WPIAL AAA Preview

This week's WPIAL District 7 Championship Preview is comes courtesy of one of etrain's special western correspondents: Gigantor. Hope you enjoy.


District 7(WPIAL) Preview
AAA: After graduating the top four finishers from last year, and seven of the top 10, the boys WPIAL race will be open for new up and comers. The top returners from last year are: Logan Steiner (5th, 15:54), Bobby Bishop(6th, 16:02), Alex Moran (8th, 16:07), and Andrew Kuchta (11th, 16:25, [9:16 in Track]). While these four were expected to dominate the competition this year, they have not. Bishop is MIA, while Moran and Kuchta haven’t run up to expectations since the Red, White and Blue Invitational at beginning of the season (Where they were 2nd and 3rd respectively). Steiner hadn’t been ‘on’ either, running poorly at Carlisle, and Boardman, before laying down a strong move only 1k in to the race at the Tri-State meet this past week at a sloppy Coopers Lake and holding on for the victory. In addition to the top returners from last year, two more guys have forced themselves into the picture for the WPIAL crown: Mike Runco (Central Catholic), and Brent Kennedy (Kiski Area). Kennedy, only a sophomore, ditched soccer (which he played last year and his brother, Ryan, for all four years) to concentrate solely on XC, after a 4:26 freshman 1600m. The results have been phenomenal as Brent placed 2nd to Kuchta at the brutal Gateway invitational (beating third place Ethan Martin by nearly a minute), 6th at the RWB Invite in 15:51, winning the Westmoreland County Championships, and placing 3rd at recent TSTCA meet. The sophomore has clearly made himself one a major contender heading into this week. The other newcomer vying for the crown is Central Catholic senior, Mike Runco. After running only four races in track- a WPIAL Qualifier qualifying time, the WPIAL Qualifier 1600m, the WPIAL Championships 1600m (3rd, 4:25), and the State Championships Prelims (4:24)- Runco ran a 15:57 PR at the RWB invitational, good for 8th place. He followed tat up with an impressive third at Carlsisle (16:10), a runner-up at the Central Catholic Invitational Mudfest (16:39), and 5th at the almost-as-bad-as-Central TSTCA meet.

Predictions:
The race will undoubtedly be another great race at the front, and a good bit depends on how the race unfolds. Steiner can throw in some great surges, especially at Coopers Lake, if he does this(and he has every time he has raced at Coopers for NA), Moran, Runco, and Kennedy will have a decision to make- whether or not to go with Steiner. One thing is for sure, they cannot let him build as big of a gap as he did at the TSTCA meet. Both Moran and Kennedy both have great leg speed, and Steiner has a great kick as well. If the race comes down to a kick any of the three could win. But most of the time in XC its not who’s the fastest and if Runco is fresher after the snaking last kilometer, he has a great shot as well (remember Runco and Grade-School teammate Ean DiSilvio ran away from Moran late at the Central Catholic Invite- though rumor has it Moran fell around 2 miles). The whether is not to be ignored either. After the TSTCA meet, the Coopers Lake course is in extremely poor conditions. Whether or not the course will recover in time is up in the air. Another possibility is moving he course a couple of meters to the left or right (and adjusting other parts of the course), as they did in 2006. The condition of the course could be a factor as Moran’s great rhythm and cadence is hurt by the slipping and sliding, he hasn’t run well on the mud yet this year (Remember Lucas Zarzeczny’s Coach saying “You can’t run a Ferrari in the mud”, while is applies a bit to Moran as well). A sloppy course would seem to favor both Runco and Steiner, while hurting Moran(even Coach A. admits it in his post- TSTCA interview). Also stacked against Moran is Lebo’s disappointing races at Coopers Lake. Two years ago, Rad Gunzenhauser beat Ryan Gil in every race besides two- both at Coopers Lake. And last year Moran was 8th at the WPIAL Championships before placing 14th at State’s right behing WPIAL 5th place finisher, Logan Steiner, and beating Bobby Bishop and Bobby Gasior, 6th and 7th at the WPIAL meet. Unlike Moran, Steiner has run well at Coopers Lake. Of the newcomers, Runco was 24th at the WPIAL Championships last season (his only health WPIAL meet), while Brent Kennedy has never run a WPIAL Championship at XC. With all of this in mind, my predictions:
1. Kennedy
2. Runco
3. Steiner
4. Moran
5. Wakeley

