All Favorites Isn't My Favorite

The state championships is always exciting because of the element of mystery involved. Who will capture the title? Who will be on their game for the big events? Where will the upsets be? The debates can rage on about who has the advantage in this event or this relay, how the doubling will come into effect, race strategy, you name it. It's a great time to blog and be the predicter for the big meets.

However, this year I COULD see a situation where there is a massive favorite in every single race.

Now before I get into this situation, I would like to just say I think this situation will almost definitely not happen, but technically speaking it is possible. Also I would like to say just because someone is the overwhelming favorite does not mean they will win. Plenty of guys who have been the favorite have lost in the past. Plus what I see as overwhelming favorites may not be your overwhelming favorites.

But for the sake of fun, let's say the following situation occurs.

The first final of the day is the 1 mile run. Drew is out with Mono at this point so he won't be in the race. Let's assume Dustin passes on the mile in order to pursue the 3k record. Thus, Ned Willig is even more the overwhelming favorite than he was prior to the start of the race. He has a 4:11 PR that is roughly 10 seconds faster than the rest of the field and his seed time of 4:15 is going to be roughly 7 seconds faster than the rest of the field. Plus he is the new state record holder in the 800m and has a great kick that he has used to win many races in the past. In this situation I think there is no denying Willig is an overwhelming favorite.

The next final is the 400m dash. Let's say Futch passes on running the 400m in favor of the 200m fresh and looking to win and then coming back to run key legs on both relays. This is the point where you kind of have to suspend your disbelief a little. This leaves Haneef Hardy and (1:19 600m) as the favorite. He came through that 6 in right around the state lead in the 400m. The field for the 400m is kind of soft right now. Only one guy under 50 seconds and that is just barely under. Hardy fresh in this field without Futch seems like he would have to be a heavy favorite. You can make some arguements for guys like Stiles, Daniel or Shisler, but I say Hardy is an overwhelming favorite in this case.

The next final is the 60m Hurdles. A race this short and this hurdley is extremely unpredictable. A lot can happen. But based on the information we know (we don't expect anyone to fall or false start or have a bad start) Chris Williams is the heavy favorite. Almost a full 2 tenths ahead of the rest of his field (which is led by teammate Wellington Zaza), Williams has been pretty dominate this year at the hurdles. He is the defending outdoor champion at the 110m hurdles as well. In this case we are assuming no Futch in the race which still leaves a great field (Hairston, Willet, Zaza) but ultimatley William's times and resume on paper make him a step above the field (.27 above Hairston, .31 above Willet, .5 for the rest) in experience and ability. His biggest is a guy he sees and competes with every day in practice, so he knows what he is up against. Williams has to be the overwhelming favorite in this race.

After the 60m Hurdles final, comes the dash. Again, with these races anything can happen. It's the nature of the beast. But TJ Elliot is the defending state champion in this race and his best time is from December. He and Shippen are the only guys under 7 seconds so far this year. Shippen has been good as well with a 6.99 PR but Elliot has been the best on the scene for almost 2 years now and has proven he can run the rounds he needs to win before. Although this may be considered a bit of a stretch, I think Elliot is the overwhelming favorite to win the 60m.

Next comes the 800m run. This field will be tricky in most situations, but under this situation Ned looks like the big favorite. First off his PR of 1:51.25 this season is miles ahead of the field. The second and third best guys in PA right now either have mono or have dropped this race in favor of a 400m state championship. That leaves the next best seed as Ryan Horgan (assuming he doesn't drop the 800m and just run the mile like I think he will) at 1:56.98 to WIllig's 1:51.25. You do the math. There are guys I like in this field a bunch, but I don't see any of them seriously challenging Willig. Especially if he gets to kick off a slow pace in the mile. He ran his 1:51 the day after a huge DMR anchor at Yale. I think Ned is an overwhelming favorite to take 800m gold.

In the 200m, on paper the race is pretty open, but I think a fresh Eric Futch can not be denied the gold medal in this race. He boasts a very fast 400m split and a 300m run, he has the state record in the 300m Hurdles and 400m Hurdles Outdoors in very fast times, and his seed time of 22.63 on a flat track will convert to 22.03 on a banked track making him the #2 seed time for the race and giving him an ideal lane. Shacor Hamilton of Cardinal O'Hara will have a time that converts to just under that of Futch's. Hamilton could challenge here, and Patton and Whitmore have run some solid times thus far, but those times came on banked or oversized tracks. The tight turns of Lehigh do not favor a 200m time like 22.63. Futch's time also comes from December and things indicate he is much fitter now than he was then. He has TJ Elliot also to worry about this race, but I can't imagine many situations where Futch goes down when he is fresh against this field, therefore making him an overwhelming favorite in the event.

