So here is what I have so far for splits
Pennwood 4x4
Hunter 50.6, Futch 49.2/48.9, 53.0, Stiles 48.0
Wissahickon 4x4
Stellato 49.9, Brooks 51.6, Hairston 49.6, Dixon 50.1
Great Valley DMR
Willig 3:00/3:01.2, DMC 50.9, Willig 2:01, Wolffe 4:31
Altoona DMR
Mountain 3:11, Steinbugl 51, Reade 2:03, Replogle 4:23
Kiski DMR
Lednak 3:19, Miller :53, Snider 2:04, Kennedy 4:27
DT West 4x8
Chris Graham 2:01.2, Ken Liedal 1:59.6, Ryan Markle 2:01.6, Alex Jenkins 1:58.2
Keep the splits coming. Obviously a lot of information can be gained from these kind of things.
Looking towards outdoors, it will be interesting to see how the 4x8 plays out. Obviously only 8 teams come out of district one, which means there may be some sub 8 teams left home.
Recently Cumberland Valley dropped an 8 flat 4x8 at Eastern states so they will be in the outdoor conversation. CV and Chambersburg headline the District 3 squads, both with potential for solid 7:50-55 range performances outdoors and both with potential stud anchors.
In D7 Penn Hills should be on the next level when they have fresh legs at the start of the meet rather than tired legs at the end. They are better on paper than last year when they ran 7:51. Kiski Area has potential to surprise, but Kennedy is the big sleeper, that was an impressive 4:27 carry for a team that really hasn't raced much indoors. They ran sub 8 last year and should be back under. North Allegheny also has pieces for a nice sub 8 DMR if these choose to focus their energies on that at all.
In District 12 LaSalle will again be a force and O'Hara has potential to surprise and run a solid 4x8 as well. Maybe even Bonner can sneak up into the 8 flat range and make a push for states.
And of course in District One madness with again be present. Strath Haven, Penncrest, Pennridge, North Penn, DT West, Henderson, Great Valley, Holy Ghost Prep, CB West, CB East, Bensalem, Spring Ford, CR North and others have a legitimate shot at a sub 8 minute 4x8 (some of them having already accomplished the feat). And there are always surprises come outdoors. Only 8 teams can go out of District One, which makes things a brawl. I expect Haven, Penncrest, Pennridge to be locks. HGPrep, CB West, DT West should all also get in if they put their top guys in. Who knows which teams will sacrifice the individual glory for the relays. Most likely North Penn and Henderson would get back, but I don't know their plan for individual events. But if they do opt for the relay that is 8 teams right there. Teams like CB East with legitimate sub 8 aspirations would be left home. As would CR North, Spring Ford and Bensalem, all under the radar potential surprises.
But the fun of track is you never know who is going to step up and make a name for themselves.
Boys, let's see what you got.
History
So just like XC I was thinking any state medalists who want to message me about their experience at the state meet and what they thought of their race, I will glad post it up on the blog. Also splits! I want to try and get as many splits as possible and post them up on here, I think that'd be sweet. If we could get a bunch of different perspectives on every race that went down this past weekend I think that would make for quite the bit of reading for everybody on here. So yeah, keep in touch with me, if you don't know how to reach me by now then just comment here or facebook message me.
Something that I thought was worth noting: indoor state champions have struggled to repeat with victories outdoors. Let's look back a year to 2011 at states. On the distance side Gil and Endress took the individual titles, but come outdoors both struggled to come home with golds again. In fact state champion and state runner up in the 3200m Glenn Burkhardt and Zach Hebda both were completely absent from the indoor season. Magaha and Cho both were outside the top 3 at PSU before taking home the gold at Shippensburg.
And last year was not a fluke year by any means. In 2010 Rad Gunzenhauser was an easy winner in the 3k indoors, but faded to 5th outdoors as Matt Fischer took home the gold in a surprise win. Fischer failed to medal indoors and runner up Ryan Gil didn't even run the mile. Mallon and Lefebure, despite very fast 800 performances outdoors, did not repeat as the champions they were indoors. In 2009 and 2008 Ivo Milic and Max Kaulbach were not a part of the PIAA and their mile state championships went undefended come outdoors. Elliot Rhodes struggled outdoors and couldn't bring home the AA gold after his 2008 800m championship. Josh Izewski and Bobby Micikas both missed the gold outdoors in the 3200m after great indoor championship performances. Only Tom Mallon as a junior managed to defend his indoor state title (in a slower time admittedly) with an 800m gold in the winter and spring.
That being said, the relay teams have had much better luck. In 2007 and 2008 North Penn won both the indoor and outdoor state titles in the 4x800m. In 2009 CB South followed their near record setting performance indoor with a jaw dropping 7:33 outdoors. And in 2011 CB West managed another gold in the 4x800m. Abington's 2010 indoor state championship squad was 2nd outdoors to only Cedar Crest, who didn't compete at the indoor championships that year. Good news for Pennridge.
That being said Great Valley looks like they will continue the streak of DMR teams that have not run relays outdoors. In 2011, state champions Wissahickon didn't run a relay at states or a DMR at Penn Relays. The 2010 state champions Henderson also didn't run a relay at states or a DMR at Penn. The 2008 and 2007 state champions LaSalle and Henderson each tried for Penn Relays gold, but missed out to other PA teams. Then each school went on to be absent from the 4x8 at outdoor stats. Only the 2009 Upper Dublin team went on to achieve victory in the Penn Relays and a hard fought 2nd place in the 4x8 in a 7:40 clocking.
We already know that this year Dustin Wilson will not be able to defend his title outdoors as he is not in the PIAA. Haneef Hardy will be challenged again outdoors after what some might call an upset victory in the 800m. And of course Ned Willig should once again have to face off against state meet record holder Drew Magaha at 1600m.
No matter what happens, it should be an exciting spring.
Something that I thought was worth noting: indoor state champions have struggled to repeat with victories outdoors. Let's look back a year to 2011 at states. On the distance side Gil and Endress took the individual titles, but come outdoors both struggled to come home with golds again. In fact state champion and state runner up in the 3200m Glenn Burkhardt and Zach Hebda both were completely absent from the indoor season. Magaha and Cho both were outside the top 3 at PSU before taking home the gold at Shippensburg.
And last year was not a fluke year by any means. In 2010 Rad Gunzenhauser was an easy winner in the 3k indoors, but faded to 5th outdoors as Matt Fischer took home the gold in a surprise win. Fischer failed to medal indoors and runner up Ryan Gil didn't even run the mile. Mallon and Lefebure, despite very fast 800 performances outdoors, did not repeat as the champions they were indoors. In 2009 and 2008 Ivo Milic and Max Kaulbach were not a part of the PIAA and their mile state championships went undefended come outdoors. Elliot Rhodes struggled outdoors and couldn't bring home the AA gold after his 2008 800m championship. Josh Izewski and Bobby Micikas both missed the gold outdoors in the 3200m after great indoor championship performances. Only Tom Mallon as a junior managed to defend his indoor state title (in a slower time admittedly) with an 800m gold in the winter and spring.
That being said, the relay teams have had much better luck. In 2007 and 2008 North Penn won both the indoor and outdoor state titles in the 4x800m. In 2009 CB South followed their near record setting performance indoor with a jaw dropping 7:33 outdoors. And in 2011 CB West managed another gold in the 4x800m. Abington's 2010 indoor state championship squad was 2nd outdoors to only Cedar Crest, who didn't compete at the indoor championships that year. Good news for Pennridge.
That being said Great Valley looks like they will continue the streak of DMR teams that have not run relays outdoors. In 2011, state champions Wissahickon didn't run a relay at states or a DMR at Penn Relays. The 2010 state champions Henderson also didn't run a relay at states or a DMR at Penn. The 2008 and 2007 state champions LaSalle and Henderson each tried for Penn Relays gold, but missed out to other PA teams. Then each school went on to be absent from the 4x8 at outdoor stats. Only the 2009 Upper Dublin team went on to achieve victory in the Penn Relays and a hard fought 2nd place in the 4x8 in a 7:40 clocking.
We already know that this year Dustin Wilson will not be able to defend his title outdoors as he is not in the PIAA. Haneef Hardy will be challenged again outdoors after what some might call an upset victory in the 800m. And of course Ned Willig should once again have to face off against state meet record holder Drew Magaha at 1600m.
No matter what happens, it should be an exciting spring.
Watching Some Videos
So right now I literally have two tabs up and I am going to watch some of the race videos and then write about my first impressions after watching them.
Just watched the mile.
First off gotta give credit to Moran for pushing this thing in the middle, but unfortunately that kind of tactical error end up costing him a higher podium finish as I think he realized how much he had left a little too late in the race. Willig ran great of course, but was definitely tying up a bit as he came to the finish. That's what made the finish look so close. Willig kind of took off earlier but when Huemmler passed Coyle the two really closed the gap. Huemmler helped pull Coyle to that fast time with his big move at the end, Coyle just has a bit more speed right now it seems. Both kids will be fun to watch next year. Great close by Steiner, he didn't get caught up in any of the fancy moves he just stayed out of trouble, saved energy and proved why he is a game, and definitely a guy to watch in the 3200 outdoors (no Dustin Wilson people). Tony Russell is going to be good, I think everyone agrees about that. He was in this race for a while. He just needs the experience. Jaskowak of course, good solid racing. He, I believe, will also benefit from a move to the 3200m come outdoors.
Just watched the 3k.
So obviously there is reason Dustin Wilson won my little side poll over here and the kid took care of business. Easily won that race and I take it slowed down a bit in the middle there but it is easy to do that when you are winning by that much. Looked comfortable crossing the finish line which makes me think he is thinking gold at NBIN in the near future. I can't imagine his best is 8:39, he can run that in his sleep (ironically that is the only way I can run that fast, in my dreams) so I expect to see much faster soon. Hibbs had a nice finish, Aziz had some guts but perhaps a little too ambitious. Brendan I think ran smart, he just isn't quite ready to beat these guys. But this is his first indoor season and there is only so much a swimmer can do. Ferruzzi of course sat back and picked people off, that's how I've seen him run his best. Kind of stuck in no man's land for a bit. Same for Kuchta. He ran solid, mixed it up and should be a factor outdoors for a medal. The rest of that race really developed nicely in the race for the medal. They had a good pack going and it was a sprint to the line decided by less than a hundreth of a second in one case. DeBarbarie is a gamer, gotta respect this guy. Three hard 3ks in a row and he comes out with an 8:55 and outkicks some really talented guys.
I told myself I didn't want to see it, but I just watched the 4x8.
Now I probably sound pretty babyish, but I am pretty upset that I didn't jump on this team for the W earlier. I need to get a bit more guts. But that's all I'm gonna say, I'm done talking about me. To the race. Pennridge really went out and dominated this race. Tons of confidence, came on strong at the right time. Penncrest was a little underwhelming, but they are adjusting to this stage and being the favorite. Some pressure will be off them come outdoors. Looked like great back legs for CB West (although it was hard to tell with lots of yellow) but they were behind early and made up a lot of ground. Didn't expect this at all from those guys so very impressive. I'm guessing Metzler had a pretty solid split. North Penn ran tough as always, LaSalle just too tired to overcome the deficit in the early stages. MacCauley looked like he had a solid anchor leg on the double, looked like a bit of a rough weekend for Trimble. Again hard to tell because they were wearing uniforms that were very different from the usual. And of course Strath Haven did well, better than I thought they would manage. I'd say Huemmler had a pretty impressive day, looked like he had a very nice anchor split.
Just watched the mile.
First off gotta give credit to Moran for pushing this thing in the middle, but unfortunately that kind of tactical error end up costing him a higher podium finish as I think he realized how much he had left a little too late in the race. Willig ran great of course, but was definitely tying up a bit as he came to the finish. That's what made the finish look so close. Willig kind of took off earlier but when Huemmler passed Coyle the two really closed the gap. Huemmler helped pull Coyle to that fast time with his big move at the end, Coyle just has a bit more speed right now it seems. Both kids will be fun to watch next year. Great close by Steiner, he didn't get caught up in any of the fancy moves he just stayed out of trouble, saved energy and proved why he is a game, and definitely a guy to watch in the 3200 outdoors (no Dustin Wilson people). Tony Russell is going to be good, I think everyone agrees about that. He was in this race for a while. He just needs the experience. Jaskowak of course, good solid racing. He, I believe, will also benefit from a move to the 3200m come outdoors.
Just watched the 3k.
So obviously there is reason Dustin Wilson won my little side poll over here and the kid took care of business. Easily won that race and I take it slowed down a bit in the middle there but it is easy to do that when you are winning by that much. Looked comfortable crossing the finish line which makes me think he is thinking gold at NBIN in the near future. I can't imagine his best is 8:39, he can run that in his sleep (ironically that is the only way I can run that fast, in my dreams) so I expect to see much faster soon. Hibbs had a nice finish, Aziz had some guts but perhaps a little too ambitious. Brendan I think ran smart, he just isn't quite ready to beat these guys. But this is his first indoor season and there is only so much a swimmer can do. Ferruzzi of course sat back and picked people off, that's how I've seen him run his best. Kind of stuck in no man's land for a bit. Same for Kuchta. He ran solid, mixed it up and should be a factor outdoors for a medal. The rest of that race really developed nicely in the race for the medal. They had a good pack going and it was a sprint to the line decided by less than a hundreth of a second in one case. DeBarbarie is a gamer, gotta respect this guy. Three hard 3ks in a row and he comes out with an 8:55 and outkicks some really talented guys.
I told myself I didn't want to see it, but I just watched the 4x8.
Now I probably sound pretty babyish, but I am pretty upset that I didn't jump on this team for the W earlier. I need to get a bit more guts. But that's all I'm gonna say, I'm done talking about me. To the race. Pennridge really went out and dominated this race. Tons of confidence, came on strong at the right time. Penncrest was a little underwhelming, but they are adjusting to this stage and being the favorite. Some pressure will be off them come outdoors. Looked like great back legs for CB West (although it was hard to tell with lots of yellow) but they were behind early and made up a lot of ground. Didn't expect this at all from those guys so very impressive. I'm guessing Metzler had a pretty solid split. North Penn ran tough as always, LaSalle just too tired to overcome the deficit in the early stages. MacCauley looked like he had a solid anchor leg on the double, looked like a bit of a rough weekend for Trimble. Again hard to tell because they were wearing uniforms that were very different from the usual. And of course Strath Haven did well, better than I thought they would manage. I'd say Huemmler had a pretty impressive day, looked like he had a very nice anchor split.
Gut Instincts
I'll be in depth tomorrow. Today I feel like I'm about to puke my guts out from motion sickness and I am lying in my bed in a fit of sadness. So I'll just give you my first reactions.
First of all Piccirillo is a straight boss. Unbelievable time in the mile. Picked her to the win the 3k, wasn't sure how'd that workout but man oh man she was awesome.
Pennridge! I'm kicking myself for not having the balls to go with my gut and pick them to win. Great race, very impressed.
The youngsters Coyle and Huemmler showed some great guts in that mile. Very nice performance for those two. Jaskowak also. Good call Alex Moran.
The O'Hara boys have tough luck at states. Oh well, they will be back outdoors and still be ballers.
Great Valley got the DMR monkey off their back. Good work guys.
Haneef Hardy must have heard everyone talking crap on him. That was sweet victory there. Holder not too bad, he helped me out by showing up.
HGPrep doesn't peak in August anymore, good race bud.
Just want to say that in the girls DMR I randomly guess pretty accurate. Cut me some slack haha.
My fantasy team really suffered from that Shawn Johnson NH but we will deal.
First of all Piccirillo is a straight boss. Unbelievable time in the mile. Picked her to the win the 3k, wasn't sure how'd that workout but man oh man she was awesome.
Pennridge! I'm kicking myself for not having the balls to go with my gut and pick them to win. Great race, very impressed.
The youngsters Coyle and Huemmler showed some great guts in that mile. Very nice performance for those two. Jaskowak also. Good call Alex Moran.
The O'Hara boys have tough luck at states. Oh well, they will be back outdoors and still be ballers.
Great Valley got the DMR monkey off their back. Good work guys.
Haneef Hardy must have heard everyone talking crap on him. That was sweet victory there. Holder not too bad, he helped me out by showing up.
HGPrep doesn't peak in August anymore, good race bud.
Just want to say that in the girls DMR I randomly guess pretty accurate. Cut me some slack haha.
My fantasy team really suffered from that Shawn Johnson NH but we will deal.
States
So with states coming up, I don't want to do anything too fancy today, I've already made my predictions and such for the meet and layed out my thoughts on that which I know best (the distance races). So today I just wanted to say good luck to everyone competing and enjoy and sieze the moment.
It really is a special time. I can still remember my first time going to states as an alternate indoors for the DMR my sophomore year. The first distance race I saw was Max Kaulbach stunning the field by outkicking Crits and McNally over the final 100m. It was such an exciting finish that I called my friend back home at like 10 o'clock in the morning just to tell him about the race. He didn't really care, but I was too excited to notice at the time. Then we watched my teammate run the 800. We ran in after the 60s were done to get front row seats, it was crazy.
And then of course the only state meet I ever ran in came my Senior year indoors. It was definitely one of my favorite experiences in high school track. Penn State's track is fast and a lot of fun to watch races on. That year Mallon outkicked Kehl and Lefeubre surprised in the 800m. I missed Endress nearly take Kellar at the line because I was warming up, but that race was sick too. My teammates came out in the 4x8 with no big expectations and performed very well with 4 PRs. They really took advantage of the opportunity to run on the big stage. After a long meet where I was lucky enough to meet and talk to so many stars of the sport and to get my picture taken with Sam Bernitt and Wade Endress is was finally time to race.
I have never been more nervous than I was waiting in that back area behind the track. I was pacing and trying to stay loose while I watched the other 4x4s step onto the track. We had been placed in the fast heat after O'Hara dropped down a heat and it was very nerve racking. I had never ever been close to being on a stage this big. Being in the fast heat, if we hung tough then we would get a state medal. Stepping out onto the track before the start of the race was unreal, seeing the crowd and hearing the noise, knowing your teammates were just a few feet away. We were the last race of the meet, the very last heat to step on the track.
Unfortunately things didn't work out that race. Our lead off leg got out the best he had all season and was on pace to drop a massive PR. He was up front with the top teams in the race and as I stood there in the second lane waiting for him to round the turn and head for home I was so excited for what we could achieve. But those thoughts ended up just being dreams as the fast opening 200 caught up to our lead off leg and his legs gave out and he fell, just out of my reach from being in the exchange zone. I stood frozen watching him scramble back up, seeing the pain in his face. He still ran a 55 somehow.
It was a heartbreaking two laps knowing that we were out of the race and that we wouldn't finish as high as we thought, but it was a trip I will never forget. It sucks what happened, but it was only because we went for it. We gave it everything we had and we came up short. And honestly that is what counts.
Don't leave this state meet thinking what if. Leave everything you had on the track, and if you fall short, at least you know you gave it everything you had.
Because who knows, you may not get another chance.
It really is a special time. I can still remember my first time going to states as an alternate indoors for the DMR my sophomore year. The first distance race I saw was Max Kaulbach stunning the field by outkicking Crits and McNally over the final 100m. It was such an exciting finish that I called my friend back home at like 10 o'clock in the morning just to tell him about the race. He didn't really care, but I was too excited to notice at the time. Then we watched my teammate run the 800. We ran in after the 60s were done to get front row seats, it was crazy.
And then of course the only state meet I ever ran in came my Senior year indoors. It was definitely one of my favorite experiences in high school track. Penn State's track is fast and a lot of fun to watch races on. That year Mallon outkicked Kehl and Lefeubre surprised in the 800m. I missed Endress nearly take Kellar at the line because I was warming up, but that race was sick too. My teammates came out in the 4x8 with no big expectations and performed very well with 4 PRs. They really took advantage of the opportunity to run on the big stage. After a long meet where I was lucky enough to meet and talk to so many stars of the sport and to get my picture taken with Sam Bernitt and Wade Endress is was finally time to race.
I have never been more nervous than I was waiting in that back area behind the track. I was pacing and trying to stay loose while I watched the other 4x4s step onto the track. We had been placed in the fast heat after O'Hara dropped down a heat and it was very nerve racking. I had never ever been close to being on a stage this big. Being in the fast heat, if we hung tough then we would get a state medal. Stepping out onto the track before the start of the race was unreal, seeing the crowd and hearing the noise, knowing your teammates were just a few feet away. We were the last race of the meet, the very last heat to step on the track.
