4x800m

Alright so I'm trying to knock all of these out now, we shall see how it goes. This one will probably take way too long and I won't get to the DMR until tomorrow, so I guess we will just have to wait it out a little bit.

When it comes to the relays at indoor states I have always been a fan of picking fresh bodies to win over tired legs. That's why I picked the boys from CB West each of the past two years (once it worked, once it didn't) to beat Abington in the 4x8. So this gives me two relays out front that are both completely fresh and both on great hot streaks. And both also start with Penn. That would of course be Penncrest and Pennridge. I was really tempted to go upset here and pick Pennridge to win but I thought better of it. This race should be pretty awesome out front if all unfolds well. This race went from what I thought would be quiet the down heat, to a potentially great showdown. Maybe not super fast times (although it is possible, I just doubt it) but definitely quite an anchor leg race.

So I ultimately decided Penncrest was the best pick here for the win. #2 seed, 4 fresh legs, balanced attack, good potential here. I think Emmanuel could have a big breakout race and open things up during his leg to makes things interesting. I don't know which leg he runs, but his leg will be most important without a doubt. For Strath Haven I still have them second, barely over Pennridge. It pains me to do this because I am really in love with the Pennridge 4x8 right now, but I can't pull myself away from Strath Haven's PA #1 time and the fact that Seelaus will be fresh which I wasn't previously expecting. I think Huemmler will barely hold of Logue at the finish in a tight group.

And this left LaSalle for 4th! Obviously I'm going to look very stupid if LaSalle takes down the gold, but this young squad in my mind has next year for gold and they are not ready to take down the title just yet. A doubling Coyle and Stone, the teams two power legs, could be costly. They had a 2:05 leg last time out which I expect to drop, but that's a big liability for those guys at the end. And if Coyle and Stone have taken down top 3 finishes each like expected, there will be a little less fire in them at the end of the race. Obviously I think they will be right there in that pack, but I think the Penn's fresh legs will hold them off. Strath Haven too I guess. Ugh this was a tough pick to me.

At 5th it was kind of almost a default pick here with North Penn. They have a couple guys doubling so I don't think they can win but between Trimble, MacCauley and the other guys I have seen run some solid times open, they should be down around 8 flat or under which will put them in 5th place fairly easily, but also should leave them out of contention for the win.

I'm a big DT West fan, been on the bandwagon for a while now, and although I don't like the doubling by Leidel, I think this team can put together a surprising finish at states. There is also potential here for me to eat my words (CB West looked pretty sharp last weekend), but I hope that my gut instinct is correct. Jenkins is kind of a sleeper pick to run a solid anchor leg and help this team cross the finish line with a medal. Still think they were built more for a DMR.

I have CB West at 7th behind some quality running by Nico Metzler and company. Really on the Metzler bandwagon and I hope he has a big day. CB West couldn't have lost everything from a team that set the state record last year. I mean technically they lost everything, but when you are that good out front the JV guys would be A team guys most anywhere else.

Not feeling O'Hara, maybe they can run fast without those 3k guys, but I'm not sure I'm buying in right now. Potential, again, for me to take a fork and get fat from eating my words.

Last medal spot I having going to Penn Hills. Two great legs. But they are on the double. Is that enough to earn the team a medal? It's enough to make me think they have too much potential not to throw them on the list.


Now here is my brief little problem statement that I have to make before putting up the final times. I anticipate 2 heats divided so that top 9 are in the fast section, the second 9 in the low section (putting the cut off at Connor Harriman, just kidding I'm hilarious, but seriously the cut off is at DT West). That helps DT West's cause and makes me think they can medal. If they are in the slow heat I think they are just as capable, but it's hard to say for sure what will be going through this squads head.

Any who I don't see O'Hara or Lower Moreland making enough noise out of the fast heat to hold off whichever kids win the slow section. I've got Penn Hills but rumor has it Chambersburg is going to be in that mix. Paul Robeson maybe will surprise out of that group, they've got some pieces. And hey when did Abington get in there? You never know with a school like that.

My top 8 teams with time projections (while I was writing this I decided I changed my mind, screw it I'm going for it):
1. Penncrest 7:52
2. Pennridge 7:53
3. LaSalle 7:54
4. Strath Haven 7:55
5. North Penn 7:59
6. CB West 8:01
7. DT West 8:05
8. Penn Hills 8:08