Last In Depth

Let's see if I have a change of heart again at the end of this post. I think I'm more confident in these predictions than my other ones. But I kind of agonize over this stuff, so no guarantees.

First off I want to say this race has opened up for Great Valley to win. The other top teams all dropped into the 4x8 and none of their other top rivals have decided to run a relay that is fresher than Great Valley's besides Altoona. Everybody else has at least one guy doubling if not more.

Altoona's time last weekend kind of came from nowhere, and although they have had DMR success before, I'm not sure I'm confident in Replogle to take down Willig in the anchor leg. I hope Great Valley isn't planning anything fancy with their order. I do like Altoona and I understand their value as an upset pick here in predictions, but I can't quite bring myself to do it.

Henderson has some pieces. Their DMR was ran without even their best pieces in the right places. Russell has sub 4:20 potential on the anchor if he were to run it fresh (which he's not) and Chaborek could be the best lead off leg in the race if he's fresh (which he's not). So Henderson falls to second on my board without the fresh legs they need in my opinion to hold off a late charge from Willig and co.

It's just like when I picked CB West two years in a row. The second time it worked out. Hopefully same thing happens here.

But the rest of the race should be interesting too. A fresh CR North could have really made noise here, I'm on the Felt and Zingarini bandwagon as I have said in other posts before, but I don't know if a doubling group like this is in 10:30ish shape and so they slip down the board.

Aziz running the 3k and Wistar not running the mile, makes me think GFS has some tricks up their sleeve for this DMR. I think they think they can run equally fast without Aziz so there are obviously some other pieces here. Unfortunately, I can't see them, and I can't imagine things panning out amazingly well for the squad. But as always they will be a factor to contend with in the race.

North Allegheny may have been my pick for the win if they had a fresh squad on the track, but I have since dropped them well down the list. I still see them in the 10:30s at the meet because I think Tonzo and Steiner are both top notch relay legs, but the doubling scares me a bit. Plus the WPIAL has struggled to grab top notch hardware in the DMR at states. Penn Hills, NA, Pitts CC, Baldwin all come to mind over recent years.

Holy Ghost Prep is a major sleeper here. Only Horgan is doubling and he should still be one of the top 1200 legs in this race (assuming Willig is anchoring) and he should keep his team out front. Kardish is fresh and should have a surprising leg in him. HG Prep most likely will be in the lead or close to it going into the anchor leg, the way I add up the splits. Unfortunately I don't see Israel as a guy who can bring it home against these anchors. But if he has a great day like he did at XC states, watch out for Holy Ghost.

The last few teams are all solid (Kiski is a big sleeper if Kennedy and Lednak are good to go) but I am not particularly enamored with any. Trinity has a fresh bunch and some confidence so they will probably end up on or near the medal stand. Haverford and Bonner hopefully will hang tough and have fun. Not sure if they are on the same level of most of these teams. Again, I have a bib, people, I am prepared to eat my words.

Just want to throw one disclaimer out there. There is a chance Henderson will run Russell to the 4 to Chaborek to Collins again at states because those early guys are doubling. If that is the case (and they have surprised me with their order before) I think they will drop a bit in time. Maybe not place, but probably time. Or it's possible they may run great. I just don't think Collins can hang with these other anchors. He's not on Israel's level, so it would be tough to be on Willig's or Steiner's or Replogle's or Wistar's.

That being said, here are my thoughts with times:
1. Great Valley 10:22
2. Henderson 10:27
3. Altoona 10:28
4. HG Prep 10:29
5. GFS 10:35
6. NA 10:36
7. CR North 10:38
8. Trinity 10:45