Unfortunately things didn't work out that race. Our lead off leg got out the best he had all season and was on pace to drop a massive PR. He was up front with the top teams in the race and as I stood there in the second lane waiting for him to round the turn and head for home I was so excited for what we could achieve. But those thoughts ended up just being dreams as the fast opening 200 caught up to our lead off leg and his legs gave out and he fell, just out of my reach from being in the exchange zone. I stood frozen watching him scramble back up, seeing the pain in his face. He still ran a 55 somehow.
It was a heartbreaking two laps knowing that we were out of the race and that we wouldn't finish as high as we thought, but it was a trip I will never forget. It sucks what happened, but it was only because we went for it. We gave it everything we had and we came up short. And honestly that is what counts.
Don't leave this state meet thinking what if. Leave everything you had on the track, and if you fall short, at least you know you gave it everything you had.
Because who knows, you may not get another chance.
Any Questions?
So I've laid out my own thoughts on the states races (some more in depth than others), I've been planning for my indoor fantasy draft tonight, and I have been studying a lot of Art History for my big test today which I am not at all excited about. Not to mention the fact that our conference championships are this Saturday and that performance list just came out last night so I have been waiting for a chance to pick that apart.
But I assume you don't read my blog to find out what's new in my life and what kind of weird habits I get up to, especially at this point in the season. No, I'd imagine that you readers want to hear more about the state championships. I can always tell when it's states time because the number of views on the blog grows exponentially.
But I have said so much to you already about states and bogged you down with names and times and splits and history and a lot of other stuff to the point where you are probably sick of hearing me talk (or I suppose reading me talk is probably more accurate). So my question to you is, do you have any questions for me? I love to talk track and running and all sorts of stuff like that, and heck I'll answer any question you throw at me, even if it's what's my favorite type of cheese or something like that. Today, I think we can agree that I have done enough talking and throwing numbers at you, so let me turn the reigns over to you.
You can comment here, facebook message me, text me, whatever you want and I'll do my best to respond. Hopefully we continue to get some good track talk on here or on penntrack or on track talk, I'll be checking all three (although I won't be posting on all three obviously since my penntrack account was shut down). So yeah, enjoy the trackmas as your facebook status's told me it was to be called.
Peace.
PS Happy Birthday to my bud Francis Ferruzzi, good luck this weekend
But I assume you don't read my blog to find out what's new in my life and what kind of weird habits I get up to, especially at this point in the season. No, I'd imagine that you readers want to hear more about the state championships. I can always tell when it's states time because the number of views on the blog grows exponentially.
But I have said so much to you already about states and bogged you down with names and times and splits and history and a lot of other stuff to the point where you are probably sick of hearing me talk (or I suppose reading me talk is probably more accurate). So my question to you is, do you have any questions for me? I love to talk track and running and all sorts of stuff like that, and heck I'll answer any question you throw at me, even if it's what's my favorite type of cheese or something like that. Today, I think we can agree that I have done enough talking and throwing numbers at you, so let me turn the reigns over to you.
You can comment here, facebook message me, text me, whatever you want and I'll do my best to respond. Hopefully we continue to get some good track talk on here or on penntrack or on track talk, I'll be checking all three (although I won't be posting on all three obviously since my penntrack account was shut down). So yeah, enjoy the trackmas as your facebook status's told me it was to be called.
Peace.
PS Happy Birthday to my bud Francis Ferruzzi, good luck this weekend
Last In Depth
Let's see if I have a change of heart again at the end of this post. I think I'm more confident in these predictions than my other ones. But I kind of agonize over this stuff, so no guarantees.
First off I want to say this race has opened up for Great Valley to win. The other top teams all dropped into the 4x8 and none of their other top rivals have decided to run a relay that is fresher than Great Valley's besides Altoona. Everybody else has at least one guy doubling if not more.
Altoona's time last weekend kind of came from nowhere, and although they have had DMR success before, I'm not sure I'm confident in Replogle to take down Willig in the anchor leg. I hope Great Valley isn't planning anything fancy with their order. I do like Altoona and I understand their value as an upset pick here in predictions, but I can't quite bring myself to do it.
Henderson has some pieces. Their DMR was ran without even their best pieces in the right places. Russell has sub 4:20 potential on the anchor if he were to run it fresh (which he's not) and Chaborek could be the best lead off leg in the race if he's fresh (which he's not). So Henderson falls to second on my board without the fresh legs they need in my opinion to hold off a late charge from Willig and co.
It's just like when I picked CB West two years in a row. The second time it worked out. Hopefully same thing happens here.
But the rest of the race should be interesting too. A fresh CR North could have really made noise here, I'm on the Felt and Zingarini bandwagon as I have said in other posts before, but I don't know if a doubling group like this is in 10:30ish shape and so they slip down the board.
Aziz running the 3k and Wistar not running the mile, makes me think GFS has some tricks up their sleeve for this DMR. I think they think they can run equally fast without Aziz so there are obviously some other pieces here. Unfortunately, I can't see them, and I can't imagine things panning out amazingly well for the squad. But as always they will be a factor to contend with in the race.
North Allegheny may have been my pick for the win if they had a fresh squad on the track, but I have since dropped them well down the list. I still see them in the 10:30s at the meet because I think Tonzo and Steiner are both top notch relay legs, but the doubling scares me a bit. Plus the WPIAL has struggled to grab top notch hardware in the DMR at states. Penn Hills, NA, Pitts CC, Baldwin all come to mind over recent years.
Holy Ghost Prep is a major sleeper here. Only Horgan is doubling and he should still be one of the top 1200 legs in this race (assuming Willig is anchoring) and he should keep his team out front. Kardish is fresh and should have a surprising leg in him. HG Prep most likely will be in the lead or close to it going into the anchor leg, the way I add up the splits. Unfortunately I don't see Israel as a guy who can bring it home against these anchors. But if he has a great day like he did at XC states, watch out for Holy Ghost.
The last few teams are all solid (Kiski is a big sleeper if Kennedy and Lednak are good to go) but I am not particularly enamored with any. Trinity has a fresh bunch and some confidence so they will probably end up on or near the medal stand. Haverford and Bonner hopefully will hang tough and have fun. Not sure if they are on the same level of most of these teams. Again, I have a bib, people, I am prepared to eat my words.
Just want to throw one disclaimer out there. There is a chance Henderson will run Russell to the 4 to Chaborek to Collins again at states because those early guys are doubling. If that is the case (and they have surprised me with their order before) I think they will drop a bit in time. Maybe not place, but probably time. Or it's possible they may run great. I just don't think Collins can hang with these other anchors. He's not on Israel's level, so it would be tough to be on Willig's or Steiner's or Replogle's or Wistar's.
That being said, here are my thoughts with times:
1. Great Valley 10:22
2. Henderson 10:27
3. Altoona 10:28
4. HG Prep 10:29
5. GFS 10:35
6. NA 10:36
7. CR North 10:38
8. Trinity 10:45
First off I want to say this race has opened up for Great Valley to win. The other top teams all dropped into the 4x8 and none of their other top rivals have decided to run a relay that is fresher than Great Valley's besides Altoona. Everybody else has at least one guy doubling if not more.
Altoona's time last weekend kind of came from nowhere, and although they have had DMR success before, I'm not sure I'm confident in Replogle to take down Willig in the anchor leg. I hope Great Valley isn't planning anything fancy with their order. I do like Altoona and I understand their value as an upset pick here in predictions, but I can't quite bring myself to do it.
Henderson has some pieces. Their DMR was ran without even their best pieces in the right places. Russell has sub 4:20 potential on the anchor if he were to run it fresh (which he's not) and Chaborek could be the best lead off leg in the race if he's fresh (which he's not). So Henderson falls to second on my board without the fresh legs they need in my opinion to hold off a late charge from Willig and co.
It's just like when I picked CB West two years in a row. The second time it worked out. Hopefully same thing happens here.
But the rest of the race should be interesting too. A fresh CR North could have really made noise here, I'm on the Felt and Zingarini bandwagon as I have said in other posts before, but I don't know if a doubling group like this is in 10:30ish shape and so they slip down the board.
Aziz running the 3k and Wistar not running the mile, makes me think GFS has some tricks up their sleeve for this DMR. I think they think they can run equally fast without Aziz so there are obviously some other pieces here. Unfortunately, I can't see them, and I can't imagine things panning out amazingly well for the squad. But as always they will be a factor to contend with in the race.
North Allegheny may have been my pick for the win if they had a fresh squad on the track, but I have since dropped them well down the list. I still see them in the 10:30s at the meet because I think Tonzo and Steiner are both top notch relay legs, but the doubling scares me a bit. Plus the WPIAL has struggled to grab top notch hardware in the DMR at states. Penn Hills, NA, Pitts CC, Baldwin all come to mind over recent years.
Holy Ghost Prep is a major sleeper here. Only Horgan is doubling and he should still be one of the top 1200 legs in this race (assuming Willig is anchoring) and he should keep his team out front. Kardish is fresh and should have a surprising leg in him. HG Prep most likely will be in the lead or close to it going into the anchor leg, the way I add up the splits. Unfortunately I don't see Israel as a guy who can bring it home against these anchors. But if he has a great day like he did at XC states, watch out for Holy Ghost.
The last few teams are all solid (Kiski is a big sleeper if Kennedy and Lednak are good to go) but I am not particularly enamored with any. Trinity has a fresh bunch and some confidence so they will probably end up on or near the medal stand. Haverford and Bonner hopefully will hang tough and have fun. Not sure if they are on the same level of most of these teams. Again, I have a bib, people, I am prepared to eat my words.
Just want to throw one disclaimer out there. There is a chance Henderson will run Russell to the 4 to Chaborek to Collins again at states because those early guys are doubling. If that is the case (and they have surprised me with their order before) I think they will drop a bit in time. Maybe not place, but probably time. Or it's possible they may run great. I just don't think Collins can hang with these other anchors. He's not on Israel's level, so it would be tough to be on Willig's or Steiner's or Replogle's or Wistar's.
That being said, here are my thoughts with times:
1. Great Valley 10:22
2. Henderson 10:27
3. Altoona 10:28
4. HG Prep 10:29
5. GFS 10:35
6. NA 10:36
7. CR North 10:38
8. Trinity 10:45
4x800m
Alright so I'm trying to knock all of these out now, we shall see how it goes. This one will probably take way too long and I won't get to the DMR until tomorrow, so I guess we will just have to wait it out a little bit.
When it comes to the relays at indoor states I have always been a fan of picking fresh bodies to win over tired legs. That's why I picked the boys from CB West each of the past two years (once it worked, once it didn't) to beat Abington in the 4x8. So this gives me two relays out front that are both completely fresh and both on great hot streaks. And both also start with Penn. That would of course be Penncrest and Pennridge. I was really tempted to go upset here and pick Pennridge to win but I thought better of it. This race should be pretty awesome out front if all unfolds well. This race went from what I thought would be quiet the down heat, to a potentially great showdown. Maybe not super fast times (although it is possible, I just doubt it) but definitely quite an anchor leg race.
So I ultimately decided Penncrest was the best pick here for the win. #2 seed, 4 fresh legs, balanced attack, good potential here. I think Emmanuel could have a big breakout race and open things up during his leg to makes things interesting. I don't know which leg he runs, but his leg will be most important without a doubt. For Strath Haven I still have them second, barely over Pennridge. It pains me to do this because I am really in love with the Pennridge 4x8 right now, but I can't pull myself away from Strath Haven's PA #1 time and the fact that Seelaus will be fresh which I wasn't previously expecting. I think Huemmler will barely hold of Logue at the finish in a tight group.
And this left LaSalle for 4th! Obviously I'm going to look very stupid if LaSalle takes down the gold, but this young squad in my mind has next year for gold and they are not ready to take down the title just yet. A doubling Coyle and Stone, the teams two power legs, could be costly. They had a 2:05 leg last time out which I expect to drop, but that's a big liability for those guys at the end. And if Coyle and Stone have taken down top 3 finishes each like expected, there will be a little less fire in them at the end of the race. Obviously I think they will be right there in that pack, but I think the Penn's fresh legs will hold them off. Strath Haven too I guess. Ugh this was a tough pick to me.
At 5th it was kind of almost a default pick here with North Penn. They have a couple guys doubling so I don't think they can win but between Trimble, MacCauley and the other guys I have seen run some solid times open, they should be down around 8 flat or under which will put them in 5th place fairly easily, but also should leave them out of contention for the win.
I'm a big DT West fan, been on the bandwagon for a while now, and although I don't like the doubling by Leidel, I think this team can put together a surprising finish at states. There is also potential here for me to eat my words (CB West looked pretty sharp last weekend), but I hope that my gut instinct is correct. Jenkins is kind of a sleeper pick to run a solid anchor leg and help this team cross the finish line with a medal. Still think they were built more for a DMR.
I have CB West at 7th behind some quality running by Nico Metzler and company. Really on the Metzler bandwagon and I hope he has a big day. CB West couldn't have lost everything from a team that set the state record last year. I mean technically they lost everything, but when you are that good out front the JV guys would be A team guys most anywhere else.
Not feeling O'Hara, maybe they can run fast without those 3k guys, but I'm not sure I'm buying in right now. Potential, again, for me to take a fork and get fat from eating my words.
Last medal spot I having going to Penn Hills. Two great legs. But they are on the double. Is that enough to earn the team a medal? It's enough to make me think they have too much potential not to throw them on the list.
Now here is my brief little problem statement that I have to make before putting up the final times. I anticipate 2 heats divided so that top 9 are in the fast section, the second 9 in the low section (putting the cut off at Connor Harriman, just kidding I'm hilarious, but seriously the cut off is at DT West). That helps DT West's cause and makes me think they can medal. If they are in the slow heat I think they are just as capable, but it's hard to say for sure what will be going through this squads head.
Any who I don't see O'Hara or Lower Moreland making enough noise out of the fast heat to hold off whichever kids win the slow section. I've got Penn Hills but rumor has it Chambersburg is going to be in that mix. Paul Robeson maybe will surprise out of that group, they've got some pieces. And hey when did Abington get in there? You never know with a school like that.
My top 8 teams with time projections (while I was writing this I decided I changed my mind, screw it I'm going for it):
1. Penncrest 7:52
2. Pennridge 7:53
3. LaSalle 7:54
4. Strath Haven 7:55
5. North Penn 7:59
6. CB West 8:01
7. DT West 8:05
8. Penn Hills 8:08
When it comes to the relays at indoor states I have always been a fan of picking fresh bodies to win over tired legs. That's why I picked the boys from CB West each of the past two years (once it worked, once it didn't) to beat Abington in the 4x8. So this gives me two relays out front that are both completely fresh and both on great hot streaks. And both also start with Penn. That would of course be Penncrest and Pennridge. I was really tempted to go upset here and pick Pennridge to win but I thought better of it. This race should be pretty awesome out front if all unfolds well. This race went from what I thought would be quiet the down heat, to a potentially great showdown. Maybe not super fast times (although it is possible, I just doubt it) but definitely quite an anchor leg race.
So I ultimately decided Penncrest was the best pick here for the win. #2 seed, 4 fresh legs, balanced attack, good potential here. I think Emmanuel could have a big breakout race and open things up during his leg to makes things interesting. I don't know which leg he runs, but his leg will be most important without a doubt. For Strath Haven I still have them second, barely over Pennridge. It pains me to do this because I am really in love with the Pennridge 4x8 right now, but I can't pull myself away from Strath Haven's PA #1 time and the fact that Seelaus will be fresh which I wasn't previously expecting. I think Huemmler will barely hold of Logue at the finish in a tight group.
And this left LaSalle for 4th! Obviously I'm going to look very stupid if LaSalle takes down the gold, but this young squad in my mind has next year for gold and they are not ready to take down the title just yet. A doubling Coyle and Stone, the teams two power legs, could be costly. They had a 2:05 leg last time out which I expect to drop, but that's a big liability for those guys at the end. And if Coyle and Stone have taken down top 3 finishes each like expected, there will be a little less fire in them at the end of the race. Obviously I think they will be right there in that pack, but I think the Penn's fresh legs will hold them off. Strath Haven too I guess. Ugh this was a tough pick to me.
At 5th it was kind of almost a default pick here with North Penn. They have a couple guys doubling so I don't think they can win but between Trimble, MacCauley and the other guys I have seen run some solid times open, they should be down around 8 flat or under which will put them in 5th place fairly easily, but also should leave them out of contention for the win.
I'm a big DT West fan, been on the bandwagon for a while now, and although I don't like the doubling by Leidel, I think this team can put together a surprising finish at states. There is also potential here for me to eat my words (CB West looked pretty sharp last weekend), but I hope that my gut instinct is correct. Jenkins is kind of a sleeper pick to run a solid anchor leg and help this team cross the finish line with a medal. Still think they were built more for a DMR.
I have CB West at 7th behind some quality running by Nico Metzler and company. Really on the Metzler bandwagon and I hope he has a big day. CB West couldn't have lost everything from a team that set the state record last year. I mean technically they lost everything, but when you are that good out front the JV guys would be A team guys most anywhere else.
Not feeling O'Hara, maybe they can run fast without those 3k guys, but I'm not sure I'm buying in right now. Potential, again, for me to take a fork and get fat from eating my words.
Last medal spot I having going to Penn Hills. Two great legs. But they are on the double. Is that enough to earn the team a medal? It's enough to make me think they have too much potential not to throw them on the list.
Now here is my brief little problem statement that I have to make before putting up the final times. I anticipate 2 heats divided so that top 9 are in the fast section, the second 9 in the low section (putting the cut off at Connor Harriman, just kidding I'm hilarious, but seriously the cut off is at DT West). That helps DT West's cause and makes me think they can medal. If they are in the slow heat I think they are just as capable, but it's hard to say for sure what will be going through this squads head.
Any who I don't see O'Hara or Lower Moreland making enough noise out of the fast heat to hold off whichever kids win the slow section. I've got Penn Hills but rumor has it Chambersburg is going to be in that mix. Paul Robeson maybe will surprise out of that group, they've got some pieces. And hey when did Abington get in there? You never know with a school like that.
My top 8 teams with time projections (while I was writing this I decided I changed my mind, screw it I'm going for it):
1. Penncrest 7:52
2. Pennridge 7:53
3. LaSalle 7:54
4. Strath Haven 7:55
5. North Penn 7:59
6. CB West 8:01
7. DT West 8:05
8. Penn Hills 8:08
A Litt More A Little More In Depth
So it's 3k time here at the blog and this post hopefully won't drag on longer than it needs to. Fresh Dustin Wilson against a field of guys who are solid place holders to finish around him. I don't even know if I have a Tom Trainer this year who I think will surprise and hold on for a while and make things interesting. Scratch that, I do. Sam Hibbs has really taken some big steps of late. He didn't have the finish to his XC season that many were expecting, but obviously he has come back fit and ready for action. He ran an 8:50ish a while ago and has run a few very nice miles on Lehigh's track for the win. Plus this guy came into the season as the top returner from states in the outdoor 3200 and XC so it's not like he's some breakout star.
But still this is Dustin's race to lose and I can't imagine him doing so. He should go out hard and be looking at possible record pace (the meet record is no joke, it's sub 9 pace) and then he will look to hold on. We shall see. Maybe he will race it strategically, but the guy hasn't dropped a bomb yet all season so I think it would be pretty surprising if he just hung in tough and waiting til 1k to go to show off his strength.
But this will be more than just a one man show. In O'Hara's case it will be a 3 man show with Savage, Bilotta and Pitone, the team's top 3 XC guys at states who all finished in the top 35. Savage has to be the guy to watch out of the group. Pitone and Bilotta have been busy running a lot of 3ks of late and Bilotta may struggle to run back to back quality 3k performances. I think these guys will get out hard, but I'm hoping not too hard. If Wilson is going out in 4:30, I think Savage and Bilotta would be really shooting themselves in the foot from a 4:35. But I think enough of the race will develop that they shouldn't have to do that and be competitive.
