So as promised, here are my picks for the District Championship in District 1 AAA. I should be at the meet to watch the race unfold and hopefully, my predicts will be at least somewhat right. I have Henderson taking the team title followed by CRN in 2nd, Great Valley in 3rd, WC East in 4th and Pennsbury in 5th ... the last 3 spots with DTWest should be very tight. I've bolded the 25 individuals who I think will qualify for states as at large bids. Hopefully I didn't include any AA teams. Obviously there are some surprises here and when I have more time I can go more in depth about certain picks, but just let me know your thoughts and get excited for the postseason! District 7 hopefully is coming soon.
1.
Max Norris, Sr
Harriton
2.
Tony
Russell, Jr Henderson
3.
Conner Quinn, Sr
Hatboro Horsham
4.
Connor
Harriman, Sr Pennsbury
5.
Ross
Wilson, Jr Council Rock North
6.
Jack Macauley,
Sr North Penn
7.
Reiny
Barchet, Jr Henderson
8.
Francis Ferruzzi,
Sr Upper Dublin
9.
Mac
Emery, Sr Council Rock North
10. Jack Huemmler, Sr Strath Haven
11.
Sam
Webb, So Pennsbury
12.
Matt
Willig, Jr Great Valley
13. Chris Berry, Sr CB West
14. Adam Bodine, Sr Haverford
15. Curtis Watro, Sr Methacton
16. David Fowler, Jr Haverford
17.
Bobby
Rimkis, Sr Henderson
18.
James
Zingarini, Sr Council Rock North
19. Joey Steadman, Sr Downingtown West
20.
Eric
Diestelow, So West Chester East
21. Alec Brand, Sr CB East
22. Kyle Francis, Jr Bensalem
23. Jake Brophy, Fr CB East
24.
Billy
Wolffe, Sr Great Valley
25.
Chris
Cummings, Jr West Chester East
26. Kenny Leidal, Sr Downingtown West
27. Chris Kazanjan, Jr Penncrest
28.
Garrett
Zatlin, Jr Great Valley
29.
Sam
Haugh, Jr West Chester Henderson
30. Seamus Collins, Jr West Chester Henderson
30. Seamus Collins, Jr West Chester Henderson
31. Chris Coastes, Sr West Chester Rustin
32. Connor Linse, Sr Souderton
33. Brad Rivera, Sr Bensalem
34.
Steven
Dages, Jr West Chester East
35. Matt Kazanjan, Jr Penncrest
36. Steve Yannacone, Sr Unionville
37. Joey Logue, Jr Pennridge
38.
Eric
Stratman, Jr West Chester Henderson
39. Tristan Marcelis, Jr Wissahickon
40. Christian Sanders, Sr Upper Merion
41. Billy Caldwell, Jr Downingtown East
42. Michael Cassidy, Sr Spring Ford
43.
Anthony
Smart, Sr Garnet Valley (First to miss)
44.
Watson
Hanson, Jr Radnor
45.
Alex
Balla, Sr Quakertown
46.
Brian
Arita, So Council Rock North
47.
Alex
Sauer, So Pennsbury
Can you please do District 3 first, because D3 races on Wed and District 7 on Thurs? To me it makes more sense that way, then again I also run in D3.
ReplyDeleteyeah definitely, ull just have to stay on top of me if i mix up who is AAA and who is AA
DeleteHenderson doesn't have Tim Collins anymore. I think you meant Seamus Collins, his brother.
ReplyDeleteKind of disappointing looking at these district 8 results and seeing that a team that probably averaged 1930's, Carrick, is going to states and PA #4 Lasalle is most likely not. This is absolutely ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteThe Penncrest brothers seem a little low and the CB East and West a little too high. Is Huemmler healthy? He didn't run at Central champs.
ReplyDeleteKazanjan brothers have recently lost to Chris Berry, and he had a few good races in a row, beating the two of them at CRN's invite, beating MacCauley in a dual meet, and he ran 15:30 for about 4900 at the WT invite (I was at the race, it was cut short). I think he'll have a bounce back race come districts. Brand didn't race very well, losing to his teamate Brophy, who btw has been racing well (and slightly behind Brand) all season, but Brand should bounce back. I think these picks make sense. (not sure if that's exactly what Etrain is thinking, but it's how I percieved those picks).
