A Little More More In Depth

So first off I wanted to say it looks like Penntrack is picking up a bit with the forums so if you are looking for a place other than this to talk states predictions that may not be a bad start. Also you can feel free to go on track talk, but we don't really have much going right now. I check everyday and I will be glad to jump in any convo over there. We got a few good posters on there already and hopefully we will add a few more in the near future.

But enough about that on to the predictions.

So in the 800 there are just 22 entries, which most likely indicates just 2 heats.

I'll assume the top heat features 10 guys and the first heat features the other 12, making the cut off once again at Connor Harriman.

So in the slow section, it is indeed likely that someone will surprise and sneak up to grab a medal. Every year somebody in one of the slow sections drops a 1:56 or so and surprises their way onto the medal stand seemingly out of nowhere. Last year it was guys like Craig Cassey who got the job done. This year it's hard to predict exactly who I think will do the job. Kunzweiler obviously has to be in the conversation as a state medalist in XC and a guy with a 1:56 PR, but he isn't exactly on a hot streak of late after the let down at Kevin Dare and the Carnival. He is still the guy to watch in my opinion because of his potential, but I don't see him on the medal stand. Zach Moon could be a factor. He ran his time all alone out front and might have been on the double? Can't remember if that was him or one of his teammates, but he is a sleeper pick in the race. Also Brooks may finally have a bounce back race, he is struggled a bit of late in the mile, but his race is clearly the 800 and his seed time is from way back in January.

Ultimately I'll take Moon to win the heat wtih Kunzweiler and Brooks following him with the Robeson kids also in the mix. None of these guys, unfortunately do I predict to be medalists when all is said and done.

On to the fast heat. No Ned Willig and a fresh Haneef Hardy make for an interesting field. Hardy has been beaten the last two weekends by Holder and Stiles, but he does have a 1:55 PR and a 1:19 blazing 600m. I'd imagine he and Horgan will be the guys doing the work out front. The Penn Hills guys won't be afraid to run out front either, and this thing should be fast from the gun. Stone and Holder will probably sit back a bit at the beginning and I think that will ultimately pay off when all is said and done. I see Holder holding off (yeah it's a pun) Stone over the final straightaway on the kick to take the title. I am a big fan of Stone, but something about Holder's added championship race experience I think will pay off. Both Penn Hills guys are favorites of mine in this race, especially Baily who I think will bounce back from a down week last week against his teammate. Horgan has had a lot of quality top finishes this season and he should be able to hang tough and pull out a top finish even if he can't hold off some of the kicks from the other top guys. 1:56.9 flat track is moving. Rivera and Dickson have the hot hand lately. They have been tearing it up and that is dangerous because Rivera is a 1:53 guy outdoors last season who came on at the right time just like he is this indoor season. Meanwhile Dickson has dropped a lot of time in the past few weeks going from around 2:04 to 2 flat to 1:59 (the next day after the 2 flat I believe) down to 1:58. CB South does pretty well with 800 guys and I think this is just another in the line of successes. So that leaves Hardy, Trimble and Harriman in the fast heat. Trimble was a guy I was super high on early in the year, but he hasn't had anything to impressive me in a while now and has had very few open results in general. He runs for North Penn and he's an 800 guy (was on my sleepers last year and performed well) so anything can happen, but I'm off the bandwagon this year. Hardy is kind of overrated in my mind. As overrated as a 1:55 and 1:19 can be I guess, considering he has posted some awesome times. But I just haven't seen a great race against the competition here in state, just the competition at the armory. This is a banked track so maybe he will benefit, but I feel its more likely these other kids finally catch up to him. And lastly Harriman is on the double so I don't see him doing much.

When all is said and done here's how I see the 800 finishers with projected times:
1. Holder 1:54.2
2. Stone 1:54.4
3. Horgan 1:54.7
4. Baily 1:55.3
5. Hardy 1:55.4
6. Rivera 1:55.8
7. Dickson 1:56.5
8. Squirees 1:56.7