As we move on now to the boys from the TSTCA, Shearn, Kuchta and Martin. Gosh, these guys make me sigh dramatically. Let's start with Shearn who, as the defending state champion for AA XC obviously has gotten the most talk. He has had a couple nice 3k runs this season including his qualifying time and clearly in good shape to compete for a top 3 spot. BUT he is a bit more of a trials guy than a track guy, and may be getting overhyped from all the talk surrounding his big win. It's tough to pick this guy outside the top 5, but the big question is how high will he go? I have him slotted currently at 3rd but second is definitely a possiblity. Kuctha comes in with the fastest 3200m PR outside of Dustin Wilson. Pretty big number for a guy who is getting absolutely no love so far. He's gotta be a sleeper pick at states. Now he didn't race well last weekend, but I think that was just because of his doubling off the DMR effort. He has the potential to hit in the 8:40s and run great, but he also has the potential to do what a lot of Baldwin guys have done indoors and just come up a bit short. You look at Hobart, Degregorio and all their relays and they haven't quite clicked to take Gold or even Silver and Bronze indoors. Martin is a guy who I'm honestly not sure about. I can't imagine he'd be outside of that 8-13 range however based on the names around him.
So what to make of Sam Aziz? Well obviously GFS likes his chances if they are dropping him from the relay to let him run this 3k. He dropped one hot time in a 3200 and really that's all we have seen from the guy. He has potential (he was on my top 50 at the beginning of the XC season before I was told he wasn't running in the states) and he is one of the few people that Dustin Wilson can call "rivals" as they have faced off in a few match ups in the independent league. He comes from a school with lots of 3k prowess, but I think he had one great day and we may be making a bit too much out of it. I have decided, thus to proceed with caution.
So who's left? Brett Kelly on the double from the mile? Maybe a surprise here, but I'm expecting a blow up. DeBarbarbie and Ferruzzi the 3k for the third straight week? DeBarbarie looks like he is on the verge of a break out race, but he has just missed the 9 minute mark twice now. It seems like that may be his potential, and two all out races indicate that. As for Ferruzzi, I'm probably being a huge homer on this pick, but the kid ran 9:05 uncontested and then ran 9:06 doubling from the mile with no enthusiasm for the sport. He is super excited to be in (and super lucky, if I'm being honest he probably shouldn't be here in the first place) and sometimes those are the guys who surprise the other people who feel a little more entitled. He beat Bilotta earlier in the season at Burdette and he beat him at Glenn Mills in the mile, and Bilotta is the 2 seed. Just confirming the thought that anything can happen in this 3k. Lastly, Nissley ran a great time earlier in the season, but I haven't seen anything from him since. Could run great once again at this track, or could be a non factor. I figure probably somewhere in between and somewhere around that 8:58 time once again.
So here's my projected medalists and projected times:
1. Wilson 8:26
2. Hibbs 8:38
3. Shearn 8:42
4. Aziz 8:47
5. Savage 8:51
6. Kuchta 8:52
7. Bilotta 8:55
8. Ferruzzi 8:57
But still this is Dustin's race to lose and I can't imagine him doing so. He should go out hard and be looking at possible record pace (the meet record is no joke, it's sub 9 pace) and then he will look to hold on. We shall see. Maybe he will race it strategically, but the guy hasn't dropped a bomb yet all season so I think it would be pretty surprising if he just hung in tough and waiting til 1k to go to show off his strength.
But this will be more than just a one man show. In O'Hara's case it will be a 3 man show with Savage, Bilotta and Pitone, the team's top 3 XC guys at states who all finished in the top 35. Savage has to be the guy to watch out of the group. Pitone and Bilotta have been busy running a lot of 3ks of late and Bilotta may struggle to run back to back quality 3k performances. I think these guys will get out hard, but I'm hoping not too hard. If Wilson is going out in 4:30, I think Savage and Bilotta would be really shooting themselves in the foot from a 4:35. But I think enough of the race will develop that they shouldn't have to do that and be competitive.
As we move on now to the boys from the TSTCA, Shearn, Kuchta and Martin. Gosh, these guys make me sigh dramatically. Let's start with Shearn who, as the defending state champion for AA XC obviously has gotten the most talk. He has had a couple nice 3k runs this season including his qualifying time and clearly in good shape to compete for a top 3 spot. BUT he is a bit more of a trials guy than a track guy, and may be getting overhyped from all the talk surrounding his big win. It's tough to pick this guy outside the top 5, but the big question is how high will he go? I have him slotted currently at 3rd but second is definitely a possiblity. Kuctha comes in with the fastest 3200m PR outside of Dustin Wilson. Pretty big number for a guy who is getting absolutely no love so far. He's gotta be a sleeper pick at states. Now he didn't race well last weekend, but I think that was just because of his doubling off the DMR effort. He has the potential to hit in the 8:40s and run great, but he also has the potential to do what a lot of Baldwin guys have done indoors and just come up a bit short. You look at Hobart, Degregorio and all their relays and they haven't quite clicked to take Gold or even Silver and Bronze indoors. Martin is a guy who I'm honestly not sure about. I can't imagine he'd be outside of that 8-13 range however based on the names around him.
So what to make of Sam Aziz? Well obviously GFS likes his chances if they are dropping him from the relay to let him run this 3k. He dropped one hot time in a 3200 and really that's all we have seen from the guy. He has potential (he was on my top 50 at the beginning of the XC season before I was told he wasn't running in the states) and he is one of the few people that Dustin Wilson can call "rivals" as they have faced off in a few match ups in the independent league. He comes from a school with lots of 3k prowess, but I think he had one great day and we may be making a bit too much out of it. I have decided, thus to proceed with caution.
So who's left? Brett Kelly on the double from the mile? Maybe a surprise here, but I'm expecting a blow up. DeBarbarbie and Ferruzzi the 3k for the third straight week? DeBarbarie looks like he is on the verge of a break out race, but he has just missed the 9 minute mark twice now. It seems like that may be his potential, and two all out races indicate that. As for Ferruzzi, I'm probably being a huge homer on this pick, but the kid ran 9:05 uncontested and then ran 9:06 doubling from the mile with no enthusiasm for the sport. He is super excited to be in (and super lucky, if I'm being honest he probably shouldn't be here in the first place) and sometimes those are the guys who surprise the other people who feel a little more entitled. He beat Bilotta earlier in the season at Burdette and he beat him at Glenn Mills in the mile, and Bilotta is the 2 seed. Just confirming the thought that anything can happen in this 3k. Lastly, Nissley ran a great time earlier in the season, but I haven't seen anything from him since. Could run great once again at this track, or could be a non factor. I figure probably somewhere in between and somewhere around that 8:58 time once again.
So here's my projected medalists and projected times:
1. Wilson 8:26
2. Hibbs 8:38
3. Shearn 8:42
4. Aziz 8:47
5. Savage 8:51
6. Kuchta 8:52
7. Bilotta 8:55
8. Ferruzzi 8:57
A Little More More In Depth
So first off I wanted to say it looks like Penntrack is picking up a bit with the forums so if you are looking for a place other than this to talk states predictions that may not be a bad start. Also you can feel free to go on track talk, but we don't really have much going right now. I check everyday and I will be glad to jump in any convo over there. We got a few good posters on there already and hopefully we will add a few more in the near future.
But enough about that on to the predictions.
So in the 800 there are just 22 entries, which most likely indicates just 2 heats.
I'll assume the top heat features 10 guys and the first heat features the other 12, making the cut off once again at Connor Harriman.
So in the slow section, it is indeed likely that someone will surprise and sneak up to grab a medal. Every year somebody in one of the slow sections drops a 1:56 or so and surprises their way onto the medal stand seemingly out of nowhere. Last year it was guys like Craig Cassey who got the job done. This year it's hard to predict exactly who I think will do the job. Kunzweiler obviously has to be in the conversation as a state medalist in XC and a guy with a 1:56 PR, but he isn't exactly on a hot streak of late after the let down at Kevin Dare and the Carnival. He is still the guy to watch in my opinion because of his potential, but I don't see him on the medal stand. Zach Moon could be a factor. He ran his time all alone out front and might have been on the double? Can't remember if that was him or one of his teammates, but he is a sleeper pick in the race. Also Brooks may finally have a bounce back race, he is struggled a bit of late in the mile, but his race is clearly the 800 and his seed time is from way back in January.
Ultimately I'll take Moon to win the heat wtih Kunzweiler and Brooks following him with the Robeson kids also in the mix. None of these guys, unfortunately do I predict to be medalists when all is said and done.
On to the fast heat. No Ned Willig and a fresh Haneef Hardy make for an interesting field. Hardy has been beaten the last two weekends by Holder and Stiles, but he does have a 1:55 PR and a 1:19 blazing 600m. I'd imagine he and Horgan will be the guys doing the work out front. The Penn Hills guys won't be afraid to run out front either, and this thing should be fast from the gun. Stone and Holder will probably sit back a bit at the beginning and I think that will ultimately pay off when all is said and done. I see Holder holding off (yeah it's a pun) Stone over the final straightaway on the kick to take the title. I am a big fan of Stone, but something about Holder's added championship race experience I think will pay off. Both Penn Hills guys are favorites of mine in this race, especially Baily who I think will bounce back from a down week last week against his teammate. Horgan has had a lot of quality top finishes this season and he should be able to hang tough and pull out a top finish even if he can't hold off some of the kicks from the other top guys. 1:56.9 flat track is moving. Rivera and Dickson have the hot hand lately. They have been tearing it up and that is dangerous because Rivera is a 1:53 guy outdoors last season who came on at the right time just like he is this indoor season. Meanwhile Dickson has dropped a lot of time in the past few weeks going from around 2:04 to 2 flat to 1:59 (the next day after the 2 flat I believe) down to 1:58. CB South does pretty well with 800 guys and I think this is just another in the line of successes. So that leaves Hardy, Trimble and Harriman in the fast heat. Trimble was a guy I was super high on early in the year, but he hasn't had anything to impressive me in a while now and has had very few open results in general. He runs for North Penn and he's an 800 guy (was on my sleepers last year and performed well) so anything can happen, but I'm off the bandwagon this year. Hardy is kind of overrated in my mind. As overrated as a 1:55 and 1:19 can be I guess, considering he has posted some awesome times. But I just haven't seen a great race against the competition here in state, just the competition at the armory. This is a banked track so maybe he will benefit, but I feel its more likely these other kids finally catch up to him. And lastly Harriman is on the double so I don't see him doing much.
When all is said and done here's how I see the 800 finishers with projected times:
1. Holder 1:54.2
2. Stone 1:54.4
3. Horgan 1:54.7
4. Baily 1:55.3
5. Hardy 1:55.4
6. Rivera 1:55.8
7. Dickson 1:56.5
8. Squirees 1:56.7
But enough about that on to the predictions.
So in the 800 there are just 22 entries, which most likely indicates just 2 heats.
I'll assume the top heat features 10 guys and the first heat features the other 12, making the cut off once again at Connor Harriman.
So in the slow section, it is indeed likely that someone will surprise and sneak up to grab a medal. Every year somebody in one of the slow sections drops a 1:56 or so and surprises their way onto the medal stand seemingly out of nowhere. Last year it was guys like Craig Cassey who got the job done. This year it's hard to predict exactly who I think will do the job. Kunzweiler obviously has to be in the conversation as a state medalist in XC and a guy with a 1:56 PR, but he isn't exactly on a hot streak of late after the let down at Kevin Dare and the Carnival. He is still the guy to watch in my opinion because of his potential, but I don't see him on the medal stand. Zach Moon could be a factor. He ran his time all alone out front and might have been on the double? Can't remember if that was him or one of his teammates, but he is a sleeper pick in the race. Also Brooks may finally have a bounce back race, he is struggled a bit of late in the mile, but his race is clearly the 800 and his seed time is from way back in January.
Ultimately I'll take Moon to win the heat wtih Kunzweiler and Brooks following him with the Robeson kids also in the mix. None of these guys, unfortunately do I predict to be medalists when all is said and done.
On to the fast heat. No Ned Willig and a fresh Haneef Hardy make for an interesting field. Hardy has been beaten the last two weekends by Holder and Stiles, but he does have a 1:55 PR and a 1:19 blazing 600m. I'd imagine he and Horgan will be the guys doing the work out front. The Penn Hills guys won't be afraid to run out front either, and this thing should be fast from the gun. Stone and Holder will probably sit back a bit at the beginning and I think that will ultimately pay off when all is said and done. I see Holder holding off (yeah it's a pun) Stone over the final straightaway on the kick to take the title. I am a big fan of Stone, but something about Holder's added championship race experience I think will pay off. Both Penn Hills guys are favorites of mine in this race, especially Baily who I think will bounce back from a down week last week against his teammate. Horgan has had a lot of quality top finishes this season and he should be able to hang tough and pull out a top finish even if he can't hold off some of the kicks from the other top guys. 1:56.9 flat track is moving. Rivera and Dickson have the hot hand lately. They have been tearing it up and that is dangerous because Rivera is a 1:53 guy outdoors last season who came on at the right time just like he is this indoor season. Meanwhile Dickson has dropped a lot of time in the past few weeks going from around 2:04 to 2 flat to 1:59 (the next day after the 2 flat I believe) down to 1:58. CB South does pretty well with 800 guys and I think this is just another in the line of successes. So that leaves Hardy, Trimble and Harriman in the fast heat. Trimble was a guy I was super high on early in the year, but he hasn't had anything to impressive me in a while now and has had very few open results in general. He runs for North Penn and he's an 800 guy (was on my sleepers last year and performed well) so anything can happen, but I'm off the bandwagon this year. Hardy is kind of overrated in my mind. As overrated as a 1:55 and 1:19 can be I guess, considering he has posted some awesome times. But I just haven't seen a great race against the competition here in state, just the competition at the armory. This is a banked track so maybe he will benefit, but I feel its more likely these other kids finally catch up to him. And lastly Harriman is on the double so I don't see him doing much.
When all is said and done here's how I see the 800 finishers with projected times:
1. Holder 1:54.2
2. Stone 1:54.4
3. Horgan 1:54.7
4. Baily 1:55.3
5. Hardy 1:55.4
6. Rivera 1:55.8
7. Dickson 1:56.5
8. Squirees 1:56.7
A Little More In Depth
So let's talk more in depth now as I narrow down the events to my specialty and what I have been following all season. We will start of course with the mile. First off, right off the bat my predictions could be off based on the number of people they put in each heat. This may end up being a 3 heat race with 29 entries like that. In 2009 they had 28 entries in the mile and ended up running two heats (something like 12 and 16) but that being said a few guys scratched and they only ended up with 26 (25 finished, Hobart fell). So I can't guarantee 2 sections, but for the sake of my predictions I will anticipate 2 sections of the boys mile with 16 in the first and 13 in the section. Perhaps a little bold but we shall see. This means I draw my line at Connor Harriman (great news for him because he is right around my cut off for medals as well).
This race was a tough one for me to pick out of the medalists. I don't see anyone from the slow heat reaching up to grab a medal, but there are potential sleepers in this heat. Both CR North kids Felt and Zingarini are sleepers here even if they haven't posted unbelievable times both have been solid contributors to a well balanced DMR. Zingarini came on very strong down the stretch in XC through to states so he may be in for another surprise high finish this race. He, along with Chaborek, Yannocane (getting a lot of talk recently), Burke and Todaro should be the guys to mix it up at the front of this group. I have Todaro pulling out the win in the heat, closely followed by Chaborek, Zingarini, Burke and then Felt. Probably in the mid 4:20s like this heat is won in most years. Somebody will drop a fairly sizeable season best out of this group.
In the fast heat, things get very interesting. You have the heavy favorite Willig out front and you have the young up and comers behind him. Obviously, this is Willig's race to lose and I don't anticipate the upset going down here. I think Willig runs out front from the gun and keeps the record at least in the back of his head. That being said, I don't know if he will have to do all the work to stay at record pace. A kid by the name of Tom Coyle has taken a lot of big steps towards state championship contention in the last few weeks, and he is not afraid of a fast pace early, he's a front runner even in XC despite his great closing speed. And of course there is Alex Moran and Dan Jaskowak from the TSTCA who are both accustomed to going for it from the gun. If Willig is out hard, I can't imagine this group just letting him go. They all want to win. And speaking of winners, one of the big winners early in the season was Jack Huemmler who won a lot of big races including Kevin Dare in the mile and has experience anchoring his 4x8 at the Millrose games in a pressure situation. Plus Brett Kelly has a knack for going out hard in races.
So all these names will be the guys to watch out front, but its hard to imagine a fast early pace not taking it out of some of these guys. I hate to say it but only one of these guys is in 4:15 shape based on their previous races and that's Ned. Coyle is probably the only other guy close. But I think the fast pace out front may catch up to Coyle and his state champion aspirations, leaving the door open for Moran to sneak by him for second. I see Jaskowak having the strength to mix it up and hold on for fourth (he has the most XC strength of the bunch and has a few nice mile wins on his resume, he deserves a bit more talk than he's been getting perhaps). After this things get very tricky.
I have MaCauley at 5th, he's my big sleeper pick here. I heard he split in the low 4:20s on the DQd North Penn DMR at Lehigh. North Penn rounds their guys into shape at the right time and MaCauley has been clutch before at the state meet. These guys will have some speed in their legs and MaCauley may be able to hang on and pick off some guys at the end with his XC strength.
Huemmler at 6 could easily be Huemmler at 2 the way he raced early in the season, but as of late the buzz around Strath Haven has kind of gone down, from early season DMR state champs to now a team champion race and a DMR that was underwhelming at MoC. He may surprise me with a big bounce back race, but right now I'm going with the guys with the hot hand.
Brett Kelly at 7. Eh. I'm really not too passionate about this pick, but the last two years at states he has come up with some big DMR carries to pull his team to surprising finishes. That gives me confidence in him for this race. But his recent performances haven't indicated to me that there isn't a strong chance he will go out hard and fall apart in a talented deep field. We will have to see.
Steiner gets the nod for the 8th here. He's a tough runner and will have the strength to hang on from a quick pace and maybe come back and pick some guys off on his way to the finish. It's hard to say for sure. He seems to be in better mile shape than most would have expected and Ryan Gil ran a pretty quick mile at this state meet before so this wouldn't be unprecedented out of the NA camp.
The guys falling in behind are even trickier still to predict. Harriman obviously has great potential here to run fast. He was the 10th place finisher at states this past fall and I think he may be in low 4:20s shape. Tony Russell is no slouch either, especially considering his mile time was on the double, but I'm still scared to pick a young sophomore who was underwhelming in his first state appearance in XC this past fall. I see a possible Wade Endress sophomore year esque performance. Which still means good things down the line. Tonzo and O'Such are both guys who could definitely surprise. I really like both as sleeper picks and would not be surprised if they sneak into the medal race.
O'Such was a big name at the season's half way point. I'd like to see him get back in that mix as a well known entity.
So overall my medalists with approximate times are:
1. Willig 4:14
2. Moran 4:18
3. Coyle 4:18
4. Jaskowak 4:20
5. MaCauley 4:21
6. Huemmler 4:21
7. Kelly 4:22
8. Steiner 4:22
This race was a tough one for me to pick out of the medalists. I don't see anyone from the slow heat reaching up to grab a medal, but there are potential sleepers in this heat. Both CR North kids Felt and Zingarini are sleepers here even if they haven't posted unbelievable times both have been solid contributors to a well balanced DMR. Zingarini came on very strong down the stretch in XC through to states so he may be in for another surprise high finish this race. He, along with Chaborek, Yannocane (getting a lot of talk recently), Burke and Todaro should be the guys to mix it up at the front of this group. I have Todaro pulling out the win in the heat, closely followed by Chaborek, Zingarini, Burke and then Felt. Probably in the mid 4:20s like this heat is won in most years. Somebody will drop a fairly sizeable season best out of this group.
In the fast heat, things get very interesting. You have the heavy favorite Willig out front and you have the young up and comers behind him. Obviously, this is Willig's race to lose and I don't anticipate the upset going down here. I think Willig runs out front from the gun and keeps the record at least in the back of his head. That being said, I don't know if he will have to do all the work to stay at record pace. A kid by the name of Tom Coyle has taken a lot of big steps towards state championship contention in the last few weeks, and he is not afraid of a fast pace early, he's a front runner even in XC despite his great closing speed. And of course there is Alex Moran and Dan Jaskowak from the TSTCA who are both accustomed to going for it from the gun. If Willig is out hard, I can't imagine this group just letting him go. They all want to win. And speaking of winners, one of the big winners early in the season was Jack Huemmler who won a lot of big races including Kevin Dare in the mile and has experience anchoring his 4x8 at the Millrose games in a pressure situation. Plus Brett Kelly has a knack for going out hard in races.