DeleteHuemmler is healthy and now that he's signed with UPenn he's got some things to prove in XC to his new teamate Shearn (congrats to both of them!). Plus the course is fast, he should have a good day. Top 15 pretty easily.
--ForrestCRN
I don't know about Norris for the win.....then again i don't write the blog but my pick is Conner Quinn. He's going to be itching for a big win before states because I feel like people have been drawing their attention away from him a little bit. However, Norris is phenominal and it wouldn't suprise me if he won.
ReplyDeleteHuemmler is running at Districts
ReplyDeleteI'll say it again - Mac Emery is going to win districts
ReplyDeleteI'd be shocked if the Henderson boys ran hard, or even a full varsity; similarly to their effort at chesmonts.
ReplyDeleteThey've got to run hard some day. Besides, they need to determine who runs varsity at States.
DeleteI agree 100%. Evidence shows that they haven't run a full varsity in big meets at all this year, (with the exception of briarwood, but the varsity has changed a bit since then). It would be ridiculous for Henderson to go all out, I highly doubt Kevin Kelly would have Russell and Barchet run districts hard when they took ches-monts easy. I believe Russell would get second, probably win actually, if he tried his best. Henderson is probably taking advantage of O'hara racing hard every meet by resting their guys for the big race at states. If Henderson wins States, I would bet that it would be because of O'hara having Kevin James racing hard so much. He is a bit too young to be racing this much. I just hope that all of it doesn't catch up to him in the future because he is very talented.
DeleteI just think Henderson is more focused on their training than showing off the runners to everyone else in every meet they go to. It's keeping us in the dark but that's just going to make states more exciting.
DeleteI'd bet Henderson runs all their guys at this meet and they go hard. It's championship season and Kevin Kelly wants his guys to win the championship. In past years they rested top guys before Districts but ran hard at Districts. They wanted to make a statement at this meet and think this year is no different. Plus these kids are high school kids and this is the big chance for them to get a PR. I don't think Coach Kelly has lost sight of that fact of high school running.
DeleteHenderson went all out against CBA last week. They rested some guys at chestmonts. They'd be crazy not to go all out at districts. You have to race to be sharp.
Delete1.Tony Russell, Jr Henderson
ReplyDelete2.Mac Emery, Sr Council Rock North
3.Conner Quinn, Sr Hatboro Horsham
4.Max Norris, Sr Harriton
5.Ross Wilson, Jr Council Rock North
6.Connor Harriman, Sr Pennsbury
7.Reiny Barchet, Jr Henderson
8.Jack Macauley, Sr North Penn
9.Francis Ferruzzi, Sr Upper Dublin
10.Chris Berry, Sr CB West
11.Jack Huemmler, Sr Strath Haven
12.Matt Willig, Jr Great Valley
13.Sam Webb, So Pennsbury
14.Adam Bodine, Sr Haverford
15.Curtis Watro, Sr Methacton
16.James Zingarini, Sr Council Rock North
17.David Fowler, Jr Haverford
18.Bobby Rimkis, Sr Henderson
19.Kyle Francis, Jr Bensalem
20.Joey Steadman, Sr Downingtown West
1. WCH: 1-3= 26+30+31= 87
2. CRN: 1-3= 23+42+61=126
3. GV: 12+25+27+55+60= 179
4. WCE: 21+26+33+64+70= 214
5. DTW: 20+27+50+58+80=235
6. PB: 6+13+50+75+85= 324
I think PB will have less points, but I don't see there 4-5 guys being under 16:50, so it's tough to give them less. Didn't think they'd drop, but DTW ran really well this past weekend. I don't think their top two will run as well as they did at Ches-Monts, but 3-5 really stepped up.
Being from the SOL I'm rooting for PB to step up and get in the top 5, but I just don't see it happening after there last 2 races. Although, I wouldn't be shocked if Harriman won this race. I think he's saving his magic for Hersey though.
--ForrestCRN (Bias as usual for the haters)
While you guys are all criticizing me, post your schools next to your actual names. Thanks :)
I think this is actually a good idea ... any comment that has a name/school attached is much more likely for me to take seriously and not get deleted than one that is anonymous ...
