Yes, I am aware that I just refered to myself in the third person which is kinda toolish, but hopefully it doesn't discourage anyone from reading the post.
As the title suggests, I will not be picking Drew Magaha to win the state championship in my official predictions (which will go up one I've seen the D6 Championship results just to make sure that Mountain hasn't gotten injured or that Patrick Reade hasn't secretly taken steroids and become a boss or something like that). So since I have not picked Magaha, the clear favorite in my opinion, and the choice of many to win thus far in my talks and reading, warrants some explanation. So let's begin.
First off let me say a few things about Drew that can not be denied:
1. In the past month no one has touched him. He has dominated every field he has faced in very fast times. Districts wasn't even close.
2. If I was in a fantasy draft, he'd have to be my #1 pick. I have a lot of reasons to think he won't win, but the upside that he has is huge.
3. He ran a 4:07 1600 as a Junior with a huge negative split for the last 400m. He is extremely talented.
4. He can run hills, he had a solid finish at the Pre States meet and he rocked the Salesianum Invite which is no cake walk.
BUT, I am not picking Drew to win states this Saturday. Which begs the question, why?
Well for starters: history. What Drew did last spring season was re-write the history books, so I'm not saying he can't do it again, but an individual who has never before medaled at a cross country state championship has not won states in about a decade (Dan Mazzacco, Baldwin in either 01 or 02 I can't remember). Mazzacco easily could have been a medalist his Junior year considering he was a top finisher at the District 7 championships the week before states and established cross country name.
Since Dan there have been a boat load of guys who have been close to accomplishing the feat (Keith Cappecci, Ben Furcht, Rad Gunzenhauser, Charles Lockwood, Bud Plaszenski, Neal Berman, Zach Hebda, Greg Karies, etc.) but none of them have actually pulled it out. In fact the past couple years the state champions have been big names that are amongst the top returners from the previous season. Miller, Miller, Miller, Weller, Dennin, Tarsnane, Miles and Gil all finished in the top 10 the year before they won the state championship. Magaha finished 127th last season at states and 81st as a sophomore. There is a certain level of experience that I feel is required to run on the big stage, in a big race and have the confidence to know how to win. I'm not sure if Drew has that experience based on his previous finishes at states.
It's undeniable Drew is the favorite, most District One Champions are, but in Cross Country, unlike track, upsets aren't just more frequent, they have become increasingly likely. In the past 5 years the "favorite" going into the state championships has won just once (Brad Miles). In addition the District One Champion has one just once since Ian Gottesfield did in the early turn of the century (same guy, Brad Miles). Guys like Furcht and Hebda have gone on to prove they were the best runner in their year in PA by making Footlockers, however, they don't have any state gold to show off.
One of my other big questions about Drew is his attitude. Drew is obviously a fierce track competitor, he runs hard and he runs gutsy, how else could he unleash the kicks that he has on the field. However, Drew does have a tendency to sometimes mentally fall out of races (indoor states in the mile and the 8, the outdoor 800) which isn't too big of a deal, but there is evidence to suggest the mindset is there.
But it's more than just the occasional lack of being able to double that concerns me about Magaha's attitude. First of all, Magaha does not put in the mileage that the other top guys do. There is reason to suspect based on his recent interviews that he has been down in the 30s for the past few weeks, looking to ride his peak to states. He hasn't even been pushed in a race since Salesianum and has raced in the best conditions out of any of the top guys in the past few weeks. At states, I don't expect the weather to be nice.
Lastly, Magaha himself has said this season his not all his main focus. He has confessed he is a track guy and is just using this season to "show college coaches he can do it".
So after almost a month of not being pushed and racing quite all out at flatter courses, being at low mileage, and having the mental attitude about cross country he has had, I don't think Magaha will have the same edge that the other top runners will have coming into the race. If Magaha comes in expecting things to be easy on the Hershey course and doesn't have his day, he will be vulnerable and he may lose.
These historically tendencies and Drew's recent interviews, races, and training cycle are enough for me to hop onto another bandwagon for the championship meet. Could Drew win? Oh, definitely, it wouldn't be much of a surprise, but, in my opinion, the same can be said for him losing.
That's what makes the state championships so interesting I suppose.
As the expression goes, It's kind of like a box of chocolates. You never know who is going to have the race of their life and pull out the victory.
Or something like that.
-train
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