So all these names will be the guys to watch out front, but its hard to imagine a fast early pace not taking it out of some of these guys. I hate to say it but only one of these guys is in 4:15 shape based on their previous races and that's Ned. Coyle is probably the only other guy close. But I think the fast pace out front may catch up to Coyle and his state champion aspirations, leaving the door open for Moran to sneak by him for second. I see Jaskowak having the strength to mix it up and hold on for fourth (he has the most XC strength of the bunch and has a few nice mile wins on his resume, he deserves a bit more talk than he's been getting perhaps). After this things get very tricky.
I have MaCauley at 5th, he's my big sleeper pick here. I heard he split in the low 4:20s on the DQd North Penn DMR at Lehigh. North Penn rounds their guys into shape at the right time and MaCauley has been clutch before at the state meet. These guys will have some speed in their legs and MaCauley may be able to hang on and pick off some guys at the end with his XC strength.
Huemmler at 6 could easily be Huemmler at 2 the way he raced early in the season, but as of late the buzz around Strath Haven has kind of gone down, from early season DMR state champs to now a team champion race and a DMR that was underwhelming at MoC. He may surprise me with a big bounce back race, but right now I'm going with the guys with the hot hand.
Brett Kelly at 7. Eh. I'm really not too passionate about this pick, but the last two years at states he has come up with some big DMR carries to pull his team to surprising finishes. That gives me confidence in him for this race. But his recent performances haven't indicated to me that there isn't a strong chance he will go out hard and fall apart in a talented deep field. We will have to see.
Steiner gets the nod for the 8th here. He's a tough runner and will have the strength to hang on from a quick pace and maybe come back and pick some guys off on his way to the finish. It's hard to say for sure. He seems to be in better mile shape than most would have expected and Ryan Gil ran a pretty quick mile at this state meet before so this wouldn't be unprecedented out of the NA camp.
The guys falling in behind are even trickier still to predict. Harriman obviously has great potential here to run fast. He was the 10th place finisher at states this past fall and I think he may be in low 4:20s shape. Tony Russell is no slouch either, especially considering his mile time was on the double, but I'm still scared to pick a young sophomore who was underwhelming in his first state appearance in XC this past fall. I see a possible Wade Endress sophomore year esque performance. Which still means good things down the line. Tonzo and O'Such are both guys who could definitely surprise. I really like both as sleeper picks and would not be surprised if they sneak into the medal race.
O'Such was a big name at the season's half way point. I'd like to see him get back in that mix as a well known entity.
So overall my medalists with approximate times are:
1. Willig 4:14
2. Moran 4:18
3. Coyle 4:18
4. Jaskowak 4:20
5. MaCauley 4:21
6. Huemmler 4:21
7. Kelly 4:22
8. Steiner 4:22
Two For One
Oh Shoot! Two posts in one day! Yeah that's right folks, I've got the guys predictions coming at you now (see below for important information about other stuff happening on the blog this week to stay in the know). I'll have some analysis of the distance events as the week goes on and more in depth previews, but for now let me just throw down some predictions for you.
Boys 60m Hurdles
1. Williams
2. Futch
3. Zaza
4. Willet
5. Hairston
6. Elam
7. Townsend
8. Whalman
Boys 60m Dash
1. Elliot
2. Mathis
3. Patton
4. Shippen
5. Shivetts
6. Wheeler
7. Smalley
8. Jones
Boys 200m Dash
1. Futch
2. Elliot
3. Hamilton
4. Mathis
5. Patton
6. Bangura
7. Smutsky
8. Worley
Boys 400m Dash
1. Stiles
2. Ross
3. Riece
4. Daniel
5. Philogene
6. Shisler
7. Dixon
8. Hackett
Boys 800m
1. Holder
2. Stone
3. Horgan
4. Baily
5. Hardy
6. Rivera
7. Dickson
8. Squirees
Boys Mile
1. Willig
2. Moran
3. Coyle
4. Jaskowak
5. MacCauley
6. Huemmler
7. Kelly
8. Steiner
Boys 3000m
1. Wilson
2. Hibbs
3. Shearn
4. Aziz
5. Savage
6. Kuchta
7. Bilotta
8. Ferruzzi (homer pick, yep)
Boys 4x200
1. Pennwood
2. Strath Haven
3. Neshaminy
4. O'Hara
5. Seneca Valley
6. Swenson
7. Wissahickon
8. Glenn Mills
Boys 4x400m
1. Pennwood
2. Pennridge
3. Wissahickon
4. Penncrest
5. Coatesville
6. Swenson
7. Milton Hershey
8. Cardinal O'Hara
Boys 4x800m
1. Penncrest
2. Strath Haven
3. Pennridge
4. LaSalle
5. North Penn
6. DT West
7. CB West
8. Penn Hills
Boys HJ
1. Mudrey
2. Johnson
3. Short
4. Ramsey
5. Coppock
6. Clemons
7. Gregro
8. DeCecco
Boys PV
1. Anderson
2. Williams
3. Mayer
4. Allison
5. Steinbugl
6. Hensh
7. Laverdiere
8. Smith
Boys LJ
1. Peabody
2. Minnig
3. Brown
4. Edwards
5. Tate
6. Landis
7. Zaza
8. Rizzo
Boys TJ
1. Brown
2. Landis
3. Posey
4. Lacroix
5. Zaza
6. Najac
7. Edwards
8. Spadaro
Boys Shot Put
1. Long
2. Felpel
3. Singh
4. Bell
5. Wilks
6. Adams
7. Reinhardt
8. Kirby
Boys Distance Medley
1. Great Valley
2. Henderson
3. Altoona
4. HGPrep
5. GFS
6. North Allegheny
7. Trinity
8. CR North
Boys 60m Hurdles
1. Williams
2. Futch
3. Zaza
4. Willet
5. Hairston
6. Elam
7. Townsend
8. Whalman
Boys 60m Dash
1. Elliot
2. Mathis
3. Patton
4. Shippen
5. Shivetts
6. Wheeler
7. Smalley
8. Jones
Boys 200m Dash
1. Futch
2. Elliot
3. Hamilton
4. Mathis
5. Patton
6. Bangura
7. Smutsky
8. Worley
Boys 400m Dash
1. Stiles
2. Ross
3. Riece
4. Daniel
5. Philogene
6. Shisler
7. Dixon
8. Hackett
Boys 800m
1. Holder
2. Stone
3. Horgan
4. Baily
5. Hardy
6. Rivera
7. Dickson
8. Squirees
Boys Mile
1. Willig
2. Moran
3. Coyle
4. Jaskowak
5. MacCauley
6. Huemmler
7. Kelly
8. Steiner
Boys 3000m
1. Wilson
2. Hibbs
3. Shearn
4. Aziz
5. Savage
6. Kuchta
7. Bilotta
8. Ferruzzi (homer pick, yep)
Boys 4x200
1. Pennwood
2. Strath Haven
3. Neshaminy
4. O'Hara
5. Seneca Valley
6. Swenson
7. Wissahickon
8. Glenn Mills
Boys 4x400m
1. Pennwood
2. Pennridge
3. Wissahickon
4. Penncrest
5. Coatesville
6. Swenson
7. Milton Hershey
8. Cardinal O'Hara
Boys 4x800m
1. Penncrest
2. Strath Haven
3. Pennridge
4. LaSalle
5. North Penn
6. DT West
7. CB West
8. Penn Hills
Boys HJ
1. Mudrey
2. Johnson
3. Short
4. Ramsey
5. Coppock
6. Clemons
7. Gregro
8. DeCecco
Boys PV
1. Anderson
2. Williams
3. Mayer
4. Allison
5. Steinbugl
6. Hensh
7. Laverdiere
8. Smith
Boys LJ
1. Peabody
2. Minnig
3. Brown
4. Edwards
5. Tate
6. Landis
7. Zaza
8. Rizzo
Boys TJ
1. Brown
2. Landis
3. Posey
4. Lacroix
5. Zaza
6. Najac
7. Edwards
8. Spadaro
Boys Shot Put
1. Long
2. Felpel
3. Singh
4. Bell
5. Wilks
6. Adams
7. Reinhardt
8. Kirby
Boys Distance Medley
1. Great Valley
2. Henderson
3. Altoona
4. HGPrep
5. GFS
6. North Allegheny
7. Trinity
8. CR North
States Predictions
So over the next couple days my posts will be about predictions for the state championships. First off I just want to throw this out there. I am a distance guy at heart (at which point everyone reading this screams out duh) and so I will try to preview all the events on the blog but honestly I know that my girls predictions and my boys predictions for everything below 800 meters will probably kinda suck. But I'll hit you guys with my best shot.
I also wanted to just throw this out there. If you think you can name more state medalists than etrain, get in on the prediction contest. I will predict every events state medalist on both the boys and girls side. Your job is to pick however many events you would like to predict, pick 8 names from each event that you think will medal, and then post up your predictions up here on the blog. Just like in XC order doesn't matter (but it makes it more fun if you predict in order) so throw down the names and see if you can get more medalists than me. Should be a fun time. Also the fantasy draft deadline is midnight to tonight, so let me know before then if you are interested.
Thanks.
So today I will start off my predictions with those which I don't really know much about. Which means I will be do all my girls predictions right here, right now. I won't give too many reasons for why I have certain girls where I do so feel free to ask me about it in a comment, but no guarentees I'll have a good answer. I'll leave brief comments next to picks that might seem a little out there.
Word.
Here we go. This is going to be ugly.
Girls 60m Hurdles
1. Coley
2. Hicks
3. Williams
4. Kerns
5. Yankelev
6. Lowe
7. Thomas
8. Goodyear
Girls 60m Dash
1. Evans
2. Steward
3. Nesmith
4. Jackson
5. Belt
6. Mitchell
7. Richardson
8. Dangerfield (Not gonna lie, purely for the name)
Girls 200m Dash
1. Evans
2. Davis
3. Steward
4. Harris
5. Jackson
6. Matthews
7. Daniels
8. Nesmith
Girls 400m Dash
1. Brown
2. Thomas
3. Sharkey
4. Williams
5. Harris
6. Valentine (Home field advantage)
7. Witmer
8. Green
Girls 800m
1. Keenan
2. Deacon
3. Weisner
4. Hampson
5. Nappi
6. Tan-Torres
7. Cousins
8. Carr (Muhlenberg recruit, you can't help it)
Girls Mile
1. Piccirillo
2. Malone (Margo)
3. Seykora
4. Grossman
5. Weisner
6. Holl (Upper Dublin bias coming through, but she was 3rd at states last year)
7. Sheva
8. Malone (Mary)
Girls 3000m
1. Picirillo (really hoping all this doubling pays off)
2. Sargent
3. Gerlach
4. McGovern
5. Darlington
6. Speakman
7. Rome
8. Herman
Girls 4x200m
1. Swenson
2. Pennridge
3. CD East
4. CB East
5. Coatesville
6. Cheltenham
7. Easton
8. Villa Joesph Marie
Girls 4x400m
1. Swenson
2. Paul Robeson
3. Pennwood
4. Cheltenham
5. Strath Haven
6. CB West
7. DT East
8. Abington (a meet where Abington doesn't medal in the 4x4? that would be new)
Girls 4x800m
1. Strath Haven
2. West Chester Henderson
3. St Basil (they have a 6:47 seed time so they must be pretty good)
4. DT East
5. Methacton
6. Pennsbury (probably wishful thinking here considering the close proximity of the 3k)
7. CR North
8. Garnety Valley
Girls DMR
1. Notre Dame
2. Haverford
3. Pennridge
4. North Penn
5. North Hills
6. CB West
7. O'Hara
8. GFS
Girls HJ
1. McColskey
2. Richardson
3. Morgan
4. Thomas
5. Rittleman
6. Shiffler
7. Gross
8. McCoy
Girls Pole Vault
1. Debich
2. LaMacchia
3. Benninghoff
4. Giampetro
5. Loy
6. Petty
7. Love
8. Kalsey
Girls Long Jump
1. Hodge
2. Matthews
3. Catiana
4. Hope
5. Nesmith
6. Brenker
7. Worrell
8. Sullivan
Girls Triple Jump
1. Bowman
2. Hodge
3. Newsome
4. Newkirk
5. Catiana
6. Johnson
7. Burns
8. Jacques
Girls Shot Put
1. Neider
2. Woods
3. Fatherly
4. Stevenson
5. Lubarski
6. McCartney
7. Milcec
8. Bonetti
Please don't laugh at me when these turn out badly, mostly just pick favorites gonna be honest here. I just wanted to put these down so that people could predict whatever events they liked and try and beat me (which hopefully you all will). But yea, enjoy the performance list and get pumped for states.
I also wanted to just throw this out there. If you think you can name more state medalists than etrain, get in on the prediction contest. I will predict every events state medalist on both the boys and girls side. Your job is to pick however many events you would like to predict, pick 8 names from each event that you think will medal, and then post up your predictions up here on the blog. Just like in XC order doesn't matter (but it makes it more fun if you predict in order) so throw down the names and see if you can get more medalists than me. Should be a fun time. Also the fantasy draft deadline is midnight to tonight, so let me know before then if you are interested.
Thanks.
So today I will start off my predictions with those which I don't really know much about. Which means I will be do all my girls predictions right here, right now. I won't give too many reasons for why I have certain girls where I do so feel free to ask me about it in a comment, but no guarentees I'll have a good answer. I'll leave brief comments next to picks that might seem a little out there.
Word.
Here we go. This is going to be ugly.
Girls 60m Hurdles
1. Coley
2. Hicks
3. Williams
4. Kerns
5. Yankelev
6. Lowe
7. Thomas
8. Goodyear
Girls 60m Dash
1. Evans
2. Steward
3. Nesmith
4. Jackson
5. Belt
6. Mitchell
7. Richardson
8. Dangerfield (Not gonna lie, purely for the name)
Girls 200m Dash
1. Evans
2. Davis
3. Steward
4. Harris
5. Jackson
6. Matthews
7. Daniels
8. Nesmith
Girls 400m Dash
1. Brown
2. Thomas
3. Sharkey
4. Williams
5. Harris
6. Valentine (Home field advantage)
7. Witmer
8. Green
Girls 800m
1. Keenan
2. Deacon
3. Weisner
4. Hampson
5. Nappi
6. Tan-Torres
7. Cousins
8. Carr (Muhlenberg recruit, you can't help it)
Girls Mile
1. Piccirillo
2. Malone (Margo)
3. Seykora
4. Grossman
5. Weisner
6. Holl (Upper Dublin bias coming through, but she was 3rd at states last year)
7. Sheva
8. Malone (Mary)
Girls 3000m
1. Picirillo (really hoping all this doubling pays off)
2. Sargent
3. Gerlach
4. McGovern
5. Darlington
6. Speakman
7. Rome
8. Herman
Girls 4x200m
1. Swenson
2. Pennridge
3. CD East
4. CB East
5. Coatesville
6. Cheltenham
7. Easton
8. Villa Joesph Marie
Girls 4x400m
1. Swenson
2. Paul Robeson
3. Pennwood
4. Cheltenham
5. Strath Haven
6. CB West
7. DT East
8. Abington (a meet where Abington doesn't medal in the 4x4? that would be new)
Girls 4x800m
1. Strath Haven
2. West Chester Henderson
3. St Basil (they have a 6:47 seed time so they must be pretty good)
4. DT East
5. Methacton
6. Pennsbury (probably wishful thinking here considering the close proximity of the 3k)
7. CR North
8. Garnety Valley
Girls DMR
1. Notre Dame
2. Haverford
3. Pennridge
4. North Penn
5. North Hills
6. CB West
7. O'Hara
8. GFS
Girls HJ
1. McColskey
2. Richardson
3. Morgan
4. Thomas
5. Rittleman
6. Shiffler
7. Gross
8. McCoy
Girls Pole Vault
1. Debich
2. LaMacchia
3. Benninghoff
4. Giampetro
5. Loy
6. Petty
7. Love
8. Kalsey
Girls Long Jump
1. Hodge
2. Matthews
3. Catiana
4. Hope
5. Nesmith
6. Brenker
7. Worrell
8. Sullivan
Girls Triple Jump
1. Bowman
2. Hodge
3. Newsome
4. Newkirk
5. Catiana
6. Johnson
7. Burns
8. Jacques
Girls Shot Put
1. Neider
2. Woods
3. Fatherly
4. Stevenson
5. Lubarski
6. McCartney
7. Milcec
8. Bonetti
Please don't laugh at me when these turn out badly, mostly just pick favorites gonna be honest here. I just wanted to put these down so that people could predict whatever events they liked and try and beat me (which hopefully you all will). But yea, enjoy the performance list and get pumped for states.
Weekend Action: Last Time It's Not States!
So this is a very exciting time for me as track addict because both the PTFCA state meet and the Centennial conference meet are both on the verge of posting performance lists for their respective meets. That's usually the most exciting time for me, seeing what everyone chose to run in, and predicting where they will all finish. The sleepers, the favorites, the upsets, you get to call them ahead of time and either look a genius or fail horribly (most of the time it's the second one but who cares).
But those lists aren't up quite yet, so it's time to talk about the results that will inch us closer to that result.
We start off at the Meet of Champions race at Lehigh where the day started with a statement race by Ned Willig in the 1200, running 3:01. Blazing fast for the lehigh track and shows Millrose was a fluke. Great Valley ran 10:26 in a non optimum order. It will be interesting to see if they try and keep this order come states. Against a LaSalle team with Coyle on the anchor, I'm not sure if you want Willig/Wolffe having to be chased down by that guy. Strath Haven (with I'm assuming their A team if not close to it) kind of got handled at this race (North Penn beat them to before the DQ). After this I can't imagine Haven running the DMR at the state championship. They were double their big guns and come back in the 4x8. No other schools hit the time, and based on some of the other stuff that went down this weekend I think only the runners who hit the time will get in.
The mile was kind of a let down, nice race for Kardish but I think a lot of people were hoping to see a lot more guys under the SQS. Hibbs gets another solid win in the mile, but obviously I think the 3k is in his immeadiate future. Probably then doubling back to anchor his DMR.
The 800 was pretty sick. Horgan dropped a very fast time with Rivera and Dickson also having huge season bests. Those guys were both high on my pre season list, then dropped off my lists, and now are back on high. They are peaking at the right time. THe race was incredibly deep, 6 guys under 2, 10 guys under the SQS. Paul Robeson has 2 very nice 800 pieces so maybe a sleeper pick later on in the 4x8.
Worth noting, nice upset win by Stiles over Hardy, nice runs by Futch in the hurdles and the 200, and of course a great relay in the 4x4.
In the 3k it was a big day for Billotta and Brett Kelly, both of whom may go on to run this race at the state championships. Tough misses for a few other guys, Israel was kind of disappointing, but he should still be a good leg for the DMR later. Will be interesting to see how HGPrep decides to double their legs. Also interested to see what Kelly decides to do as he has run the 3k the last two weekends so obviously he feels there is some potential there. However, it is tough to run the 3 three weekends in a row and have success. Oh yeah Dustin Wilson won. Nothing too surprising there, nothing super fast. We will see what happens at states.
DeBarbarie, my heart goes out to you man, two very, very close misses in the 3k. He's in for the mile which is nice, and I do think if he enters the 3k he will be the last guy in.
Lastly (sorry Wissahickon's 4x4, you guys ran great but I don't have time for a paragraph about it) have to talk about the 4x8. LaSalle ran very fast, there should be a bit more of a story there perhaps, but in my eyes I was distracted by the huge race by Pennridge. This team (assuming they keep 4 fresh legs) has to be in state title discusion. Within two seconds of a team that set a meet of champs record in the 4x8 with 4 fresh legs on both ends. I think Logue and Kohler (who I hope will both bail on the 8 to run the relay) are underrated 4x8 guys and Pennridge has a chance to surprise, especially if doubling plays a factor on other teams and the DMR continues to be the hot event. LaSalle of course ran very fast and it is a meet record, but it's nothing outrageous given their legs on paper. Obviously, if they choose to run a fresh relay they are the favorites for gold. If they double in the individuals we will have a very interesting weekend.