ReplyDelete1. Connor Harriman
ReplyDelete2. Jack Macauley
3. Tony Russell
4. Conner Quinn
5. Mac Emery
6. Max Norris
7. Ross Wilson
8. Sam Webb
9. Reiny Barchet
10. Jack Huemmler
11. Chris Berry
12. Francis Ferruzzi
13. Adam Bodine
14. Matt Willig
15. Bobby Rimkis
16. James Zingarini
17. Curtis Watro
18. Kenny Leidal
19. Joey Steadman
20.David Fowler
Harriman over Russell and Macauley? Webb over Barchet and Ferruzzi? lol no, but say hi to your PB friends though
DeleteJG isn't even remotely closely to Pennsbury I hate to say haha so those are pretty unbiased picks
DeleteI don't think Great Valley should be 3rd, probably either Pennsbury or WCE, with DTW in 4th.
ReplyDeleteGreat Valley has stepped it up lately man. Their 3rd place at chesmonts was not expected by many. They peak when the races count, so 3rd is very realistic. They even have a very good shot at 2nd, I won't be surprised if they finish 2nd.
DeleteYeah just like how Ned WIllig peaked in great time last year
DeleteI can see GV taking 3rd. 2nd is possible if one of CRN's top 5 runs bad. They have a bit of a drop off after 5 and GV is a little deeper.
DeleteThe thing about DTW is that their first three guys have all run 16 minutes before, but the rest haven't. Not only haven't they run that this season, their PR's aren't sub 17. You have the top three... and then the next two are at 17:02 (PR this season) and 17:30 (PR this season). Assuming they all have ON days. If one messes up, your next in is a 17:31. If you want to make States (assuming the weather is sunny and course is dry) you need five of your runners to be sub 17. 30 second PR's aren't unheard of, but you're basically bidding on you having a great day and the rest of the teams having off ones.
ReplyDeleteLook at CRN/PB ... they both have two runners they will place very high up at districts and then a pack of runners they should all be under 17 (have run sub 17 before).
Henderson will run their top guys and they will run all out for a couple reasons:
1- They aren't sure of who is their varsity. Their top five seem pretty solid (Russell, R. Barchet, Rimkis, Knapp, and Collins), but they have a huge fight for the next two spots with G. Barchet, Waltz, Chaborek, and Haugh. Knapp didn't run so well at chesmonts... so he may be thrown back into the pot as well. They need to know who is the best of them to determine who will give them the best shot at States.
2- They haven't held back at districts the last few years, why now? Last year they ran hard, two years ago with Andrews, Stecklair, and Collins they didn't, with Kellar they didn't, why would they start now? If districts beats them up then they are in pretty bad shape (which they most certainly aren't). They will run hard.
3- Why take away a district title from them? If they do as you say, then essentially every runner that's "guaranteed" a spot to States and have a shot to win would just chill at districts and slide by. Districts is a huge momentum boost for States and will not be taken lightly by anyone.
My prediction for districts is:
1. Henderson
2. CR North
3. WC East
4. Great Valley
5. Pennsbury
6. DTW
Individual spots (20):
1. Tony Russell
2. Max Norris
3. Connor Quinn
4. Connor Harriman
5. Reiny Barchet
6. Ross Wilson
7. Mac Emery
8. Jack Macauley
9. Francis Ferruzzi
10. Sam Webb
11. Jack Huemmler
12. Chris Berry
13. Adam Bodine
14. Matt Willig
15. Bobby Rimkis
16. Eric Diestelow
17. James Zingarini
18. Joey Steadman
19. Ken Leidel
20. Garrett Zatlin
-RTJ
You forgot Eric Stratman in that Varsity pack and he should be a lock based on the results so far. That leaves one open spot that should be taken by Haugh after his race at Ches-monts.
DeletePlus remember with DTW, the courses they've run on have all been said to be very difficult and haven't run on a fast course, and a 17:02 and 17:30 will both probably equate to 16:35 and 16:55.
