supporters. The team does know how to navigate the course two weeks in a row. Despite not winning a District Championship in the past 5 years, CV was the top team at states from District 3 4 out of the past 5 years. Guys like Chris Cotino, Andy Flynn, Mark Fuller, Ryan Hartzel and Alec Kunzweiler have improved relative to the rest of the District at the state championships.

But perhaps what surprises me most is that AA has not felt the same effects as the AAA compatriots. In fact over the past 5 years at states, the AA state champion has been from District 3 in 4 of the 5 years (the only exception is Shearn last fall). Beveridge won back to back years in very convincing fashion then Welsh and Kubiak took 1-2 for District 3 and Gruschow capped off the streak in 2010 with a bit of a surprise victory.

Vinny Todaro, who won this year's District 3 AA title, is one of the early favorites for the state title, along with Shearn and Jaskowak in the most competitive division out front in the state.

It should be interesting to see which trends prevail this coming weekend at Hershey.