Lastly, I'll discuss the action over at the TSTCA championships.
First off great sign in the mile for a couple big time guys in Moran and Smathers as they take down Jaskowak who had been simply on fire this year with a big mile win. I'm really surprised Jaskowak never seriously considered the 3k, I think it would have been a better event for him. He's definitely a name to watch at states in the mile, but the fact of the matter is I don't know if he has the speed to hang with some of these guys in a kickers race. I said it this time last year and it didn't quite work out, but Moran is rounding into shape and has to be the big sleeper in this years race. He has an outside shot at the win if Ned doesn't have his day. Tonzo nice race as well, a fresh NA DMR would just add to the fun, because they can go fast.
How about the Penn Hills boys? Baily upset by his teammate Squirees as now both have run very solid times. Kind of reminds me of Anderson and Rumble (who went on to take 2-4 at states that year I believe). It's a shame we won't see their 4x8 in action fresh because they would have a shot at the win in my eyes. Both these guys are serious podium contenders in the open 8 however.
Ethan Martin runs a nice 3k, Wakeley a miss again. It's a shame for him because I thought he would do it. Martin has an outisde chance at getting in to the state meet if enough guys don't enter. Coyle and Willig are the only guys I can say with confidence will not enter, so it is pretty up in the air right now.
And how about those DMRs? Nice runs by Altoona and Trinity to punch their ticket to states in the DMR. Kiski is the next team in if the PTFCA decides to add a squad. Altoona now has to be talked about in the DMR title contender conversation at the very least. Trinity will be looking to mix it up for a medal.
Just one comment about the DMR. Potentially a really amazing race. This isn't what I think will happen, but it's possible:
Great Valley with Willig on the anchor after just the mile
Fresh Altoona
Fresh LaSalle
Fresh North Allegheny
Fresh North Penn
Fresh Henderson
Holy Ghost with only Horgan doubling
Fresh GFS
Fresh CR North
It would be quite the race. Kiski, Hatboro, Trinity, and DT West would all be compelling story lines as well. Of course if Strath Haven was in this group it would be pretty awesome, but like I said above I can see no situation where they run the DMR at this point in the contest.
Perfomance lists out soon. Yay.
But those lists aren't up quite yet, so it's time to talk about the results that will inch us closer to that result.
We start off at the Meet of Champions race at Lehigh where the day started with a statement race by Ned Willig in the 1200, running 3:01. Blazing fast for the lehigh track and shows Millrose was a fluke. Great Valley ran 10:26 in a non optimum order. It will be interesting to see if they try and keep this order come states. Against a LaSalle team with Coyle on the anchor, I'm not sure if you want Willig/Wolffe having to be chased down by that guy. Strath Haven (with I'm assuming their A team if not close to it) kind of got handled at this race (North Penn beat them to before the DQ). After this I can't imagine Haven running the DMR at the state championship. They were double their big guns and come back in the 4x8. No other schools hit the time, and based on some of the other stuff that went down this weekend I think only the runners who hit the time will get in.
The mile was kind of a let down, nice race for Kardish but I think a lot of people were hoping to see a lot more guys under the SQS. Hibbs gets another solid win in the mile, but obviously I think the 3k is in his immeadiate future. Probably then doubling back to anchor his DMR.
The 800 was pretty sick. Horgan dropped a very fast time with Rivera and Dickson also having huge season bests. Those guys were both high on my pre season list, then dropped off my lists, and now are back on high. They are peaking at the right time. THe race was incredibly deep, 6 guys under 2, 10 guys under the SQS. Paul Robeson has 2 very nice 800 pieces so maybe a sleeper pick later on in the 4x8.
Worth noting, nice upset win by Stiles over Hardy, nice runs by Futch in the hurdles and the 200, and of course a great relay in the 4x4.
In the 3k it was a big day for Billotta and Brett Kelly, both of whom may go on to run this race at the state championships. Tough misses for a few other guys, Israel was kind of disappointing, but he should still be a good leg for the DMR later. Will be interesting to see how HGPrep decides to double their legs. Also interested to see what Kelly decides to do as he has run the 3k the last two weekends so obviously he feels there is some potential there. However, it is tough to run the 3 three weekends in a row and have success. Oh yeah Dustin Wilson won. Nothing too surprising there, nothing super fast. We will see what happens at states.
DeBarbarie, my heart goes out to you man, two very, very close misses in the 3k. He's in for the mile which is nice, and I do think if he enters the 3k he will be the last guy in.
Lastly (sorry Wissahickon's 4x4, you guys ran great but I don't have time for a paragraph about it) have to talk about the 4x8. LaSalle ran very fast, there should be a bit more of a story there perhaps, but in my eyes I was distracted by the huge race by Pennridge. This team (assuming they keep 4 fresh legs) has to be in state title discusion. Within two seconds of a team that set a meet of champs record in the 4x8 with 4 fresh legs on both ends. I think Logue and Kohler (who I hope will both bail on the 8 to run the relay) are underrated 4x8 guys and Pennridge has a chance to surprise, especially if doubling plays a factor on other teams and the DMR continues to be the hot event. LaSalle of course ran very fast and it is a meet record, but it's nothing outrageous given their legs on paper. Obviously, if they choose to run a fresh relay they are the favorites for gold. If they double in the individuals we will have a very interesting weekend.
Lastly, I'll discuss the action over at the TSTCA championships.
First off great sign in the mile for a couple big time guys in Moran and Smathers as they take down Jaskowak who had been simply on fire this year with a big mile win. I'm really surprised Jaskowak never seriously considered the 3k, I think it would have been a better event for him. He's definitely a name to watch at states in the mile, but the fact of the matter is I don't know if he has the speed to hang with some of these guys in a kickers race. I said it this time last year and it didn't quite work out, but Moran is rounding into shape and has to be the big sleeper in this years race. He has an outside shot at the win if Ned doesn't have his day. Tonzo nice race as well, a fresh NA DMR would just add to the fun, because they can go fast.
How about the Penn Hills boys? Baily upset by his teammate Squirees as now both have run very solid times. Kind of reminds me of Anderson and Rumble (who went on to take 2-4 at states that year I believe). It's a shame we won't see their 4x8 in action fresh because they would have a shot at the win in my eyes. Both these guys are serious podium contenders in the open 8 however.
Ethan Martin runs a nice 3k, Wakeley a miss again. It's a shame for him because I thought he would do it. Martin has an outisde chance at getting in to the state meet if enough guys don't enter. Coyle and Willig are the only guys I can say with confidence will not enter, so it is pretty up in the air right now.
And how about those DMRs? Nice runs by Altoona and Trinity to punch their ticket to states in the DMR. Kiski is the next team in if the PTFCA decides to add a squad. Altoona now has to be talked about in the DMR title contender conversation at the very least. Trinity will be looking to mix it up for a medal.
Just one comment about the DMR. Potentially a really amazing race. This isn't what I think will happen, but it's possible:
Great Valley with Willig on the anchor after just the mile
Fresh Altoona
Fresh LaSalle
Fresh North Allegheny
Fresh North Penn
Fresh Henderson
Holy Ghost with only Horgan doubling
Fresh GFS
Fresh CR North
It would be quite the race. Kiski, Hatboro, Trinity, and DT West would all be compelling story lines as well. Of course if Strath Haven was in this group it would be pretty awesome, but like I said above I can see no situation where they run the DMR at this point in the contest.
Perfomance lists out soon. Yay.
Fantasy Stuff
So I am not going to go in depth about this weekend's performances just yet, I first want to see the full line up of weekend action before I talk about some things, but there are plenty of things I want to talk about, including Great Valley's DMR, LaSalle, Pennridge and much, much more. But I want to see TSTCA results and such and figure out a few more things about who is running what this pivotal week before states.
Then of course once the performance list comes out, its prediction time here on the blog, and once again you guys can join in on the action to try and beat yours truly in a prediction contest. But we will get to that.
What I wanted to talk about right now for anyone interested his how the Fantasy Indoor Track competition is going to work. Anyone who still wants in let me know ASAP. Right now there are 4 of us in the pool.
Teams will be around 10 guys per team. You can draft anyone competing at the state championships.
Here is how scoring works. If your individual that you picked scores at the state championship, the amount of points he scores/she scores goes to your total.
Now there are a couple things we can debate for those in the league. We can either use just distance, just guys, just sprints etc. We can count relays as you draft a school and get all their relay teams, you draft an individual and his points on a relay count at 1/4 value, or you draft each individual relay the same as you would draft each individual person. Get back to me on what you think and if you want to join in, feel free but tell me soon.
Stay classy, San Diego
Then of course once the performance list comes out, its prediction time here on the blog, and once again you guys can join in on the action to try and beat yours truly in a prediction contest. But we will get to that.
What I wanted to talk about right now for anyone interested his how the Fantasy Indoor Track competition is going to work. Anyone who still wants in let me know ASAP. Right now there are 4 of us in the pool.
Teams will be around 10 guys per team. You can draft anyone competing at the state championships.
Here is how scoring works. If your individual that you picked scores at the state championship, the amount of points he scores/she scores goes to your total.
Now there are a couple things we can debate for those in the league. We can either use just distance, just guys, just sprints etc. We can count relays as you draft a school and get all their relay teams, you draft an individual and his points on a relay count at 1/4 value, or you draft each individual relay the same as you would draft each individual person. Get back to me on what you think and if you want to join in, feel free but tell me soon.
Stay classy, San Diego
Fast Post
So not going to lie to you folks I have class in like 10 minutes and after that I have kind of a busy day that includes lunch, getting my hair cut and preparing for a meet tonight that I probably won't get back from until close to midnight which means my post streak is definitely on line and honestly right now this sentence is a total run on, but I'm kind of just typing whatever comes to mind at this very moment to try and fill up space so this post will look more like a real post and less like a dinky post that I only made to keep my post streak going because I didn't have time to make a real post that actually had positive information and well thought out sentence structure.
But I will actually say something with some value right now. Here are my brief predictions for meet of champs tomorrow. I'll give a top 3. I'm assuming that everyone entered is running for the sake of not over complicating things although this is extremely unlikely.
400m
1. Futch
2. Hamilton
3. Hardy
4. Stiles
5. Reice
800m
1. Horgan
2. Huemmler
3. Trimble
4. Harriman
5. Rivera
Mile
1. MaCauley
2. Hibbs
3. Trimble
4. Scarpato
5. Ferruzzi
3k
1. Wilson
2. Kelly
3. Billotta
4. Israel
5. Pastore
4x8
1. LaSalle
2. Penncrest
3. DT West
4. CB East
5. Lower Moreland
DMR
1. Great Valley
2. GFS
3. CB West
4. CB East
5. CHA
It's tough to know who exactly is doubling where and what they are doing so these predictions will almost definitely be off, but since this is the abridged version, this is the best I can do. Good luck to everyone running.
There's lots of sleepers in all these races which makes things very exciting. A lot of SQS standards should be hit this weekend so be prepared to update your fantasy draft board.
Which reminds me!
If anyone is interested in doing a fantasy draft for the state championships you can sign up now by facebook messaging me about it or commenting on this post. In order to do the draft, however, you will need a facebook account because we will use that site in order to draft teams. Thank you that is all.
I'm gonna run to class now. Literally. Peace.
But I will actually say something with some value right now. Here are my brief predictions for meet of champs tomorrow. I'll give a top 3. I'm assuming that everyone entered is running for the sake of not over complicating things although this is extremely unlikely.
400m
1. Futch
2. Hamilton
3. Hardy
4. Stiles
5. Reice
800m
1. Horgan
2. Huemmler
3. Trimble
4. Harriman
5. Rivera
Mile
1. MaCauley
2. Hibbs
3. Trimble
4. Scarpato
5. Ferruzzi
3k
1. Wilson
2. Kelly
3. Billotta
4. Israel
5. Pastore
4x8
1. LaSalle
2. Penncrest
3. DT West
4. CB East
5. Lower Moreland
DMR
1. Great Valley
2. GFS
3. CB West
4. CB East
5. CHA
It's tough to know who exactly is doubling where and what they are doing so these predictions will almost definitely be off, but since this is the abridged version, this is the best I can do. Good luck to everyone running.
There's lots of sleepers in all these races which makes things very exciting. A lot of SQS standards should be hit this weekend so be prepared to update your fantasy draft board.
Which reminds me!
If anyone is interested in doing a fantasy draft for the state championships you can sign up now by facebook messaging me about it or commenting on this post. In order to do the draft, however, you will need a facebook account because we will use that site in order to draft teams. Thank you that is all.
I'm gonna run to class now. Literally. Peace.
New States Standards- The Relays
Last year I didn't think they should have added anyone to the 4x8 field (and maybe even the DMR field, I'd have to check exactly how many teams had hit the standard) but someone must have done a great job complaining to the ptfca, as two full heats of the 4x8 were granted. This may mean we can expect the same thing this year. I hope not, I'm hoping we will see a field of around 12 and 10 for the 4x8 and DMR respectively, but the way things were last year I can make no guarentees.
So let's assume that they end up doing something similar to last year when a whopping 23 teams were in the 4x8 (out of which 8 teams were added who did not actually hit the standard) and the DMR had 13 teams (out of which roughly 4 didn't hit the time? I don't know the standard off the top of my head with the flat to bank conversion, but the point is a decent amount didn't hit the standard). This makes me thing they will probably fill a field to about 20 in the 4x8 and 12 in the DMR this year. There is a still chance we will see the 12 and 10 of olden times, but don't get your hopes up.
So what does that mean?
Well first off we have to estimate who is running which relay, which does make things a bit tricky. Let's go down the list of top ranked teams who have so far qualified in both and have a decision on their hands. Here's how I think it ends up.
Strath Haven- 4x8, would have really liked to have seen a DMR, but in a team title race the smart move is to double back in the 4x8 with tired legs and try to pull out the win (they are seeded first admittedly) rather than battle some hungry DMR squads
Great Valley- DMR, I said before that they may have a better shot to win the 4x8 than the DMR depending on how the races play out, but this team has been about the DMR since last indoors. They will definitely go for Gold here.
Henderson- DMR, distance powerhouse with distance oriented legs, have to imagine they will go DMR.
North Penn- DMR, may even have all fresh legs. Trimble not running recently is still scary in my head, but I think this team has had DMR state gold on their mind for a while as well.
LaSalle- 4x8, it pains my heart, but the potential DMR showdown won't happen between all the top teams. LaSalle will most likely double their guys, they are very talented and ultimately individual chances at the medals usually prevail over a team record attempt. Especially when these guys still have a shot at gold on the way back in the 4x8.
When all is said and done out of teams who have hit the standard in each relay, here is who I think wil enter:
4x8
1. Strath Haven
2. Penncrest
3. Cardinal O'Hara
4. Penn Hills
5. Bensalem
6. Pennridge
7. Robeson
8. Chambersburg
9. CB East**
10. Cumberland Valley
11. CB West**
12. LaSalle (obviously have to improve this seed time this weekend and I expect they will)
13. Spring Ford
14. Upper Darby
The two teams marked with ** I think would opt for the DMR if they got in, they just don't have the standard yet. I expect both relays to go for it at MoC this coming weekend. If the two CB squads do not hit the standard 14 entries in the 4x8 SHOULD be enough to have one heat of the 4x8 decide the whole thing. Will the PTFCA have it this way? If last year was any indication as said above NO. But we will get to the extra teams later.
The teams who have hit the standard in the DMR that I expect to enter are:
1. Great Valley
2. HG Prep
3. Henderson
4. North Penn
5. GFS
6. North Allegheny
7. DT West
8. CR North
9. Hatboro Horsham
Now this field is at 9 which in theory should also be good enough to cap the field here and have one race out of only teams that have hit the standard. Altoona and CB East have the next two fastest times, and plenty of teams will probably seize this weekend as their big chance to go after the standards.
Overall the PTFCA will most likely add to both races if teams do not hit the SQS this weekend. In both races, I think there are teams who can hit the standard that have not before.
Here's the performance list for the relays at Lehigh at the Meet of Champs:
http://www.tfcaofgp.org/performancelist.html
A few teams like Lower Moreland and Bonner will probably shoot for the states time in the 4x8. In a packed DMR race of 19 teams CHA with Wilson on the anchor, CB East, CB West, Penncrest and Pennridge will probably all be hovering around the standard in a potentially very fast race. The DMR comes at the beginning of this meet.
Over on the west coast, Altoona, Baldwin, Trinity, and Penn Hills will most likely all aim for the standard.
My hope is enough teams hit botht that they don't have to add teams to the field. It should be an interesting weekend. I think enough teams will hit the standard in both the PTFCA will have enough reason to not add teams. So if you are on the cusp, you gotta seize the day this weekend boys.
Good luck gentlemen.
-train
So let's assume that they end up doing something similar to last year when a whopping 23 teams were in the 4x8 (out of which 8 teams were added who did not actually hit the standard) and the DMR had 13 teams (out of which roughly 4 didn't hit the time? I don't know the standard off the top of my head with the flat to bank conversion, but the point is a decent amount didn't hit the standard). This makes me thing they will probably fill a field to about 20 in the 4x8 and 12 in the DMR this year. There is a still chance we will see the 12 and 10 of olden times, but don't get your hopes up.
So what does that mean?
Well first off we have to estimate who is running which relay, which does make things a bit tricky. Let's go down the list of top ranked teams who have so far qualified in both and have a decision on their hands. Here's how I think it ends up.
Strath Haven- 4x8, would have really liked to have seen a DMR, but in a team title race the smart move is to double back in the 4x8 with tired legs and try to pull out the win (they are seeded first admittedly) rather than battle some hungry DMR squads
Great Valley- DMR, I said before that they may have a better shot to win the 4x8 than the DMR depending on how the races play out, but this team has been about the DMR since last indoors. They will definitely go for Gold here.
Henderson- DMR, distance powerhouse with distance oriented legs, have to imagine they will go DMR.
North Penn- DMR, may even have all fresh legs. Trimble not running recently is still scary in my head, but I think this team has had DMR state gold on their mind for a while as well.
LaSalle- 4x8, it pains my heart, but the potential DMR showdown won't happen between all the top teams. LaSalle will most likely double their guys, they are very talented and ultimately individual chances at the medals usually prevail over a team record attempt. Especially when these guys still have a shot at gold on the way back in the 4x8.
When all is said and done out of teams who have hit the standard in each relay, here is who I think wil enter:
4x8
1. Strath Haven
2. Penncrest
3. Cardinal O'Hara
4. Penn Hills
5. Bensalem
6. Pennridge
7. Robeson
8. Chambersburg
9. CB East**
10. Cumberland Valley
11. CB West**
12. LaSalle (obviously have to improve this seed time this weekend and I expect they will)
13. Spring Ford
14. Upper Darby
The two teams marked with ** I think would opt for the DMR if they got in, they just don't have the standard yet. I expect both relays to go for it at MoC this coming weekend. If the two CB squads do not hit the standard 14 entries in the 4x8 SHOULD be enough to have one heat of the 4x8 decide the whole thing. Will the PTFCA have it this way? If last year was any indication as said above NO. But we will get to the extra teams later.
The teams who have hit the standard in the DMR that I expect to enter are:
1. Great Valley
2. HG Prep
3. Henderson
4. North Penn
5. GFS
6. North Allegheny
7. DT West
8. CR North
9. Hatboro Horsham
Now this field is at 9 which in theory should also be good enough to cap the field here and have one race out of only teams that have hit the standard. Altoona and CB East have the next two fastest times, and plenty of teams will probably seize this weekend as their big chance to go after the standards.
Overall the PTFCA will most likely add to both races if teams do not hit the SQS this weekend. In both races, I think there are teams who can hit the standard that have not before.
Here's the performance list for the relays at Lehigh at the Meet of Champs:
http://www.tfcaofgp.org/performancelist.html
A few teams like Lower Moreland and Bonner will probably shoot for the states time in the 4x8. In a packed DMR race of 19 teams CHA with Wilson on the anchor, CB East, CB West, Penncrest and Pennridge will probably all be hovering around the standard in a potentially very fast race. The DMR comes at the beginning of this meet.
Over on the west coast, Altoona, Baldwin, Trinity, and Penn Hills will most likely all aim for the standard.
