New States Standards: 3k

First off all I just want to say I'm really pumped to see a bunch of new posters joining up on track talk. Already some solid discussion there and I'm really hoping we can keep that going and get a really solid forum going. Not to beat a dead horse, but if you know penntrack posters who are frustrated with the lack of action on penntrack just send 'em over. Word.

Now on to what I actually wanted to talk about today which is the new ptfca rule they make basically every year where they are concerned about how many people have hit the time/standard for all the different events and are going to now try and fill the field with the next few fastest times. This really is only going to effect two things in terms of the track: the 3k, the 4x8 and the DMR.

So let's take a look see at what this means in the 3k. First off let me just say that last year they had 13 guys who ran in the 3k (all hit the standard) and this was run in just one heat. The previous year a field of 21 was run in two different sections. Therefore, my expectation for a "full field" in this race is about 10-12 runners.

Now obviously not everyone in the top 10-12 in the state are going to choose to run the 3k at states and additionally, runners will try and hit the SQS this weekend and if the field hits a total of 9 or more runners I don't think they will add to the field. One year they even ran a field of just 8 runners (I think it was 2007). So keep that in mind as I go on. Guys like Steiner and Mountain and Replogle as well as maybe some TFCAofGP guys will probably shoot for the time this coming weekend and are more than capable of hitting it.

But looking at the situation as it stands right now, here is what I see. On the men's side 10 have hit the SQS. Dustin Wilson is the #1 ranked and I would be utterly stunned if he doesn't race the 3k at states. Hibbs at #3 and Shearn at #4 would also be big surprises. Hibbs ran a fast mile this past weekend, but that should only indicate he is in great 3k shape, not a sharp change to the mile at states. He does have a solid DMR he can double back on, but I see it as Ryan Gil like situation from a year ago and he will almost certainly double with the 3k. Savage, Kuchta and Nissley should also all punch their tickets into states for the 3k. Savage and Kuchta each have border line DMR teams, but I don't expect either to make it, and even if their teams did, I think they would still have the chance to run the open 3k and double or (in O'Hara's case) be replaced by some other pieces originally not on the relay. This gives a field of 6 so far.

I'd be pretty shocked to see either Coyle or MacCauley entered in this race given their relay hype. If they were going to choose an event to double back from, it would not be the 3k (the mile in both cases would be the obvious choice). Willig is essentially a lock to not run the 3k. He has enough on his plate right now to be thinking of hopping into the 3k. Aziz is tough call here. I think GFS believes they have a good DMR (because they do) but Aziz in the 3k would really hurt their shots of placing high in a deep field (expected to be a deep field anyway). That being said Aziz may not even be a leg on this relay if GFS has some unforseen depth. GFS has managed to pull out a lot of surprising state medals (including when they ran a B squad without their 3 best runners) so maybe Aziz isn't a piece of this team's A squad. Even if he is, I think odds are he will be in the 3k at states. So the field is up to 7 now.

7 is just enough so that if anyone hits the SQS this weekend and wants to run the event at states, they may not add to the field. That being said, let's see who else is in the ball park of states time.
Ryan DeBarbarie 9:00.27 F
Mac Emery 9:01.92 F
Logan Steiner 9:03.53 B
Francis Ferruzzi 9:05.11 F
Ernie Pitone 9:05.49 F
Ethan Martin 9:05.59 B
Brett Kelly 9:05.83 F
Caleb Wakeley 9:06.40 B
Dan Davis 9:06.58 B
Mike Bilotta 9:07.36 F
Zach Israel 9:07.68 F

Now I expect Steiner, Pitone, Martin, Wakeley, Davis, Bilotta and Israel to go after this mark this coming weekend along with some other guys I mentioned above who may be able to hit the time but are not farther up on the list. Bilotta and Steiner did both just run very solid qualifying times in the mile this past weekend and both may have relays (O'Hara's 8:12's legs is very much up in the air) with medal aspirations. Steiner ran a great mile and his NA DMR has to be a big sleeper team in this whole race for the win. Him running the 3k at states would really hurt their chances. I expect him to not run the 3k come states unless he drops a low 8:50s time this weekend, then he will have a tough choice. Emery and Isreal are interesting to consider as well. Both have a potential top 5 DMR come states, but both are also replacable. Emery has Zingarini and Felt who can run the 16 and 12 respectively, and if they are deep enough at 800, Emery would be free to try and compete for a medal in the 3k. Israel has Kardish and Horgan who both are good enough to run the 12 and the 16, so depending on their other 800 guys, they also could replace Israel. That being said I don't see either of those guys opting for the 3k at states.

So what does this mean? Well my top guys on time right now are therefore:
1. Wilson
2. Aziz
3. Hibbs
4. Shearn
5. Savage
6. Kuchta
7. Nissley
8. DeBarbarie
9. Wakeley
10. Ferruzzi
11. Pitone
12. Mountain

I think Wakeley drops a pretty nice time that's not quite SQS that moves him the list. Pitone doesn't drop a faster than 3k than the previous weekend, Mountain doesn't quite run fast enough to edge out the other guys on the list. No one else chooses to enter the 3k that is ranked higher than these guys.

I think they cap the field at 10 and the top 10 guys on that list get in.

It's pretty speculative at this point, but this is my prediction. Only one more weekend to find out.

Enjoy.