In the 3k, a fresh Dustin Wilson vs a field of guys with solid PRs but have never had a serious run at an indoor title before looks like the easiest race to call of the meet. Wilson is on a war path right now and dropped an 8:49 a long time ago. Aziz is his biggest competition and Wilson has run circles around this guy for a while now. I'm not saying Aziz can't win, but there is no reason in the world to think a fresh Dustin Wilson is worried about losing this race. He's worried about the record. Wilson is probably the biggest overwhelming favorite of the bunch at this spot.

Now onto the relays. In the 4x200m, Pennwood has the fastest seed time and the best anchor. He's relatively fresh if he passed on the 4 and the other two legs not named Stiles we will say are completely fresh. I really like Strath Haven in this race, but they will have some doubling pieces and tired legs going against a team that is just faster like Pennwood. It's a close field and team's may surprise, but the past 3 years or so the team that won had a clutch anchor who ran down the leaders (Gehret, Gilmore, Gilmore) and sealed state gold. It seems like the same fate has been handed down to Futch. Again this may be a stretch, but I call Pennwood the overwhelming favorites in the 4x2.

In the 4x8, let's take on the assumption Strath Haven has doubled their guys and Penncrest is completely fresh. LaSalle, Great Valley and North Penn have opted for the DMR. This leaves Penncrest as the favorite. A fresh squad that has a relay best 7 seconds better than anybody else (although Strath Haven may beat that by Saturday). Haven, their biggest competition, will have 2-3 legs on the double in the relay (I don't think Daniel runs on their 4x8) and those legs are guys who run fast 800s off strength more so than speed so doubling should be a bit of an issue. After Strath Haven, Cardinal O'Hara (who ran two 4x8s under 8:15 at the same meet which was crazy and has been left out of here a little too much by yours truly) is probably the biggest threat with Pennridge and Penn Hills also in the coversation. O'Hara will be seeded at most likely 8:12 going into this race. That's 17 seconds slower than Penncrest. Not too mention the fact that if O'Hara qualifies guys in the 3k they will certainly opt for that over the relay (not that they don't have depth obviously) and they need their top guys on par to beat Penncrest. Penn Hills will be doubling Baily and Squirees and Pennridge is also seeded well behind their competitors (about 17 seconds) and doesn't show signs of having the potential to run under 8 flat at this point. Penncrest would have to really choke to lose this race or somebody would have to pull a CB West to win. But there are no CB West's in this race. I picked CB West to win a year ago (and the year before that too actually) so I understood then that they had potential. No one returns 3 form a 7:44 effort outdoors and no one has run 8 flat on Glenn Mill's track. So yes, Penncrst is the overwhelming favorite.

In the DMR things are at their trickiest. I'm assuming that LaSalle has left a completely fresh squad waiting all day for this race. But, North Penn will be ready to go for this race and they are the defending upset state champions in XC so you can never really count them out. I really like LaSalle in this race, they are fresh, they have probably the best lead off leg and one of the top 2-3 anchors as well. Taking a look at the competion, Willig is tripling at this point and would need to pull out something crazy to carry this relay to a victory over a fresh LaSalle. So they are out. The Prep has had a tough time hitting their early season potential and Horgan is on the double at this point at least. So they are out. Henderson has got a young anchor in Tony Russell. I can't see that ending well. Take a look at the Baldwin DMR from a couple years back. Besides, in flats on a flat track LaSalle ran 10:37 to Henderson's 10:35 in spikes on a bank track (admittedly not ideal order for them). North Penn and Henderson are both quite good teams so I think this is the biggest stretch I will make all day and I definitely pulled something. So work with me here. To make this situation more reasonable for LaSalle to be the overwhelming favorite let's say North Penn and Henderson double their guys just like the Prep and Great Valley. This leaves a fresh LaSalle team as the overwhelming favorites over a tired field.

And finally we have the 4x4. Pennwood boasts a 3:17 #2 PA AT 4x4. Futch is the anchor. The next fastest team ran 8 seconds slower on a banked track. The team's around Pennwood will either be doubling and tripling guys just like Pennwood or have no dynamic anchor leg. Pennwood has two guys who have ran faster than anybody else on any of these relays at this point (I'm assuming no one else in the state has dipped in the 48s in a split, otherwise I would have heard about it) and they have the big race experience and excellent PRs across the board to make them easily an overwhelming favorite in this field.

So there you have it folks. A bland state meet of sorts. Obviously you have to suspend your disbelief here and take the word overwhelming in a bit of a different context at times, but I just thought it was interesting. Enjoy your day.

-train