My hope is enough teams hit botht that they don't have to add teams to the field. It should be an interesting weekend. I think enough teams will hit the standard in both the PTFCA will have enough reason to not add teams. So if you are on the cusp, you gotta seize the day this weekend boys.
Good luck gentlemen.
-train
New States Standards: 3k
First off all I just want to say I'm really pumped to see a bunch of new posters joining up on track talk. Already some solid discussion there and I'm really hoping we can keep that going and get a really solid forum going. Not to beat a dead horse, but if you know penntrack posters who are frustrated with the lack of action on penntrack just send 'em over. Word.
Now on to what I actually wanted to talk about today which is the new ptfca rule they make basically every year where they are concerned about how many people have hit the time/standard for all the different events and are going to now try and fill the field with the next few fastest times. This really is only going to effect two things in terms of the track: the 3k, the 4x8 and the DMR.
So let's take a look see at what this means in the 3k. First off let me just say that last year they had 13 guys who ran in the 3k (all hit the standard) and this was run in just one heat. The previous year a field of 21 was run in two different sections. Therefore, my expectation for a "full field" in this race is about 10-12 runners.
Now obviously not everyone in the top 10-12 in the state are going to choose to run the 3k at states and additionally, runners will try and hit the SQS this weekend and if the field hits a total of 9 or more runners I don't think they will add to the field. One year they even ran a field of just 8 runners (I think it was 2007). So keep that in mind as I go on. Guys like Steiner and Mountain and Replogle as well as maybe some TFCAofGP guys will probably shoot for the time this coming weekend and are more than capable of hitting it.
But looking at the situation as it stands right now, here is what I see. On the men's side 10 have hit the SQS. Dustin Wilson is the #1 ranked and I would be utterly stunned if he doesn't race the 3k at states. Hibbs at #3 and Shearn at #4 would also be big surprises. Hibbs ran a fast mile this past weekend, but that should only indicate he is in great 3k shape, not a sharp change to the mile at states. He does have a solid DMR he can double back on, but I see it as Ryan Gil like situation from a year ago and he will almost certainly double with the 3k. Savage, Kuchta and Nissley should also all punch their tickets into states for the 3k. Savage and Kuchta each have border line DMR teams, but I don't expect either to make it, and even if their teams did, I think they would still have the chance to run the open 3k and double or (in O'Hara's case) be replaced by some other pieces originally not on the relay. This gives a field of 6 so far.
I'd be pretty shocked to see either Coyle or MacCauley entered in this race given their relay hype. If they were going to choose an event to double back from, it would not be the 3k (the mile in both cases would be the obvious choice). Willig is essentially a lock to not run the 3k. He has enough on his plate right now to be thinking of hopping into the 3k. Aziz is tough call here. I think GFS believes they have a good DMR (because they do) but Aziz in the 3k would really hurt their shots of placing high in a deep field (expected to be a deep field anyway). That being said Aziz may not even be a leg on this relay if GFS has some unforseen depth. GFS has managed to pull out a lot of surprising state medals (including when they ran a B squad without their 3 best runners) so maybe Aziz isn't a piece of this team's A squad. Even if he is, I think odds are he will be in the 3k at states. So the field is up to 7 now.
7 is just enough so that if anyone hits the SQS this weekend and wants to run the event at states, they may not add to the field. That being said, let's see who else is in the ball park of states time.
Ryan DeBarbarie 9:00.27 F
Mac Emery 9:01.92 F
Logan Steiner 9:03.53 B
Francis Ferruzzi 9:05.11 F
Ernie Pitone 9:05.49 F
Ethan Martin 9:05.59 B
Brett Kelly 9:05.83 F
Caleb Wakeley 9:06.40 B
Dan Davis 9:06.58 B
Mike Bilotta 9:07.36 F
Zach Israel 9:07.68 F
Now I expect Steiner, Pitone, Martin, Wakeley, Davis, Bilotta and Israel to go after this mark this coming weekend along with some other guys I mentioned above who may be able to hit the time but are not farther up on the list. Bilotta and Steiner did both just run very solid qualifying times in the mile this past weekend and both may have relays (O'Hara's 8:12's legs is very much up in the air) with medal aspirations. Steiner ran a great mile and his NA DMR has to be a big sleeper team in this whole race for the win. Him running the 3k at states would really hurt their chances. I expect him to not run the 3k come states unless he drops a low 8:50s time this weekend, then he will have a tough choice. Emery and Isreal are interesting to consider as well. Both have a potential top 5 DMR come states, but both are also replacable. Emery has Zingarini and Felt who can run the 16 and 12 respectively, and if they are deep enough at 800, Emery would be free to try and compete for a medal in the 3k. Israel has Kardish and Horgan who both are good enough to run the 12 and the 16, so depending on their other 800 guys, they also could replace Israel. That being said I don't see either of those guys opting for the 3k at states.
So what does this mean? Well my top guys on time right now are therefore:
1. Wilson
2. Aziz
3. Hibbs
4. Shearn
5. Savage
6. Kuchta
7. Nissley
8. DeBarbarie
9. Wakeley
10. Ferruzzi
11. Pitone
12. Mountain
I think Wakeley drops a pretty nice time that's not quite SQS that moves him the list. Pitone doesn't drop a faster than 3k than the previous weekend, Mountain doesn't quite run fast enough to edge out the other guys on the list. No one else chooses to enter the 3k that is ranked higher than these guys.
I think they cap the field at 10 and the top 10 guys on that list get in.
It's pretty speculative at this point, but this is my prediction. Only one more weekend to find out.
Enjoy.
Now on to what I actually wanted to talk about today which is the new ptfca rule they make basically every year where they are concerned about how many people have hit the time/standard for all the different events and are going to now try and fill the field with the next few fastest times. This really is only going to effect two things in terms of the track: the 3k, the 4x8 and the DMR.
So let's take a look see at what this means in the 3k. First off let me just say that last year they had 13 guys who ran in the 3k (all hit the standard) and this was run in just one heat. The previous year a field of 21 was run in two different sections. Therefore, my expectation for a "full field" in this race is about 10-12 runners.
Now obviously not everyone in the top 10-12 in the state are going to choose to run the 3k at states and additionally, runners will try and hit the SQS this weekend and if the field hits a total of 9 or more runners I don't think they will add to the field. One year they even ran a field of just 8 runners (I think it was 2007). So keep that in mind as I go on. Guys like Steiner and Mountain and Replogle as well as maybe some TFCAofGP guys will probably shoot for the time this coming weekend and are more than capable of hitting it.
But looking at the situation as it stands right now, here is what I see. On the men's side 10 have hit the SQS. Dustin Wilson is the #1 ranked and I would be utterly stunned if he doesn't race the 3k at states. Hibbs at #3 and Shearn at #4 would also be big surprises. Hibbs ran a fast mile this past weekend, but that should only indicate he is in great 3k shape, not a sharp change to the mile at states. He does have a solid DMR he can double back on, but I see it as Ryan Gil like situation from a year ago and he will almost certainly double with the 3k. Savage, Kuchta and Nissley should also all punch their tickets into states for the 3k. Savage and Kuchta each have border line DMR teams, but I don't expect either to make it, and even if their teams did, I think they would still have the chance to run the open 3k and double or (in O'Hara's case) be replaced by some other pieces originally not on the relay. This gives a field of 6 so far.
I'd be pretty shocked to see either Coyle or MacCauley entered in this race given their relay hype. If they were going to choose an event to double back from, it would not be the 3k (the mile in both cases would be the obvious choice). Willig is essentially a lock to not run the 3k. He has enough on his plate right now to be thinking of hopping into the 3k. Aziz is tough call here. I think GFS believes they have a good DMR (because they do) but Aziz in the 3k would really hurt their shots of placing high in a deep field (expected to be a deep field anyway). That being said Aziz may not even be a leg on this relay if GFS has some unforseen depth. GFS has managed to pull out a lot of surprising state medals (including when they ran a B squad without their 3 best runners) so maybe Aziz isn't a piece of this team's A squad. Even if he is, I think odds are he will be in the 3k at states. So the field is up to 7 now.
7 is just enough so that if anyone hits the SQS this weekend and wants to run the event at states, they may not add to the field. That being said, let's see who else is in the ball park of states time.
Ryan DeBarbarie 9:00.27 F
Mac Emery 9:01.92 F
Logan Steiner 9:03.53 B
Francis Ferruzzi 9:05.11 F
Ernie Pitone 9:05.49 F
Ethan Martin 9:05.59 B
Brett Kelly 9:05.83 F
Caleb Wakeley 9:06.40 B
Dan Davis 9:06.58 B
Mike Bilotta 9:07.36 F
Zach Israel 9:07.68 F
Now I expect Steiner, Pitone, Martin, Wakeley, Davis, Bilotta and Israel to go after this mark this coming weekend along with some other guys I mentioned above who may be able to hit the time but are not farther up on the list. Bilotta and Steiner did both just run very solid qualifying times in the mile this past weekend and both may have relays (O'Hara's 8:12's legs is very much up in the air) with medal aspirations. Steiner ran a great mile and his NA DMR has to be a big sleeper team in this whole race for the win. Him running the 3k at states would really hurt their chances. I expect him to not run the 3k come states unless he drops a low 8:50s time this weekend, then he will have a tough choice. Emery and Isreal are interesting to consider as well. Both have a potential top 5 DMR come states, but both are also replacable. Emery has Zingarini and Felt who can run the 16 and 12 respectively, and if they are deep enough at 800, Emery would be free to try and compete for a medal in the 3k. Israel has Kardish and Horgan who both are good enough to run the 12 and the 16, so depending on their other 800 guys, they also could replace Israel. That being said I don't see either of those guys opting for the 3k at states.
So what does this mean? Well my top guys on time right now are therefore:
1. Wilson
2. Aziz
3. Hibbs
4. Shearn
5. Savage
6. Kuchta
7. Nissley
8. DeBarbarie
9. Wakeley
10. Ferruzzi
11. Pitone
12. Mountain
I think Wakeley drops a pretty nice time that's not quite SQS that moves him the list. Pitone doesn't drop a faster than 3k than the previous weekend, Mountain doesn't quite run fast enough to edge out the other guys on the list. No one else chooses to enter the 3k that is ranked higher than these guys.
I think they cap the field at 10 and the top 10 guys on that list get in.
It's pretty speculative at this point, but this is my prediction. Only one more weekend to find out.
Enjoy.
Valentine's Day
So I guess you guys didn't love my idea of going over to track talk to start up some forums on there and make it our stomping ground, but that's ok, I only cried for 45 minutes.
It's Valentine's Day today so I was trying desperately to think of a good valentine's day themed post for today but the only things that came to mind were posts that I would only make if I was Lobster and would never make if I was me (which last time I checked, I still am). So that put me into a bit of a predicament.
I would say I love running I suppose, but not enough to buy it flowers or chocolates. Its kind of more of a love hate thing if I'm being perfectly honest. There are some days I just go out for my run and the whole time I wish I was somewhere else.
But there are other days where I can't help but lose myself in the thrill of the long run, 13 or so miles without anything to worry about just myself and my thoughts. Its nice to get away, relax and unwind sometimes.
Running is kind of a fickle girlfriend. I wouldn't say she gets jealous, although I know it some peoples cases it does. If he play another sport too often like basketball or football, than running is more likely to injure them in their legs so they can't go cheating behind her back anymore.
I'll tell you one thing, what they say is true, Running needs a lot of shoes. She needs racing shoes and training shoes and training flats and its like a new shoe every two months. I swear the money I spend on shoes for Running is outrageous.
But being with Running has it's rewards. There are very few people that I would lay my health and well being on the line for week after week, but I do it without hesistation for Running. I enjoy it actually. And there is nothing like the thrill I get when Running rewards me for giving everything to her. I'm happy for at least a few days, maybe a whole week. And Running has given me a lifetime of memories.
Its hard to imagine us ever breaking up. Most people know me only because of her. She kinda gets around. But I guess I don't mind. I'm not gonna say I haven't been jealous when people get farther with Running than I do, but that's the thing, Running is kind of what you make of it. You can have your own successes and failures.
And like they say, what you put into a relationship is what you get out of it.
Well anyway sorry I couldn't come up with anything Valentine's Day related to talk about. Have a great holiday trainstation.
It's Valentine's Day today so I was trying desperately to think of a good valentine's day themed post for today but the only things that came to mind were posts that I would only make if I was Lobster and would never make if I was me (which last time I checked, I still am). So that put me into a bit of a predicament.
I would say I love running I suppose, but not enough to buy it flowers or chocolates. Its kind of more of a love hate thing if I'm being perfectly honest. There are some days I just go out for my run and the whole time I wish I was somewhere else.
But there are other days where I can't help but lose myself in the thrill of the long run, 13 or so miles without anything to worry about just myself and my thoughts. Its nice to get away, relax and unwind sometimes.
Running is kind of a fickle girlfriend. I wouldn't say she gets jealous, although I know it some peoples cases it does. If he play another sport too often like basketball or football, than running is more likely to injure them in their legs so they can't go cheating behind her back anymore.
I'll tell you one thing, what they say is true, Running needs a lot of shoes. She needs racing shoes and training shoes and training flats and its like a new shoe every two months. I swear the money I spend on shoes for Running is outrageous.
But being with Running has it's rewards. There are very few people that I would lay my health and well being on the line for week after week, but I do it without hesistation for Running. I enjoy it actually. And there is nothing like the thrill I get when Running rewards me for giving everything to her. I'm happy for at least a few days, maybe a whole week. And Running has given me a lifetime of memories.
Its hard to imagine us ever breaking up. Most people know me only because of her. She kinda gets around. But I guess I don't mind. I'm not gonna say I haven't been jealous when people get farther with Running than I do, but that's the thing, Running is kind of what you make of it. You can have your own successes and failures.
And like they say, what you put into a relationship is what you get out of it.
Well anyway sorry I couldn't come up with anything Valentine's Day related to talk about. Have a great holiday trainstation.
Proposistion for You
So my post streak has continued and I have made a bunch of posts on here that have led to some interesting discussion and debate and what not, but the fact of the matter is I can do a lot more damage in terms of answer individual questions and trying to gain splits if we have a big network of posters like we did back in the day on penntrack.
But quite frankly, Penntrack has been sucking in the forum department of late. They have solid articles and they are great for finding meet results and looking up times and stuff like that, but the forums have been lacking. Plus I don't have an account on there anymore seeing as mine gone deleted, so I can't help in that respect either.
So here is my proposistion for all of you guys who love to talk track.
There is a little known website called www.tracktalk.net which has forums similar to the dyestat forums of old about all the major states, the national scene, the college scene, the pro scene, nething you can think of. I have an account on there and I really like the forum set up. But the PA forum sucks because no one posts in it.
That is why I would encourage everyone who reads my blog, loves to talk track, or wishes we had the penntrack of old back to make an account on this site and start up the forums on here and get back into the big discussions and conversations of old. It takes like two seconds to get an account and I think this can really improve the quality of conversation based off ideas originating here on the blog or on penntrack and results of any kind.
Spread the word! Tell people to join in! It would be great to have a real lot of people come take over this site and make it big.
If you're not interested it's cool, but I'm about to start a forum over there so feel free to jump in, just go to www.tracktalk.net, make an account and scroll down to where it says Pennsylvania and look for my threads I started up.
-train
But quite frankly, Penntrack has been sucking in the forum department of late. They have solid articles and they are great for finding meet results and looking up times and stuff like that, but the forums have been lacking. Plus I don't have an account on there anymore seeing as mine gone deleted, so I can't help in that respect either.
So here is my proposistion for all of you guys who love to talk track.
There is a little known website called www.tracktalk.net which has forums similar to the dyestat forums of old about all the major states, the national scene, the college scene, the pro scene, nething you can think of. I have an account on there and I really like the forum set up. But the PA forum sucks because no one posts in it.
That is why I would encourage everyone who reads my blog, loves to talk track, or wishes we had the penntrack of old back to make an account on this site and start up the forums on here and get back into the big discussions and conversations of old. It takes like two seconds to get an account and I think this can really improve the quality of conversation based off ideas originating here on the blog or on penntrack and results of any kind.
Spread the word! Tell people to join in! It would be great to have a real lot of people come take over this site and make it big.
If you're not interested it's cool, but I'm about to start a forum over there so feel free to jump in, just go to www.tracktalk.net, make an account and scroll down to where it says Pennsylvania and look for my threads I started up.
-train
Weekend Update
So folks I, as always, have some stuff to say about the events of this weekend that didn't occur on Muhlenberg College's track, and there were plenty of interesting things on my radar from this past 10-12 weekend.
Let's start, as would only make sense, on the scene at the Armory for the Millrose games. Well folks on a big stage with great competition we saw what Strath Haven can put together with 4 fresh legs in the 4x8. It wasn't much faster than Penncrest, but it was faster, a 7:54.31 1st place finish. I missed the race unfortunately, so I don't know splits or how things played out, but from the looks of the result sheet, just like Penncrest they had good competition throughout. This time does not, however, make me believe a doubling Haven is better than a fresh Penncrest. This does say to me that a doubling Haven is better than a doubling Penncrest. We will see how things go come states.
And of course it hurts me to say that Ned did not perform out of this world at Millrose and did not even scare any state records in the process. He never really looked comfortable out there, tripping early in the race and not really knowing which pack to stay in. I know he could have definitely ran what Zavon did, but he wasn't close by the time it mattered. I don't know the full story (sickness, nerves whatever), but I do know that no matter what happened, the rest of the field in the mile got excited. This guy isn't invincible, and I see it as much more likely that he will be upset at states now, than I did yesterday.
Now we move back a night to the show at Lehigh on Friday at the last chance meet. First off two nice relay performances from GFS and DT West to punch another ticket to states. DT West is a big sleeper in the relays this year, they were the surprise here, not GFS who has gotten a huge boost in support after the recent runs by Aziz and Wistar. Still going to need a faster time than that to compete for top 3 or so at states, but a great start for GFS. In the mile I was really happy to see a performance like that from Hibbs. Pretty fast time for that track and beat Brett Kelly in the process. Should boost Hibbs' confidence and hopefully help him drop a faster 3k at the state meet. Nice run by Metzler to get in to states as well. His name hasn't popped up for a while, but he's no slouch. Nice run by Logue again and also good to see Rivera's name under 2. He's rounding into shape at the right time to make noise at states. Great runs by Emery and MacCauley (and Kelly on the double is impressive as well). I don't expect MacCauley to run this at states, but it is a good sign that he is in great shape and will be a top anchor in the DMR. No Trimble in the results for a while now. Hope all is well health wise for him. As for Emery, it's a tough near miss on states time, but he's got the DMR anyway so the 3k would most likely not be on his agenda. All the same, a top 8 or so time in the state is impressive and adds to the power of his relay come states.
The next day at the Carnival .... First off brief hurdle shout out, nice run by Willet. He could surprise at states if Williams is off his game. I doubt it, but in that short of a hurdle race, you never know what will happen. TJ Elliot was also straight killing it at Lehigh. A couple very nice times. Niager Mathis looked good too. Nice piece for the Swenson relays. Todaro and Rotz qualify in the mile. Solid, nothing great, nothing unexpected. Nissley a little disappointing, but most likely he was running the 3k fresh at states regardless. Not a good sign that he is going to drop a lot from 8:58 however. Nice run by Stiles in the 4. Not sure what happened to Shisler? If he didn't fall this is a tough blow to his confidence. He goes from being one of the state favorites to trying to hang on for a medal. Shows how fast PSU's track is. Holder pulled it out in the 800m, rounding into top shape at this point which is a great sign for those of you who picked him in the late rounds of your fantasy drafts. I stand by my pick for him as a major sleeper at states this year. Not a super fast time, but he did beat one of the best 600m runners in the nation in Haneef Hardy. How about the run by Ryan Dickson? I've been waiting for this since May as he finally rounds back into sub 2 shape. This guy will be a deep sleeper for the medals at states as well. CB South as a bit of a history with guys stepping up. Not sure what happened to Kunzweiler. Bit of a let down, but a lot of hype is falling on his shoulders after one great XC race. The rest of his season wasn't the same as his 14th finish. Hopefully he bounces back in the coming weeks. Nice run for Ferruzzi in the 3k. No competition however. So no states 3k for him, good shot at the mile next weekend. Lastly, no Futch in the opens? I know he split super fast, but I still worry about him undertaking a busy schedule at states if he hasn't been racing much of late. If they ran 3:26.86 without him, however, that would be very impressive, so I assume he at least ran that relay.