In many ways, the top 4, especially the top three will be very close, too hard to tell, so my predictions do not mean much. My choice to include Wakeley in the top 5 is as follows- he was 8th at TSTCA’s in his first invite all season. He should get some improvement just by racing again.

Others to Watch: E. Martin (Fox Chapel), Schott (Franklin Regional), Faye (Hempfield), Tellin (Mt. Lebo), Tramaglini (Mt. Lebo), Culley (Moon), Kuchta (Baldwin), Haky (Central Catholic), T. Appman (North Allegheny), Boccabella (Norwin)

Team Race:

NA v. Lebo
After winning how many straight WPIAL Championships (six?), the defending State champions, NA, are again in the mix for the WPIAL Team Championship. NA has won every team Championships at Coopers Lake despite being challenged many times, most recently by Baldwin. This year, however, Mount Lebanon is the favorite. Lebo only beat NA by 14 at the TSTCA meet this past week, so the team title is still up in the air. Lebo had a very strong pack (2-6) that ran together until after the half-way point, before breaking up. Rumors are swirling that Lebo may have held back the slightest bit(as you will see later, this is not that uncommon at this meet). NA can exspect some improvement as well from Tyler Nicotra, who normally NA’s #3, but was their 5 at TSTCA’s. Tyler got out very poorly and had trouble moving up. NA will surely want to continue their streak, while Lebo needs to capitize on a rare chance to beat NA at Coopers.

Battle for the 3rd and 4th

Always one of the most dramatic parts of the WPIAL Championship is who will take the last spots to the State meet. While many teams fighting for the last two spots, Central catholic, Kiski Area, Pine-Richland, Fox Chapel, and Hampton are the teams most likely to take the coveted last two spots. All of these teams were very close at the TSTCA meet (all teams were between Central’s 252 and Fox Chapel’s 317), so it appears to be very close. Upon further inspection, many teams had key runners missing (due to illness, injury, or just resting it is unknown). Fox Chapel was missing their 2nd runner, Collin Martin, while Kiski was missing their 2nd (Richard Lednak), and Central Catholic their 3rd (Brian Bollens). It is also important to note that Pine-Richland’s 6th runner at TSTCA was Tom Reinhart, who had run 16:40’s before his injury (it was his first race back). I believe that this will separate Kiski, Central Catholic, Fox Chapel, and maybe Pine Richland from Hampton, but the team finish will still be close. With Lednak in Kiski figures to lose around 100 points, dropping them to around 210, while Central will lose roughly 75 with the addition of Bollens, dropping them to 175. Fox Chapel will also lose roughly 75 points, dropping them to 240. Pine-Richland presumable drop is unquantifiable, but could be important as well. This would leave Central in the third spot and Kiski 4th, with Fox Chapel close behind them. Of course, this assumes the three missing runners will be healthy by next week- without them each team (but especially Kiski), would suffer a nearly fatal blow. Kiski’s problem is their lack of a 5th man, so if they can get one to step up they could turn some heads. Central Catholic, meanwhile, holds down their 4 and 5 spots with two freshmen, Jeff Van Kooten and Pat Curley. Having two freshmen scoring could prove to be an issue. Both Central Catholic and Fox Chapel have strong 1-2-3 punches with weaker 4-5’s while Hampton an Pine-Richland have great packs. With all of this it is prediction time:

1. Mount Lebanon
2. North Allegheny
3. Central Catholic
4. Kiski Area
5. Fox Chapel

As said before the predictions for 3rd, 4th and 5th have assume those teams runners will return next week. If one of them does not, or isnt health when they do, their team will most likely suffer.

-Gigantor