A Little More In Depth

So let's talk more in depth now as I narrow down the events to my specialty and what I have been following all season. We will start of course with the mile. First off, right off the bat my predictions could be off based on the number of people they put in each heat. This may end up being a 3 heat race with 29 entries like that. In 2009 they had 28 entries in the mile and ended up running two heats (something like 12 and 16) but that being said a few guys scratched and they only ended up with 26 (25 finished, Hobart fell). So I can't guarantee 2 sections, but for the sake of my predictions I will anticipate 2 sections of the boys mile with 16 in the first and 13 in the section. Perhaps a little bold but we shall see. This means I draw my line at Connor Harriman (great news for him because he is right around my cut off for medals as well).

This race was a tough one for me to pick out of the medalists. I don't see anyone from the slow heat reaching up to grab a medal, but there are potential sleepers in this heat. Both CR North kids Felt and Zingarini are sleepers here even if they haven't posted unbelievable times both have been solid contributors to a well balanced DMR. Zingarini came on very strong down the stretch in XC through to states so he may be in for another surprise high finish this race. He, along with Chaborek, Yannocane (getting a lot of talk recently), Burke and Todaro should be the guys to mix it up at the front of this group. I have Todaro pulling out the win in the heat, closely followed by Chaborek, Zingarini, Burke and then Felt. Probably in the mid 4:20s like this heat is won in most years. Somebody will drop a fairly sizeable season best out of this group.

In the fast heat, things get very interesting. You have the heavy favorite Willig out front and you have the young up and comers behind him. Obviously, this is Willig's race to lose and I don't anticipate the upset going down here. I think Willig runs out front from the gun and keeps the record at least in the back of his head. That being said, I don't know if he will have to do all the work to stay at record pace. A kid by the name of Tom Coyle has taken a lot of big steps towards state championship contention in the last few weeks, and he is not afraid of a fast pace early, he's a front runner even in XC despite his great closing speed. And of course there is Alex Moran and Dan Jaskowak from the TSTCA who are both accustomed to going for it from the gun. If Willig is out hard, I can't imagine this group just letting him go. They all want to win. And speaking of winners, one of the big winners early in the season was Jack Huemmler who won a lot of big races including Kevin Dare in the mile and has experience anchoring his 4x8 at the Millrose games in a pressure situation. Plus Brett Kelly has a knack for going out hard in races.

So all these names will be the guys to watch out front, but its hard to imagine a fast early pace not taking it out of some of these guys. I hate to say it but only one of these guys is in 4:15 shape based on their previous races and that's Ned. Coyle is probably the only other guy close. But I think the fast pace out front may catch up to Coyle and his state champion aspirations, leaving the door open for Moran to sneak by him for second. I see Jaskowak having the strength to mix it up and hold on for fourth (he has the most XC strength of the bunch and has a few nice mile wins on his resume, he deserves a bit more talk than he's been getting perhaps). After this things get very tricky.

I have MaCauley at 5th, he's my big sleeper pick here. I heard he split in the low 4:20s on the DQd North Penn DMR at Lehigh. North Penn rounds their guys into shape at the right time and MaCauley has been clutch before at the state meet. These guys will have some speed in their legs and MaCauley may be able to hang on and pick off some guys at the end with his XC strength.

Huemmler at 6 could easily be Huemmler at 2 the way he raced early in the season, but as of late the buzz around Strath Haven has kind of gone down, from early season DMR state champs to now a team champion race and a DMR that was underwhelming at MoC. He may surprise me with a big bounce back race, but right now I'm going with the guys with the hot hand.

Brett Kelly at 7. Eh. I'm really not too passionate about this pick, but the last two years at states he has come up with some big DMR carries to pull his team to surprising finishes. That gives me confidence in him for this race. But his recent performances haven't indicated to me that there isn't a strong chance he will go out hard and fall apart in a talented deep field. We will have to see.

Steiner gets the nod for the 8th here. He's a tough runner and will have the strength to hang on from a quick pace and maybe come back and pick some guys off on his way to the finish. It's hard to say for sure. He seems to be in better mile shape than most would have expected and Ryan Gil ran a pretty quick mile at this state meet before so this wouldn't be unprecedented out of the NA camp.

The guys falling in behind are even trickier still to predict. Harriman obviously has great potential here to run fast. He was the 10th place finisher at states this past fall and I think he may be in low 4:20s shape. Tony Russell is no slouch either, especially considering his mile time was on the double, but I'm still scared to pick a young sophomore who was underwhelming in his first state appearance in XC this past fall. I see a possible Wade Endress sophomore year esque performance. Which still means good things down the line. Tonzo and O'Such are both guys who could definitely surprise. I really like both as sleeper picks and would not be surprised if they sneak into the medal race.

O'Such was a big name at the season's half way point. I'd like to see him get back in that mix as a well known entity.

So overall my medalists with approximate times are:
1. Willig 4:14
2. Moran 4:18
3. Coyle 4:18
4. Jaskowak 4:20
5. MaCauley 4:21
6. Huemmler 4:21
7. Kelly 4:22
8. Steiner 4:22