DeleteA lot of those PR's are from Maymount and judging from the massive PR's people set on both teams (girls/guys) I assumed the course wasn't insanely hard. Bulldog is a semi-challenging course, so the 17:02 may drop a 16:30 something at districts... but I wouldn't be too sure.
Delete-RTJ
The bulldog course is easier then the Delcos course cause it cuts out the big hill at two miles and the finishing hill.... Js
DeleteIs that true about Bulldog being different from DELCO's? How do they run a 5K there cutting out the big hill and the finishing hill. There doesn't seem to be enough room.
DeleteIt's short I'm pretty sure and yet finish all the way behind this red building
DeleteBulldog runs the Hurricane Floyd course which takes you up past the amphitheatre instead of thru the creek and up the "2 mile" hill and the finish is along the tree line behind the brick building which cuts out the finishing hill that is part of Delcos
DeleteThat course sounds a lot easier. Now I know why the Bulldog times seemed a little fast for mid-September.
DeleteI guess 40 second pr's are possible...
Deletemy prediction is Kevin Kelly knows exactly who he's running at States...but it won't be the same team that runs at districts.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure they have a good idea for the State line up but I doubt it's set in stone. Tony Russell earned his way onto the State varsity squad in 2010 after impressive wins in the Chestmont and Districts JV races.
DeleteO'hara on the other hand, has 1-6 set and maybe a decision for the 7th man.
Henderson or any other runner is not going to hold back at districts. No high school coach would deny a guy who has a legitimate chance of medaling at Districts by having him try to save something for States. All of the hard work over the summer and until now comes down to the next two meets, eight days apart. If a teenage varsity runner can’t recover from a hard race at Districts in time for States, he has no chance of making an impact at States anyway.
ReplyDeleteEtrain, WCH obviously, and of course your early CRN pick. GV, Dwest, WCE and PB fighting for the last three spots, but do you see any D1 sleeper teams with a realistic chance to surprise?
ReplyDeleteMaybe Penncrest?
DeletePenncrest, CBW, CBE, Haverford (that's a stretch)
DeleteCB West and Penncrest are the most reasonable two, Pennrest with a slightly better shot than CB West ... North Penn I guess you can never count out, but I'd be stunned if they got through
DeleteI think Tony Russell is going to take the individual title, by a lot. I'm not sure there is anyone in D1 who could today run the 15:41 he ran at Belmont in September, or beat the CBA team like he did in NY two weeks ago. Lehigh sets up perfect for him and I suspect he really likes the course. It also just seems like the time to break out and be the top guy.
ReplyDelete- RJ
That's RJJL, not to be confused with RTJ.
DeleteLooks like the weather is going to be great, 60 and little wind for the AAA boys. My guess is that when the Henderson boys and Wilson get on the lead, the pace will stiffen. Harriman has a ridiculous kick. Those 3 won't let the pace lag the 2nd 1/2 of the race.
ReplyDeleteJust as long as there is no mud!
DeleteBy the way, who is Wilson?
Ross Wilson from CRN
DeleteHarriman didn't have a kick last week. 200 to go and he was right behind Emery.
DeleteAnyone got some sleepers/deep sleepers to mix it up in the top 15-20?
ReplyDeleteDowningtown West needs a solid 5th guy, Pennsbury should be favorited for the final spot
ReplyDeleteI think West gets in. They've got a good 5-9. It's actually a tough call for the coach to decide who will probably come through if on varsity. It's gonna be close with West, GV, WCE and Pennsbury.
DeleteDoes anyone know if the course has dried up and will it be dry tomorrow? Or will there be some mud?
ReplyDeleteLast minute predictions......
ReplyDeleteWCH Varsity - Russell, Barchet, Rimkis, Collins, Haugh, Stratman, Knapp
First mile leader – 4:52 (could be anyone)
Individual
Russell – 15:24
Quinn – 15:36
Norris – 15:42
Team
WCH – 84
CRN – 212
GV – 246
DTW – 264
WCE – 272
-RJJL
Did LaSalle perform well enough to get five guys to States? I think they did, but I'm not too sure...
ReplyDelete-RTJ
Just read it, LaSalle takes 5 to States!! They run as a team! Congrats boys and great win by Tom. He's back in action.
ReplyDelete-RTJ