I just want to think everyone for following me to this point and reading the blog to the point where it has surpassed the 100,000 career view mark. I'm glad to have all of you guys as followers out there and this has been a really cool experience over the past few months. I should be at districts on Saturday so I guess be on the look out if you would like to talk to me about any of the action.
But on to the predictions.
Let's start with the 4x8. Now if I'm being honest picking which relays will go hot and which will not (which rhymes) is not an easy task. I believe that the teams to qualify for the finals will be something the lines of:
Spring Ford
Great Valley
Bensalem
and then one other auto qualifier from Heat 1, I'd imagine it would be Darby or Prep depending on whether either of those teams is putting their eggs in the 4x8 basket. But 4 have to get in from this heat and besides these 3 I see no scary teams.
In the second heat, however, we should get 6-8 additional qualifiers.
Pennridge
DT West
Penncrest
should all get in assuming they are going hot as projected.
I don't think North Penn is going to put their A team on the track, but they would still have a shot at finals. I think Upper Moreland will put their A team on, so they should get in and Henderson I also believe will field their A team. That gives me 10 squads right there. Then depending again on who goes for it, the field will probably be filled by some combination of Owen J, CB West, Perk Valley, and WC East. Down at the bottom here it may only take an 8:06-8:08 kind of time to make finals. My Senior year it took 7:59 to make finals (and that was only because Henderson got disqualified).
On to the mile. I have speculated earlier that I do not think Drew will choose to run the 1600 at this meet although he is entered. He certainly would have no difficulty making the final if he chooses to run it, but the guy has run just two real 1600esque races this year and both were revolving around the Penn Relays, which doesn't have anything less than a mile individually anyway. The two seed is Hibbs who also would have a chance to run 1600 and make finals if he wanted to, but I don't see him doing it either. Both guys could but I don't see it going down.
So this leaves guys like Huemmler, Trimble, Metzler, Yannacone, Harriman, Zingarini, Horgan, and Kelly for the finals. They should all get in relatively easily. After that, again I'm doing some guess work on who is running, but the finalists in the field should be guys that are pretty under the radar. Scripture stands out as a guy who could definitely get in, but the last couple will probably either have nice PRs to qualify or it will only take like 4:27 to get in. Gilad Doron looks like he would have fresh legs, unlike a lot of the other guys, so he could definitely get in. Maybe Dan Davis from North Penn as well could surprise his way in. Chris Mullin from Phoenxville also worth noting.
In the 800m, I see Drew obviously qualifying then it gets kind of tricky. Rivera and Jenkins on the double from the 4x8 seem like logical picks. Logue and Kohler too should get in if they choose to double back (which makes plenty of sense to me). Garton has a (probably) fresh shot at the 800 so he should most likely make finals. Then you have a lot of other guys who are very capable of making the finals including the boys from Penncrest doubling back, Huemmler if he wants to run both, Jeff Wiseman who I have been a big fan of this season, Sam Brooks, Ryan Dickson, if Horgan chooses the 8 instead of the 16, if Trimble or Metzler choose the 8, Chaborek on the double ... the list goes on.
So I'll be bold here and not cop out, I'll pick 12 guys to go through to the finals:
Magaha
Rivera
Jenkins
Logue
Kohler
Garton
Brooks
Wiseman
Miller
Chaborek
O'Such
Dickson
No obviously this is with my specific idea of who will be doubling and who will not be doubling and such so keep that in mind.
After Friday I can let you guys know who I think is going to states once I know who is running what and such. Kind of a cop out, I know, but you can kind of tell who I think is going based on who I said would make finals with confidence and who I said wouldn't.
4 x 8:
ReplyDeleteHeat 1(Q=auto, q=time qualifier
Springford-Q
Bensalem-Q
HGP-Q
DTE-Q
Great Valley-q(if Ned does not run)
Heat 2-
Pennridge-Q
DTW-Q
Penncrest-Q
Upper Moreland-Q(If Magaha does not run, they don't qualify)
Meth-q
Henderson-q
CBW-q
Congrats on the 100k views! Love the blog and keep it up!
ReplyDeleteBarber has a slim chance of making it in the 300h(it will probably take 38.5 to make the finals), no chance in the 400(it will probably take 49.1) and no chance in the 4 x 4(In heat 2, they will have to beat Bensalem, Wissahickon, Strath Haven or North Penn. The best chance they have to get people to States is the 4 x 8. Their heat stacks up nicely for them, especially if Ned is out.
