AAA Medalists in Order

25. Francis Ferruzzi, Sr Upper Dublin (1)- Obviously a little biased here, but I do believe he is ready for a big race at the state meet. He knows how to run this state course and if not for sickness last year would have been in contention for a medal last year as well. He has something to prove after Districts and I am optimistic for his performance at states.

24. Colin Abert, So Easton (11)- A little known sophomore from District 11 has caught my eye and I am really optimistic about him at this state meet. You can usually count on a few sophomores to sneak into the medal count at the state meet, and he is one of the best in the state for his class. I watched him at District 11 and he really motored around the course. If he keeps his head and runs a smart race he will be a medalist.

23. Jon Colwell, Sr Mifflin County (6)- Colwell took a big step last week with the big District 6 win over Will Cather. District 6, historically, has had pretty good showings at the state meet, led mostly by the Altoona boys, but Colwell was an under the radar 31st last year. He proved he can run the state course well and peak at the right time, and I think that experience will carry him through to a medal.

22. Josh Zemet, Sr North Allegheny (7)- Zemet is the #1 runner on NA's team and the senior leader. This team essentially always has a state medalist, and Zemet seems the most likely candidate rather than the young kids on NA's team. Zemet ran well at pre states and WPIALs and seems to be in a good posistion to contend for a state medal, especially with team title hopes dependent on how high up their tight pack finishes.

21. Chris Culley, Sr Moon Area (7)- Culley was 18th last year in a surprise finish, carried by his big kick. Culley is rounding into top shape at just the right time as well after a big finish at WPIALs. There are always a few medalists who don't capture the same magic and finish as high as they did the year before. Culley has major potential to surprise, however, and is a nice sleeper pick for this state meet especially after his race last  weekend.

20. Kevin James, So O'Hara (12)- James is the ultimate come back story at states this year and I believe he will rise to the occasion and finish as the top sophomore at the state meet. I have the O'Hara team as state champions this year, I believe they will peak at the right time for states just like they have the last two years. There is a chance James will try to redeem himself so much that he goes out too hard and falls out of the medals, however, I believe that he and his teammates can roll together at an appropriate pace and place well. This team is a focused on grabbing that state title for the PCL.

19. Ernie Pitone, Sr O'Hara (12)- Team title hopes on the line, rounding into shape very nicely after PCLs, probably took it easy at Districts (somewhat). I believe in the O'Hara boys and I think Pitone rounds into shape at the right time once again and has his best race at states.

18. Ryan Hertzog, Sr South Western (3)- Honestly, I hate to say it, but it is essentially a crap shoot to guess which District 3 guys are going to be able to run well two weeks in a row at Hershey and which guys are going to blow up. But I am betting on Hertzog for this race, I think he runs the state course very well and is better than he was last weekend at Districts. He was 37th last year.

17. Brian Shields, Sr Hampton (7)- Shields has been on a roll this season and I am a big supporter of him as we approach the state meet. As a sophomore he had a very good finish at states, but Junior year faced a few obstacles that left him out of that top group. I expect him to be back and rolling at the state meet this weekend.

16. Mac Emery, Sr Council Rock North (1)- CR North is my big sleeper team by states, in my opinion they have a shot at beating NA at the state meet, depending on how the young guys rise to the occassion for both squads. Emery is going to be a key piece for CRNorth's efforts. He has the talent to run with Ross Wilson, but he has had trouble racing in the big meets. I think he has too much talent and too much motivation to be off the medal stand at Hershey.

15. Jack Macauley, Sr North Penn (1)- Macauley ran big at last year's state meet and helped lead his team to a state championship. This year, however, he doesn't have the same motivation without any other NP boys on the starting line with him. He also doesn't have as much to prove after a big track season and a big district meet. He still is way too talented to not finish on the medal stand.

14. Evan Williams, Sr Governor Mifflin (3)- Williams is one of the those D3 guys who I think will bounce back from the District meet well. Williams ran really well at Pre States and Districts last year and I think this year Governor Mifflin is ready to peak a week later than they did in 2011. Unfortunately, only Williams will get the chance to prove it.

13. Ethan Martin, Jr Fox Chapel (7)- Martin is a guy I have went back and forth on in this race. I think he is going to be a solid racer today, and has been clutch at the past few state meets. However, I think he and the Fox Chapel boys had their biggest meet of the year last season and that is going to hold him back from a top 10 finish.

12. Max Norris, Sr Harriton (1)- Norris had an off state meet last year, but going into the meet I thought he was a sure fire top 5 finisher. This year I'm still high on him for a top finish, not quite top 5, but a lot of potential here. I hope that he is healthy enough to hang on this brutal course. If he doesn't try to push the whole way win Quinn he could be a top 5 guy for sure. He has a nice finishing kick as well.