And finally we journey back to Lehigh one more time for the PCL championships. Nice run by Hamilton in the 200. Not what Elliot and Mathis did but definitely has his name in the state champion conversation. He won his race by over a second and set the meet record. Good run by Jack Magee to take home a SQS (on the double from the mile by the way) and give LaSalle 3 guys under the mark. That DMR looks record setting if they keep the group fresh. Coyle and Stone in the mile doing what they've done all year, run fast and finish 1st and 2nd. Both guys are really ready to move fast. Coyle's 4:21 on Lehigh's track makes him the favorite for 2nd if he opts for the open mile in my mind. And if Ned doesn't have his day again, there is no reason to think Coyle can't win. I stand by my opinion that Stone's best shot to make noise is the 800. If he runs the mile, I can't guarentee he will get a medal with the way the field has been shaping up of late. And oh yeah Coyle on the double in 8:55 on a flat track? Very impressive effort as he and Dan Savage (who also ran a great time of 8:56) are forming quite the rivalry with Coyle winning all but their states battle recently (the one that matters the most ironically). Great sign for Savage who punches his ticket to states and has a legit chance at medaling/top 5 (especially if the field only has 8 runners or so). I feel real bad for the Landsdale Catholic bloke. 9:00.27. Missed it by .04 in the 3k, the toughest event there is. I'm keeping my fingers crossed the meet doesn't get enough entries to fill the field and this guy gets in. Great run to emerge onto the scene for Ryan DeBarberie.
Let's start, as would only make sense, on the scene at the Armory for the Millrose games. Well folks on a big stage with great competition we saw what Strath Haven can put together with 4 fresh legs in the 4x8. It wasn't much faster than Penncrest, but it was faster, a 7:54.31 1st place finish. I missed the race unfortunately, so I don't know splits or how things played out, but from the looks of the result sheet, just like Penncrest they had good competition throughout. This time does not, however, make me believe a doubling Haven is better than a fresh Penncrest. This does say to me that a doubling Haven is better than a doubling Penncrest. We will see how things go come states.
And of course it hurts me to say that Ned did not perform out of this world at Millrose and did not even scare any state records in the process. He never really looked comfortable out there, tripping early in the race and not really knowing which pack to stay in. I know he could have definitely ran what Zavon did, but he wasn't close by the time it mattered. I don't know the full story (sickness, nerves whatever), but I do know that no matter what happened, the rest of the field in the mile got excited. This guy isn't invincible, and I see it as much more likely that he will be upset at states now, than I did yesterday.
Now we move back a night to the show at Lehigh on Friday at the last chance meet. First off two nice relay performances from GFS and DT West to punch another ticket to states. DT West is a big sleeper in the relays this year, they were the surprise here, not GFS who has gotten a huge boost in support after the recent runs by Aziz and Wistar. Still going to need a faster time than that to compete for top 3 or so at states, but a great start for GFS. In the mile I was really happy to see a performance like that from Hibbs. Pretty fast time for that track and beat Brett Kelly in the process. Should boost Hibbs' confidence and hopefully help him drop a faster 3k at the state meet. Nice run by Metzler to get in to states as well. His name hasn't popped up for a while, but he's no slouch. Nice run by Logue again and also good to see Rivera's name under 2. He's rounding into shape at the right time to make noise at states. Great runs by Emery and MacCauley (and Kelly on the double is impressive as well). I don't expect MacCauley to run this at states, but it is a good sign that he is in great shape and will be a top anchor in the DMR. No Trimble in the results for a while now. Hope all is well health wise for him. As for Emery, it's a tough near miss on states time, but he's got the DMR anyway so the 3k would most likely not be on his agenda. All the same, a top 8 or so time in the state is impressive and adds to the power of his relay come states.
The next day at the Carnival .... First off brief hurdle shout out, nice run by Willet. He could surprise at states if Williams is off his game. I doubt it, but in that short of a hurdle race, you never know what will happen. TJ Elliot was also straight killing it at Lehigh. A couple very nice times. Niager Mathis looked good too. Nice piece for the Swenson relays. Todaro and Rotz qualify in the mile. Solid, nothing great, nothing unexpected. Nissley a little disappointing, but most likely he was running the 3k fresh at states regardless. Not a good sign that he is going to drop a lot from 8:58 however. Nice run by Stiles in the 4. Not sure what happened to Shisler? If he didn't fall this is a tough blow to his confidence. He goes from being one of the state favorites to trying to hang on for a medal. Shows how fast PSU's track is. Holder pulled it out in the 800m, rounding into top shape at this point which is a great sign for those of you who picked him in the late rounds of your fantasy drafts. I stand by my pick for him as a major sleeper at states this year. Not a super fast time, but he did beat one of the best 600m runners in the nation in Haneef Hardy. How about the run by Ryan Dickson? I've been waiting for this since May as he finally rounds back into sub 2 shape. This guy will be a deep sleeper for the medals at states as well. CB South as a bit of a history with guys stepping up. Not sure what happened to Kunzweiler. Bit of a let down, but a lot of hype is falling on his shoulders after one great XC race. The rest of his season wasn't the same as his 14th finish. Hopefully he bounces back in the coming weeks. Nice run for Ferruzzi in the 3k. No competition however. So no states 3k for him, good shot at the mile next weekend. Lastly, no Futch in the opens? I know he split super fast, but I still worry about him undertaking a busy schedule at states if he hasn't been racing much of late. If they ran 3:26.86 without him, however, that would be very impressive, so I assume he at least ran that relay.
And finally we journey back to Lehigh one more time for the PCL championships. Nice run by Hamilton in the 200. Not what Elliot and Mathis did but definitely has his name in the state champion conversation. He won his race by over a second and set the meet record. Good run by Jack Magee to take home a SQS (on the double from the mile by the way) and give LaSalle 3 guys under the mark. That DMR looks record setting if they keep the group fresh. Coyle and Stone in the mile doing what they've done all year, run fast and finish 1st and 2nd. Both guys are really ready to move fast. Coyle's 4:21 on Lehigh's track makes him the favorite for 2nd if he opts for the open mile in my mind. And if Ned doesn't have his day again, there is no reason to think Coyle can't win. I stand by my opinion that Stone's best shot to make noise is the 800. If he runs the mile, I can't guarentee he will get a medal with the way the field has been shaping up of late. And oh yeah Coyle on the double in 8:55 on a flat track? Very impressive effort as he and Dan Savage (who also ran a great time of 8:56) are forming quite the rivalry with Coyle winning all but their states battle recently (the one that matters the most ironically). Great sign for Savage who punches his ticket to states and has a legit chance at medaling/top 5 (especially if the field only has 8 runners or so). I feel real bad for the Landsdale Catholic bloke. 9:00.27. Missed it by .04 in the 3k, the toughest event there is. I'm keeping my fingers crossed the meet doesn't get enough entries to fill the field and this guy gets in. Great run to emerge onto the scene for Ryan DeBarberie.
True Inspiration
I have a story for all of you out there about one of the most amazing races I have ever witnesed in person. There was only one person in this race. Not anyone famous on a global, national, or even state scale. A man with just a 2:08 800m PR from a small college known as Muhlenberg. His name, for the sake of protection, will be Kid.
Now it was an ordinary Friday night at Muhlenberg College. Some members were relaxing around after a solid workout, others were enjoying the taste of an alcoholic beverage. It is college after all and that stuff goes on a lot. So Kid was drinking, played a few drinking games, and was about 8 beers deep when our crew took a walk over to our on campus eating establishment GQ. Now Kid sat down and, the tank that he is, ate a hardy helping of a quesdilla. Somehow the conversation at the table turned, as most often it does when sitting at a table with me, to running.
The exact conversation that led up to this point was shaky, but, ultimately, I said something to Kid to the effect of, I would give you 50 dollars if you ran a 2:12 right now. Well folks in Allentown, PA at around 1 o'clock on a snowy night you would not expect someone to take you up on a half joking offer. But Kid was confident that he could do it. Was this confidence from his liquid confidence he had ingested earlier that night? That much was not quite clear, but the confidence was undeniable.
So Kid proceeeded to go outside to go for a warm up accompanied by his good friend 3s company who had had a similar amount to drink that night. 3s company could not make it very far into the warm up, maybe 2 mintues, before turning around and coming back. So my confidence that Kid would fail at the task of running 2:12 was all but affirmed.
But Kid continued to warm up, and after deciding breaking in to the school lockeroom was not the smartest idea, decided to go to his friend Lion Paw's room. Lion Paw was in the middle of entertaining a lady friend by Kid was unpreturbed. He borrowed spikes from Lion Paw that were missing 6 out of the 10 spikes from the bottom, including all of them on his left foot.
But still Kid was confident. He came back to our table at GQ and gathered us up to head over to our outdoor track. My friend Space Jam decided to split the pay off with me 25 and 25 if he succeeded, but obviously we were both fairly confident he would not. The bets as we walked over to the track as our group were not how fast he would go, but how far would he make it before he gave up.
It was chilly and snowy for all of us as we walked to the track. Kid hopped the fence. The rest of us realized the gate was open and went around. We stood at the track in the dark. It is important also to realize that our track currently has a sink hole being fixed in lane one. Meaning there were barriers out to lane three on the home stretch for about 10m. This would only add to the problems Kid was facing.
He did a stride and some high knees and approached the line. He took off both his sweatshirt and sweat pants to reveal neon yellow women's running shorts and a shirtless musclar figure approach the line. My friend Sam borrowed a camera phone from Girl to film.
I started my watch when Kid took off and all of us together started to cheer. Ahead of time we had agreed that we would tell him his 400 split was 65 regardless in order to ensure maximum effort. As Kid ran he looked like he was moving quick, estimating the 200m split at about 32-33 seconds. As he approached the line I read off 63, 64, 65. My friends looked at me, questioning if I had lied. I turned back and said, nope he's actually on pace!
The crowd of us 4 was jumping around and screaming as he ran around the track. The official split was 65 high so he would really have to push. He came around on to the final straightaway still on pace, our section going crazy. Sam gave out a cheer of "Do You Believe in Miracles" as Kid ran to the line and the watch stopped. 2:10.84. A negative split performance within 2 seconds of his PR in not at all ideal conditions.
Never before had I wanted to run like did just then. It was a true gutsy performance that admittedly probably wasn't the smartest move for Kid or any of us, but it was worth every cent that we paid up after he ran. Kid is looking forward to using this money for his Metallica concert.
Now it was an ordinary Friday night at Muhlenberg College. Some members were relaxing around after a solid workout, others were enjoying the taste of an alcoholic beverage. It is college after all and that stuff goes on a lot. So Kid was drinking, played a few drinking games, and was about 8 beers deep when our crew took a walk over to our on campus eating establishment GQ. Now Kid sat down and, the tank that he is, ate a hardy helping of a quesdilla. Somehow the conversation at the table turned, as most often it does when sitting at a table with me, to running.
The exact conversation that led up to this point was shaky, but, ultimately, I said something to Kid to the effect of, I would give you 50 dollars if you ran a 2:12 right now. Well folks in Allentown, PA at around 1 o'clock on a snowy night you would not expect someone to take you up on a half joking offer. But Kid was confident that he could do it. Was this confidence from his liquid confidence he had ingested earlier that night? That much was not quite clear, but the confidence was undeniable.
So Kid proceeeded to go outside to go for a warm up accompanied by his good friend 3s company who had had a similar amount to drink that night. 3s company could not make it very far into the warm up, maybe 2 mintues, before turning around and coming back. So my confidence that Kid would fail at the task of running 2:12 was all but affirmed.
But Kid continued to warm up, and after deciding breaking in to the school lockeroom was not the smartest idea, decided to go to his friend Lion Paw's room. Lion Paw was in the middle of entertaining a lady friend by Kid was unpreturbed. He borrowed spikes from Lion Paw that were missing 6 out of the 10 spikes from the bottom, including all of them on his left foot.
But still Kid was confident. He came back to our table at GQ and gathered us up to head over to our outdoor track. My friend Space Jam decided to split the pay off with me 25 and 25 if he succeeded, but obviously we were both fairly confident he would not. The bets as we walked over to the track as our group were not how fast he would go, but how far would he make it before he gave up.
It was chilly and snowy for all of us as we walked to the track. Kid hopped the fence. The rest of us realized the gate was open and went around. We stood at the track in the dark. It is important also to realize that our track currently has a sink hole being fixed in lane one. Meaning there were barriers out to lane three on the home stretch for about 10m. This would only add to the problems Kid was facing.
He did a stride and some high knees and approached the line. He took off both his sweatshirt and sweat pants to reveal neon yellow women's running shorts and a shirtless musclar figure approach the line. My friend Sam borrowed a camera phone from Girl to film.
I started my watch when Kid took off and all of us together started to cheer. Ahead of time we had agreed that we would tell him his 400 split was 65 regardless in order to ensure maximum effort. As Kid ran he looked like he was moving quick, estimating the 200m split at about 32-33 seconds. As he approached the line I read off 63, 64, 65. My friends looked at me, questioning if I had lied. I turned back and said, nope he's actually on pace!
The crowd of us 4 was jumping around and screaming as he ran around the track. The official split was 65 high so he would really have to push. He came around on to the final straightaway still on pace, our section going crazy. Sam gave out a cheer of "Do You Believe in Miracles" as Kid ran to the line and the watch stopped. 2:10.84. A negative split performance within 2 seconds of his PR in not at all ideal conditions.
Never before had I wanted to run like did just then. It was a true gutsy performance that admittedly probably wasn't the smartest move for Kid or any of us, but it was worth every cent that we paid up after he ran. Kid is looking forward to using this money for his Metallica concert.
Upsets
So since yesterday I talked about how there could be a lot of favorite dominated events by indoor states I decided I'd talk about some of the great upsets that have happened at indoor states in past years.
Let's start in 2007. In the 60m Dash state favorite Brandon Bing (who went on to win the 200m later in the meet and the 200 and the 400 outdoors) was DQd for a false start in the finals after qualifying first in the semis. As a results Kashif Smith ran to a surprising win in 6.96. In the 400m dash the hot heat featured big names like Khaliff Featherstone, Chad Sargent and Josh Potts, but a tangle up in the final heat led to Featherstone fall and 75 second 400m, while the rest of the group all stayed above 50 seconds when the dust cleared. Therefore, Austin Perron of Engineering and Science's surprised with a state gold from the 3rd of 4 heats. Although he didn't win the race, Corey Grove pulled out a great upset of sorts in the 800m when his time of 1:54.91 ended up being fast enough to beat out Chris Ferry and defending outdoor state champion Andrew Lobb on the podium.
In 2008, the meet was started off with a bang as Max Kaulbach surprised Vince McNally and Nick Crits with a furious kick to stun Crits and take gold at the state championships in his off event, the Mile. In 3000m with names like Dennin, Kaulbach, Lee and Aldrich in the race, it was Josh Izewski and Chris Bodary who turned heads taking 1-2 at the meet with very fast times of 8:30 and 8:32. Chris Bodary's 2nd place finish was even more impressive because he was one of two members of the top 9 finishers in the race who never received a gold medal at states. In the 4x4 final, a tired group of kids from Engineering and Science's fresh of a DMR upset, ran to the win on the legs of a hobbled Austin Perron who managed to hold off some big charges by guys like Justin Bookheimer and Khaliff Featherstone's Simon Gratz squad. The favorite before the race, Harrisburg ran to a disappointing 3:32. In the DMR E and S was the heavy favorite but a fresh LaSalle team and a close to fresh Penncrest team hopped in and upended the party taking one-two with great legs from guys like Pat Meyers and Dan Lowry. An upset of sorts also came from the GFS squad. The team ran without their 3 best runners and still found themselves on the medal stand, placing 7th.
In 2009 it was an upset of sorts when Alex Kenney found himself in 5th place in the 60m dash finals, a disappointing finish for a state title contender since his freshman year. It was an upset on the record book in the men's 800. In a race that some chose Palmisano and some chose Mallon, Mallon not only surprised with a dominating sprint to the finish, but also shocked the state with a 6 second seasonal best to smash Paul Vandegrift's indoor state record as just a Junior, and put himself in the top 15 (at the time) on the national all time list. The mile was essentially a who's who of upsets. The top 4 spots were taken by guys with little experience this close to the podium. A slow time in the fast heat paved the way as Ivo Milic upset both Ben Furcht and TJ Hobart in order to take the victory in the mile. In the slow section Matt McCullough, Matt Chylak and Dustin Horning ran to 2-4 finishes with great efforts. Furcht was a disappoint 5th, Tarsnane, the defending XC state champion, was 8th, Wade Endress was 15th and TJ Hobart DNFed. In the 3k there was a bit of a surprise as well when Bobby Micikas outkicked Ben Furcht and the two ran very quick times of 8:35 and 8:36.
In 2010, the biggest story after the meet was over was the big upset run by Luke Lefebure. A tired Tom Mallon let the pace slow too much in his final heat and as a result Luke Lefebure, Dorian Rumble and Tres Moore all ran their way onto the podium's top 3 posistions. Lefebure wasn't even regarded on the top runner on his team and broke through relative unknown status to cross the line with a gold. In the DMR Wade Endress came within 3 one hundreths of a second of pulling off a big upset win. Endress just missed nipping Will Kellar at the line for the victory as an Altoona team, known for its sprinting powerhouse, nearly walked away with gold in the distance medley relay.
In 2011, the 60m Dash presented us with another great upset run as defending state champion in the 100m Tyler Smith was surprised by TJ Elliot by 2 hundreths of a second to take the gold. Smith had run faster than anyone else in the semis by over a tenth of a second. In the 800m, defending state champion Luke Lefebure and a fresh group that included stud Kyle Moran and up and comer Hong Cho were all dropped by Wade Endress and a record setting performance on the double from a PR in the mile. Endress closed hard after an early fast pace by Moran and ran his way just under the state record that Mallon had set just two years before. In the 4x8 the upset came in a big way as CB West, who had yet to break 8 flat on the season, stunned the new state record holders of Abington by breaking Abington's record with a 7:45.06 wire to wire victory. Boyertown clocked a bit of an upset of their own when they surprised the DMR field taking second over highly praised West Chester Henderson, CR North and others.
Let's start in 2007. In the 60m Dash state favorite Brandon Bing (who went on to win the 200m later in the meet and the 200 and the 400 outdoors) was DQd for a false start in the finals after qualifying first in the semis. As a results Kashif Smith ran to a surprising win in 6.96. In the 400m dash the hot heat featured big names like Khaliff Featherstone, Chad Sargent and Josh Potts, but a tangle up in the final heat led to Featherstone fall and 75 second 400m, while the rest of the group all stayed above 50 seconds when the dust cleared. Therefore, Austin Perron of Engineering and Science's surprised with a state gold from the 3rd of 4 heats. Although he didn't win the race, Corey Grove pulled out a great upset of sorts in the 800m when his time of 1:54.91 ended up being fast enough to beat out Chris Ferry and defending outdoor state champion Andrew Lobb on the podium.
In 2008, the meet was started off with a bang as Max Kaulbach surprised Vince McNally and Nick Crits with a furious kick to stun Crits and take gold at the state championships in his off event, the Mile. In 3000m with names like Dennin, Kaulbach, Lee and Aldrich in the race, it was Josh Izewski and Chris Bodary who turned heads taking 1-2 at the meet with very fast times of 8:30 and 8:32. Chris Bodary's 2nd place finish was even more impressive because he was one of two members of the top 9 finishers in the race who never received a gold medal at states. In the 4x4 final, a tired group of kids from Engineering and Science's fresh of a DMR upset, ran to the win on the legs of a hobbled Austin Perron who managed to hold off some big charges by guys like Justin Bookheimer and Khaliff Featherstone's Simon Gratz squad. The favorite before the race, Harrisburg ran to a disappointing 3:32. In the DMR E and S was the heavy favorite but a fresh LaSalle team and a close to fresh Penncrest team hopped in and upended the party taking one-two with great legs from guys like Pat Meyers and Dan Lowry. An upset of sorts also came from the GFS squad. The team ran without their 3 best runners and still found themselves on the medal stand, placing 7th.