DeleteBarber ran all of his penntrack listed PRs off the double, triple, and 4x400 was off the quad. At Chesmonts his 300 hurdle "PR" was after the 200 trials, 4x800 (not completely sure if he ran it... I believe he did), and 400 meter dash. His 400 "PR" was about 30 minutes after the 4x800 at Henderson. Their 4x4 "PR" was after they all doubled (barber quadrupled) and was at chesmonts. I believe if he was fresh, he could make states in the 300IH.
DeleteDowningtown east? An 8:07 making the top four? Are they even running hot? Barber has the 300IH, 400, and 4x400. I don't think his coach will make him run the 4x800 as well. Caldwell also can run the open 800. The other two legs combined for a 4:08... It wouldn't be worth it.
ReplyDeletePure speculation-1600 should scratch to 20 or less(it's wide open if Magaha opts out and runs 1 or 2 relays)
ReplyDeleteHibbs can win the 3200 at States, Harriman and Quinn are better 3200 runners. Yannacone, Logue,Rivera and Chaborek are more likely 800m runners.
Heat 1:
Metzler-Q
Zingarini-Q
Seelaus-Q
Leidel-Q
Kardish-q
Gilad-q
Israel
Hopkins
French
Willig
Heat 2
Trimble-Q
Huemmler-Q
Horgan-Q
Russell-Q
Kelly-q
Wolfe-q
Mullin
Scripture
Watro
Davis
This is with not knowing what the HGP guys are doing. If they go hard in the 4 x 8, it's a double back. It could scratch to even a smaller number.
is willig out or not?
ReplyDeletethis should answer your question
Deletehttp://etrain11.blogspot.com/2012/05/sad-news.html
Yeah, I hope Willig is ok, it would be nice to see him race, but from what I've been lead to believe he is out. Without him GV will be around 8 flat, which might get them in on the q. Will DTW run their good 4x8? They've had potential all season, but haven't under 8:10.
ReplyDeleteIs Russell on the WCH 4x8? And I could see him running the 3200. And it'll be interesting to see what Chaborek does since he is entered in the 400-3200 which is ridiculous. 800 makes most sense for him, all though he ran the 3200 last year after a 1:53 split at penn relays in the 800.
Also look for Seelaus in the 3200 over the mile, I think Huemmler will go mile 800 (SH isn't running them in the 4x8) and Seelaus has the potential for a low 9:20 3200 and stick with the lead pack
Whats even more ridiculous is that Henderson has six guys qualified in the 3200 and all of them are returners. I don’t think any other team has that much depth, especially with returners besides Ohara. Cross country should be an awesome match up between the two schools.
DeleteRussell – 9:31
Chaborek – 9:40
Barchet 9:40
Collins – 9:44
Rimkis 9:46
Stratman – 9:47
Don't forget Haugh, I think he was injured? I didnt see any indoor results from him. I think he was somewhere in the top 30 or 25 at the state xc meet
DeleteHaugh was injured through indoor and the first half of outdoor. Knee injury i think? Something like that. he ran a 9:57 in his first invitational back from his injury at Ches-Monts. Not bad for being out for that long.
DeleteWCH will be very good, it'll be interesting to see if they keep improving as they have these past two years. CRN and NP will both be up their as well, CRN has a great top 3, and their top 5 are returning, and Macauley should lead NP to a top 5 finish. Hopefully he has a comeback race at districts
DeleteHenderson is the State XC champs in 2013 and 2014 and maybe beyond. Their depth is ridiculous. Russell, Collins, Barchet, Stratman, and Haugh are sophomores and they could win it today. And they've got other good sophs. For 2012 they've still got Chaborek and Rimkis. For 2013, todays soph's will be seniors, and they've got a crop freshman under 5:00 in the mile, who should develop.
Deletemeant to say State champs in 2012 and 2013. Might as well stick with 2014 too, they're that deep.
DeleteI expect Magaha to go in the 1600. He said in his Penn Track journal that flirting with sub 4 was a goal. 1:48 800 makes that a real possibility. I don't think it is not being a team player to keep him out of the 4x8. They have little chance of winning that anyway, where as he has a legit shot at making PA history. He could even get crazy and triple in the 4x8, 1600 and 800 at districts, with him getting to states and the 4x8 making it. He can back off a bit and still get all three done. Then at states he could drop the 4x8 and his teammates still get the experience
ReplyDeleteJae Kim, remember that name because you'll be screaming it later! kids got potential.
ReplyDelete