11. Alec Kunzweiler, Sr Cumberland Valley (3)- Kunzweiler has the burden of District 3 champion on him as we approach state time, but I think he will still deliver a top finish at the meet. He has proven multiple times now he is a clutch runner and his kick is certainly one of the best in the field. I don't feel comfortable placing him higher than this purely because he is District 3 champion and there is lots of potential for him to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a Lockwood more than a Galli however.

10. Ean DiSilvio, Sr Allerdice (7)- I haven't forgotten DiSilvio's big Pre-States meet. He almost held on for the win and in a race like this, he should have a little bit more push through out. He has something to prove after WPIALs where Kennedy and Martin had his number. He is a true XC runner if I ever saw one and the mud will only help him jump spots at states.

9. Conner Quinn, Sr Hatboro Horsham (1)- Quinn is one of the guys that I have gone back and forth on most. Yes, he could end up coming back and winning the state championship, but I think something is missing here now that he doesn't have Hibbs. The mud certainly helps him against these more speed based runners, but his front running style he has adopted of late scares me for the state meet. Front runners die in the back hills historically. He could be anywhere from 1st to 20th in my mind.

8. Tom Coyle, Sr LaSalle (12)- Coyle amazes me because he was able to get top fitness back so quickly. His D12 win was impressive, after I saw it I was convinced he was going to win states. I have since applied some new logic to the race. Yes, it was impressive. Yes, he very well may win states. However, I think it is more likely Coyle will struggle without his midseason fitness and fade a bit down the stretch on the brutal state course.

7. Tony Russell, Jr Henderson (1)- Henderson fans don't jump too far down my throat for this pick. Yes, Russell was a convincing District champion last weekend. Yes, Russell has proven he can run fast on hilly courses. However, I don't think Russell is ready to be the state champion. He still has to prove himself on the specific state course which he struggled with a year ago. He has to break his every other race streak vs. Barchet. He also has said he doesn't want to sacrifice a shot at team gold for individual gold. Ask Chris Derrick what that ends up like.

6. Reiny Barchet, Jr Henderson (1)- I predicted at the beginning of the season it would be Russell at Districts, Barchet at states. I can't really back out now. Barchet is more of a true XC guy than Russell (not that Russell isn't an XC guy of course, I think he has proven he is, just speaking relatively) and will benefit from the switch to the state course. The Henderson duo is pretty sick this year, but I don't project a one-two finish. Ask North Hills, Lower Merion and North Penn if those 1-2 punches ever had the big meet at states. Heck ask Gottesfield and Williams from the same Henderson school.

5. Connor Harriman, Sr Pennsbury (1)- I think Harriman will be something like 11th going into Poop-Out hill. The guy proved his kick on the state course is pretty sweet not only at Pre-States this year, but also at the state meet last year. He has had his best races on this course the last two years and although it looks like Pennsbury is slipping a little bit, I haven't given up on Harriman.

4. Austin Pondel, Sr Corry Area (10)- Pondel ran in the brutal mud last weekend. I doubt he is going to be excited about having to use those same mud runnning muscles again this weekend coming up. I truly believe Pondel is a top 3 runner in the state counting the other divisions, but I think his hard effort last weekend may take something out of his legs for this weekend. At Footlocker, however, he is one of my early picks from PA to make it through to Nats.

3. Ross Wilson, Jr Council Rock North (1)- Wilson is on fire right now. People didn't really know about this kid for a lot of the year, but he is a legitimate state title contender. He is much less of a Lehigh beneficiary than his Henderson comrades. I think he is going to eat up the hills and really suprise some people. Might even be in first place with 400m to go.

2. Brent Kennedy, Jr Kiski Area (7)- I really like Kennedy this year, and I wanted to pick him as the state champion. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the WPIAL champion carried his momentum to the state meet and used his killer kick to grab the gold. However, surprisingly, Kennedy has lost two kickers races this year. But I am picking against him more so because I do believe Seniors are the most likely state champions. If I was giving odds, he would probably have very similar odds to the guy above him on the rankings.

1. Dan Savage, Sr O'Hara (12)- Mr. Savage may not be the sexy pick for the state champion (and honestly probably is shocking for most of you to see at the top of my list), but I really believe in O'Hara at this state meet. Savage was 4th last year at the state meet in an impressive race where he beat a lot of guys I thought he wouldn't. I think the mud benefits him and is the great equalizer for a guy who is a true XC guy at heart. Normally, I wouldn't think he has the finishing speed to win a race like this, but after seeing Conner Quinn pull through last year I have new found confidence. It isn't the safest pick, but I'll take my chances.