So it's 3k time here at the blog and this post hopefully won't drag on longer than it needs to. Fresh Dustin Wilson against a field of guys who are solid place holders to finish around him. I don't even know if I have a Tom Trainer this year who I think will surprise and hold on for a while and make things interesting. Scratch that, I do. Sam Hibbs has really taken some big steps of late. He didn't have the finish to his XC season that many were expecting, but obviously he has come back fit and ready for action. He ran an 8:50ish a while ago and has run a few very nice miles on Lehigh's track for the win. Plus this guy came into the season as the top returner from states in the outdoor 3200 and XC so it's not like he's some breakout star.
But still this is Dustin's race to lose and I can't imagine him doing so. He should go out hard and be looking at possible record pace (the meet record is no joke, it's sub 9 pace) and then he will look to hold on. We shall see. Maybe he will race it strategically, but the guy hasn't dropped a bomb yet all season so I think it would be pretty surprising if he just hung in tough and waiting til 1k to go to show off his strength.
But this will be more than just a one man show. In O'Hara's case it will be a 3 man show with Savage, Bilotta and Pitone, the team's top 3 XC guys at states who all finished in the top 35. Savage has to be the guy to watch out of the group. Pitone and Bilotta have been busy running a lot of 3ks of late and Bilotta may struggle to run back to back quality 3k performances. I think these guys will get out hard, but I'm hoping not too hard. If Wilson is going out in 4:30, I think Savage and Bilotta would be really shooting themselves in the foot from a 4:35. But I think enough of the race will develop that they shouldn't have to do that and be competitive.
As we move on now to the boys from the TSTCA, Shearn, Kuchta and Martin. Gosh, these guys make me sigh dramatically. Let's start with Shearn who, as the defending state champion for AA XC obviously has gotten the most talk. He has had a couple nice 3k runs this season including his qualifying time and clearly in good shape to compete for a top 3 spot. BUT he is a bit more of a trials guy than a track guy, and may be getting overhyped from all the talk surrounding his big win. It's tough to pick this guy outside the top 5, but the big question is how high will he go? I have him slotted currently at 3rd but second is definitely a possiblity. Kuctha comes in with the fastest 3200m PR outside of Dustin Wilson. Pretty big number for a guy who is getting absolutely no love so far. He's gotta be a sleeper pick at states. Now he didn't race well last weekend, but I think that was just because of his doubling off the DMR effort. He has the potential to hit in the 8:40s and run great, but he also has the potential to do what a lot of Baldwin guys have done indoors and just come up a bit short. You look at Hobart, Degregorio and all their relays and they haven't quite clicked to take Gold or even Silver and Bronze indoors. Martin is a guy who I'm honestly not sure about. I can't imagine he'd be outside of that 8-13 range however based on the names around him.
So what to make of Sam Aziz? Well obviously GFS likes his chances if they are dropping him from the relay to let him run this 3k. He dropped one hot time in a 3200 and really that's all we have seen from the guy. He has potential (he was on my top 50 at the beginning of the XC season before I was told he wasn't running in the states) and he is one of the few people that Dustin Wilson can call "rivals" as they have faced off in a few match ups in the independent league. He comes from a school with lots of 3k prowess, but I think he had one great day and we may be making a bit too much out of it. I have decided, thus to proceed with caution.
So who's left? Brett Kelly on the double from the mile? Maybe a surprise here, but I'm expecting a blow up. DeBarbarbie and Ferruzzi the 3k for the third straight week? DeBarbarie looks like he is on the verge of a break out race, but he has just missed the 9 minute mark twice now. It seems like that may be his potential, and two all out races indicate that. As for Ferruzzi, I'm probably being a huge homer on this pick, but the kid ran 9:05 uncontested and then ran 9:06 doubling from the mile with no enthusiasm for the sport. He is super excited to be in (and super lucky, if I'm being honest he probably shouldn't be here in the first place) and sometimes those are the guys who surprise the other people who feel a little more entitled. He beat Bilotta earlier in the season at Burdette and he beat him at Glenn Mills in the mile, and Bilotta is the 2 seed. Just confirming the thought that anything can happen in this 3k. Lastly, Nissley ran a great time earlier in the season, but I haven't seen anything from him since. Could run great once again at this track, or could be a non factor. I figure probably somewhere in between and somewhere around that 8:58 time once again.
So here's my projected medalists and projected times:
1. Wilson 8:26
2. Hibbs 8:38
3. Shearn 8:42
4. Aziz 8:47
5. Savage 8:51
6. Kuchta 8:52
7. Bilotta 8:55
8. Ferruzzi 8:57
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