In 2009 it was an upset of sorts when Alex Kenney found himself in 5th place in the 60m dash finals, a disappointing finish for a state title contender since his freshman year. It was an upset on the record book in the men's 800. In a race that some chose Palmisano and some chose Mallon, Mallon not only surprised with a dominating sprint to the finish, but also shocked the state with a 6 second seasonal best to smash Paul Vandegrift's indoor state record as just a Junior, and put himself in the top 15 (at the time) on the national all time list. The mile was essentially a who's who of upsets. The top 4 spots were taken by guys with little experience this close to the podium. A slow time in the fast heat paved the way as Ivo Milic upset both Ben Furcht and TJ Hobart in order to take the victory in the mile. In the slow section Matt McCullough, Matt Chylak and Dustin Horning ran to 2-4 finishes with great efforts. Furcht was a disappoint 5th, Tarsnane, the defending XC state champion, was 8th, Wade Endress was 15th and TJ Hobart DNFed. In the 3k there was a bit of a surprise as well when Bobby Micikas outkicked Ben Furcht and the two ran very quick times of 8:35 and 8:36.
In 2010, the biggest story after the meet was over was the big upset run by Luke Lefebure. A tired Tom Mallon let the pace slow too much in his final heat and as a result Luke Lefebure, Dorian Rumble and Tres Moore all ran their way onto the podium's top 3 posistions. Lefebure wasn't even regarded on the top runner on his team and broke through relative unknown status to cross the line with a gold. In the DMR Wade Endress came within 3 one hundreths of a second of pulling off a big upset win. Endress just missed nipping Will Kellar at the line for the victory as an Altoona team, known for its sprinting powerhouse, nearly walked away with gold in the distance medley relay.
In 2011, the 60m Dash presented us with another great upset run as defending state champion in the 100m Tyler Smith was surprised by TJ Elliot by 2 hundreths of a second to take the gold. Smith had run faster than anyone else in the semis by over a tenth of a second. In the 800m, defending state champion Luke Lefebure and a fresh group that included stud Kyle Moran and up and comer Hong Cho were all dropped by Wade Endress and a record setting performance on the double from a PR in the mile. Endress closed hard after an early fast pace by Moran and ran his way just under the state record that Mallon had set just two years before. In the 4x8 the upset came in a big way as CB West, who had yet to break 8 flat on the season, stunned the new state record holders of Abington by breaking Abington's record with a 7:45.06 wire to wire victory. Boyertown clocked a bit of an upset of their own when they surprised the DMR field taking second over highly praised West Chester Henderson, CR North and others.
All Favorites Isn't My Favorite
The state championships is always exciting because of the element of mystery involved. Who will capture the title? Who will be on their game for the big events? Where will the upsets be? The debates can rage on about who has the advantage in this event or this relay, how the doubling will come into effect, race strategy, you name it. It's a great time to blog and be the predicter for the big meets.
However, this year I COULD see a situation where there is a massive favorite in every single race.
Now before I get into this situation, I would like to just say I think this situation will almost definitely not happen, but technically speaking it is possible. Also I would like to say just because someone is the overwhelming favorite does not mean they will win. Plenty of guys who have been the favorite have lost in the past. Plus what I see as overwhelming favorites may not be your overwhelming favorites.
But for the sake of fun, let's say the following situation occurs.
The first final of the day is the 1 mile run. Drew is out with Mono at this point so he won't be in the race. Let's assume Dustin passes on the mile in order to pursue the 3k record. Thus, Ned Willig is even more the overwhelming favorite than he was prior to the start of the race. He has a 4:11 PR that is roughly 10 seconds faster than the rest of the field and his seed time of 4:15 is going to be roughly 7 seconds faster than the rest of the field. Plus he is the new state record holder in the 800m and has a great kick that he has used to win many races in the past. In this situation I think there is no denying Willig is an overwhelming favorite.
The next final is the 400m dash. Let's say Futch passes on running the 400m in favor of the 200m fresh and looking to win and then coming back to run key legs on both relays. This is the point where you kind of have to suspend your disbelief a little. This leaves Haneef Hardy and (1:19 600m) as the favorite. He came through that 6 in right around the state lead in the 400m. The field for the 400m is kind of soft right now. Only one guy under 50 seconds and that is just barely under. Hardy fresh in this field without Futch seems like he would have to be a heavy favorite. You can make some arguements for guys like Stiles, Daniel or Shisler, but I say Hardy is an overwhelming favorite in this case.
The next final is the 60m Hurdles. A race this short and this hurdley is extremely unpredictable. A lot can happen. But based on the information we know (we don't expect anyone to fall or false start or have a bad start) Chris Williams is the heavy favorite. Almost a full 2 tenths ahead of the rest of his field (which is led by teammate Wellington Zaza), Williams has been pretty dominate this year at the hurdles. He is the defending outdoor champion at the 110m hurdles as well. In this case we are assuming no Futch in the race which still leaves a great field (Hairston, Willet, Zaza) but ultimatley William's times and resume on paper make him a step above the field (.27 above Hairston, .31 above Willet, .5 for the rest) in experience and ability. His biggest is a guy he sees and competes with every day in practice, so he knows what he is up against. Williams has to be the overwhelming favorite in this race.
After the 60m Hurdles final, comes the dash. Again, with these races anything can happen. It's the nature of the beast. But TJ Elliot is the defending state champion in this race and his best time is from December. He and Shippen are the only guys under 7 seconds so far this year. Shippen has been good as well with a 6.99 PR but Elliot has been the best on the scene for almost 2 years now and has proven he can run the rounds he needs to win before. Although this may be considered a bit of a stretch, I think Elliot is the overwhelming favorite to win the 60m.
Next comes the 800m run. This field will be tricky in most situations, but under this situation Ned looks like the big favorite. First off his PR of 1:51.25 this season is miles ahead of the field. The second and third best guys in PA right now either have mono or have dropped this race in favor of a 400m state championship. That leaves the next best seed as Ryan Horgan (assuming he doesn't drop the 800m and just run the mile like I think he will) at 1:56.98 to WIllig's 1:51.25. You do the math. There are guys I like in this field a bunch, but I don't see any of them seriously challenging Willig. Especially if he gets to kick off a slow pace in the mile. He ran his 1:51 the day after a huge DMR anchor at Yale. I think Ned is an overwhelming favorite to take 800m gold.
In the 200m, on paper the race is pretty open, but I think a fresh Eric Futch can not be denied the gold medal in this race. He boasts a very fast 400m split and a 300m run, he has the state record in the 300m Hurdles and 400m Hurdles Outdoors in very fast times, and his seed time of 22.63 on a flat track will convert to 22.03 on a banked track making him the #2 seed time for the race and giving him an ideal lane. Shacor Hamilton of Cardinal O'Hara will have a time that converts to just under that of Futch's. Hamilton could challenge here, and Patton and Whitmore have run some solid times thus far, but those times came on banked or oversized tracks. The tight turns of Lehigh do not favor a 200m time like 22.63. Futch's time also comes from December and things indicate he is much fitter now than he was then. He has TJ Elliot also to worry about this race, but I can't imagine many situations where Futch goes down when he is fresh against this field, therefore making him an overwhelming favorite in the event.
In the 3k, a fresh Dustin Wilson vs a field of guys with solid PRs but have never had a serious run at an indoor title before looks like the easiest race to call of the meet. Wilson is on a war path right now and dropped an 8:49 a long time ago. Aziz is his biggest competition and Wilson has run circles around this guy for a while now. I'm not saying Aziz can't win, but there is no reason in the world to think a fresh Dustin Wilson is worried about losing this race. He's worried about the record. Wilson is probably the biggest overwhelming favorite of the bunch at this spot.
Now onto the relays. In the 4x200m, Pennwood has the fastest seed time and the best anchor. He's relatively fresh if he passed on the 4 and the other two legs not named Stiles we will say are completely fresh. I really like Strath Haven in this race, but they will have some doubling pieces and tired legs going against a team that is just faster like Pennwood. It's a close field and team's may surprise, but the past 3 years or so the team that won had a clutch anchor who ran down the leaders (Gehret, Gilmore, Gilmore) and sealed state gold. It seems like the same fate has been handed down to Futch. Again this may be a stretch, but I call Pennwood the overwhelming favorites in the 4x2.
In the 4x8, let's take on the assumption Strath Haven has doubled their guys and Penncrest is completely fresh. LaSalle, Great Valley and North Penn have opted for the DMR. This leaves Penncrest as the favorite. A fresh squad that has a relay best 7 seconds better than anybody else (although Strath Haven may beat that by Saturday). Haven, their biggest competition, will have 2-3 legs on the double in the relay (I don't think Daniel runs on their 4x8) and those legs are guys who run fast 800s off strength more so than speed so doubling should be a bit of an issue. After Strath Haven, Cardinal O'Hara (who ran two 4x8s under 8:15 at the same meet which was crazy and has been left out of here a little too much by yours truly) is probably the biggest threat with Pennridge and Penn Hills also in the coversation. O'Hara will be seeded at most likely 8:12 going into this race. That's 17 seconds slower than Penncrest. Not too mention the fact that if O'Hara qualifies guys in the 3k they will certainly opt for that over the relay (not that they don't have depth obviously) and they need their top guys on par to beat Penncrest. Penn Hills will be doubling Baily and Squirees and Pennridge is also seeded well behind their competitors (about 17 seconds) and doesn't show signs of having the potential to run under 8 flat at this point. Penncrest would have to really choke to lose this race or somebody would have to pull a CB West to win. But there are no CB West's in this race. I picked CB West to win a year ago (and the year before that too actually) so I understood then that they had potential. No one returns 3 form a 7:44 effort outdoors and no one has run 8 flat on Glenn Mill's track. So yes, Penncrst is the overwhelming favorite.
In the DMR things are at their trickiest. I'm assuming that LaSalle has left a completely fresh squad waiting all day for this race. But, North Penn will be ready to go for this race and they are the defending upset state champions in XC so you can never really count them out. I really like LaSalle in this race, they are fresh, they have probably the best lead off leg and one of the top 2-3 anchors as well. Taking a look at the competion, Willig is tripling at this point and would need to pull out something crazy to carry this relay to a victory over a fresh LaSalle. So they are out. The Prep has had a tough time hitting their early season potential and Horgan is on the double at this point at least. So they are out. Henderson has got a young anchor in Tony Russell. I can't see that ending well. Take a look at the Baldwin DMR from a couple years back. Besides, in flats on a flat track LaSalle ran 10:37 to Henderson's 10:35 in spikes on a bank track (admittedly not ideal order for them). North Penn and Henderson are both quite good teams so I think this is the biggest stretch I will make all day and I definitely pulled something. So work with me here. To make this situation more reasonable for LaSalle to be the overwhelming favorite let's say North Penn and Henderson double their guys just like the Prep and Great Valley. This leaves a fresh LaSalle team as the overwhelming favorites over a tired field.
And finally we have the 4x4. Pennwood boasts a 3:17 #2 PA AT 4x4. Futch is the anchor. The next fastest team ran 8 seconds slower on a banked track. The team's around Pennwood will either be doubling and tripling guys just like Pennwood or have no dynamic anchor leg. Pennwood has two guys who have ran faster than anybody else on any of these relays at this point (I'm assuming no one else in the state has dipped in the 48s in a split, otherwise I would have heard about it) and they have the big race experience and excellent PRs across the board to make them easily an overwhelming favorite in this field.
So there you have it folks. A bland state meet of sorts. Obviously you have to suspend your disbelief here and take the word overwhelming in a bit of a different context at times, but I just thought it was interesting. Enjoy your day.
-train
However, this year I COULD see a situation where there is a massive favorite in every single race.
Now before I get into this situation, I would like to just say I think this situation will almost definitely not happen, but technically speaking it is possible. Also I would like to say just because someone is the overwhelming favorite does not mean they will win. Plenty of guys who have been the favorite have lost in the past. Plus what I see as overwhelming favorites may not be your overwhelming favorites.
But for the sake of fun, let's say the following situation occurs.
The first final of the day is the 1 mile run. Drew is out with Mono at this point so he won't be in the race. Let's assume Dustin passes on the mile in order to pursue the 3k record. Thus, Ned Willig is even more the overwhelming favorite than he was prior to the start of the race. He has a 4:11 PR that is roughly 10 seconds faster than the rest of the field and his seed time of 4:15 is going to be roughly 7 seconds faster than the rest of the field. Plus he is the new state record holder in the 800m and has a great kick that he has used to win many races in the past. In this situation I think there is no denying Willig is an overwhelming favorite.
The next final is the 400m dash. Let's say Futch passes on running the 400m in favor of the 200m fresh and looking to win and then coming back to run key legs on both relays. This is the point where you kind of have to suspend your disbelief a little. This leaves Haneef Hardy and (1:19 600m) as the favorite. He came through that 6 in right around the state lead in the 400m. The field for the 400m is kind of soft right now. Only one guy under 50 seconds and that is just barely under. Hardy fresh in this field without Futch seems like he would have to be a heavy favorite. You can make some arguements for guys like Stiles, Daniel or Shisler, but I say Hardy is an overwhelming favorite in this case.
The next final is the 60m Hurdles. A race this short and this hurdley is extremely unpredictable. A lot can happen. But based on the information we know (we don't expect anyone to fall or false start or have a bad start) Chris Williams is the heavy favorite. Almost a full 2 tenths ahead of the rest of his field (which is led by teammate Wellington Zaza), Williams has been pretty dominate this year at the hurdles. He is the defending outdoor champion at the 110m hurdles as well. In this case we are assuming no Futch in the race which still leaves a great field (Hairston, Willet, Zaza) but ultimatley William's times and resume on paper make him a step above the field (.27 above Hairston, .31 above Willet, .5 for the rest) in experience and ability. His biggest is a guy he sees and competes with every day in practice, so he knows what he is up against. Williams has to be the overwhelming favorite in this race.
After the 60m Hurdles final, comes the dash. Again, with these races anything can happen. It's the nature of the beast. But TJ Elliot is the defending state champion in this race and his best time is from December. He and Shippen are the only guys under 7 seconds so far this year. Shippen has been good as well with a 6.99 PR but Elliot has been the best on the scene for almost 2 years now and has proven he can run the rounds he needs to win before. Although this may be considered a bit of a stretch, I think Elliot is the overwhelming favorite to win the 60m.
Next comes the 800m run. This field will be tricky in most situations, but under this situation Ned looks like the big favorite. First off his PR of 1:51.25 this season is miles ahead of the field. The second and third best guys in PA right now either have mono or have dropped this race in favor of a 400m state championship. That leaves the next best seed as Ryan Horgan (assuming he doesn't drop the 800m and just run the mile like I think he will) at 1:56.98 to WIllig's 1:51.25. You do the math. There are guys I like in this field a bunch, but I don't see any of them seriously challenging Willig. Especially if he gets to kick off a slow pace in the mile. He ran his 1:51 the day after a huge DMR anchor at Yale. I think Ned is an overwhelming favorite to take 800m gold.
In the 200m, on paper the race is pretty open, but I think a fresh Eric Futch can not be denied the gold medal in this race. He boasts a very fast 400m split and a 300m run, he has the state record in the 300m Hurdles and 400m Hurdles Outdoors in very fast times, and his seed time of 22.63 on a flat track will convert to 22.03 on a banked track making him the #2 seed time for the race and giving him an ideal lane. Shacor Hamilton of Cardinal O'Hara will have a time that converts to just under that of Futch's. Hamilton could challenge here, and Patton and Whitmore have run some solid times thus far, but those times came on banked or oversized tracks. The tight turns of Lehigh do not favor a 200m time like 22.63. Futch's time also comes from December and things indicate he is much fitter now than he was then. He has TJ Elliot also to worry about this race, but I can't imagine many situations where Futch goes down when he is fresh against this field, therefore making him an overwhelming favorite in the event.
In the 3k, a fresh Dustin Wilson vs a field of guys with solid PRs but have never had a serious run at an indoor title before looks like the easiest race to call of the meet. Wilson is on a war path right now and dropped an 8:49 a long time ago. Aziz is his biggest competition and Wilson has run circles around this guy for a while now. I'm not saying Aziz can't win, but there is no reason in the world to think a fresh Dustin Wilson is worried about losing this race. He's worried about the record. Wilson is probably the biggest overwhelming favorite of the bunch at this spot.
Now onto the relays. In the 4x200m, Pennwood has the fastest seed time and the best anchor. He's relatively fresh if he passed on the 4 and the other two legs not named Stiles we will say are completely fresh. I really like Strath Haven in this race, but they will have some doubling pieces and tired legs going against a team that is just faster like Pennwood. It's a close field and team's may surprise, but the past 3 years or so the team that won had a clutch anchor who ran down the leaders (Gehret, Gilmore, Gilmore) and sealed state gold. It seems like the same fate has been handed down to Futch. Again this may be a stretch, but I call Pennwood the overwhelming favorites in the 4x2.
In the 4x8, let's take on the assumption Strath Haven has doubled their guys and Penncrest is completely fresh. LaSalle, Great Valley and North Penn have opted for the DMR. This leaves Penncrest as the favorite. A fresh squad that has a relay best 7 seconds better than anybody else (although Strath Haven may beat that by Saturday). Haven, their biggest competition, will have 2-3 legs on the double in the relay (I don't think Daniel runs on their 4x8) and those legs are guys who run fast 800s off strength more so than speed so doubling should be a bit of an issue. After Strath Haven, Cardinal O'Hara (who ran two 4x8s under 8:15 at the same meet which was crazy and has been left out of here a little too much by yours truly) is probably the biggest threat with Pennridge and Penn Hills also in the coversation. O'Hara will be seeded at most likely 8:12 going into this race. That's 17 seconds slower than Penncrest. Not too mention the fact that if O'Hara qualifies guys in the 3k they will certainly opt for that over the relay (not that they don't have depth obviously) and they need their top guys on par to beat Penncrest. Penn Hills will be doubling Baily and Squirees and Pennridge is also seeded well behind their competitors (about 17 seconds) and doesn't show signs of having the potential to run under 8 flat at this point. Penncrest would have to really choke to lose this race or somebody would have to pull a CB West to win. But there are no CB West's in this race. I picked CB West to win a year ago (and the year before that too actually) so I understood then that they had potential. No one returns 3 form a 7:44 effort outdoors and no one has run 8 flat on Glenn Mill's track. So yes, Penncrst is the overwhelming favorite.
In the DMR things are at their trickiest. I'm assuming that LaSalle has left a completely fresh squad waiting all day for this race. But, North Penn will be ready to go for this race and they are the defending upset state champions in XC so you can never really count them out. I really like LaSalle in this race, they are fresh, they have probably the best lead off leg and one of the top 2-3 anchors as well. Taking a look at the competion, Willig is tripling at this point and would need to pull out something crazy to carry this relay to a victory over a fresh LaSalle. So they are out. The Prep has had a tough time hitting their early season potential and Horgan is on the double at this point at least. So they are out. Henderson has got a young anchor in Tony Russell. I can't see that ending well. Take a look at the Baldwin DMR from a couple years back. Besides, in flats on a flat track LaSalle ran 10:37 to Henderson's 10:35 in spikes on a bank track (admittedly not ideal order for them). North Penn and Henderson are both quite good teams so I think this is the biggest stretch I will make all day and I definitely pulled something. So work with me here. To make this situation more reasonable for LaSalle to be the overwhelming favorite let's say North Penn and Henderson double their guys just like the Prep and Great Valley. This leaves a fresh LaSalle team as the overwhelming favorites over a tired field.
And finally we have the 4x4. Pennwood boasts a 3:17 #2 PA AT 4x4. Futch is the anchor. The next fastest team ran 8 seconds slower on a banked track. The team's around Pennwood will either be doubling and tripling guys just like Pennwood or have no dynamic anchor leg. Pennwood has two guys who have ran faster than anybody else on any of these relays at this point (I'm assuming no one else in the state has dipped in the 48s in a split, otherwise I would have heard about it) and they have the big race experience and excellent PRs across the board to make them easily an overwhelming favorite in this field.
So there you have it folks. A bland state meet of sorts. Obviously you have to suspend your disbelief here and take the word overwhelming in a bit of a different context at times, but I just thought it was interesting. Enjoy your day.
-train
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