District 1 Predictions: 3200m

This is going to be all distance, so I'm sorry. But let's be real, does anyone really come to this blog for my 300m hurdle analysis? But I will say this the 300H is sick this year in PA.

So D1 day 1 is in the books and as promised, I will be doing predictions for the finals at D1 on Day 2. And tomorrow I will be there to see them live. Feel free to try and come find me. I'll be watching the 2 mile intently though so I'm warning you, unless you are going to cheer for Francis Ferruzzi while you are talking to me (Ned Willig was nice enough to do that some last year), I suggest you wait until after the race.

Moving on.

Let's start at the beginning. The 3200m will start of the day at the D1 championships, most likely being led by a bunch of fresh legs. Out front of course is the favorite Sam Hibbs and the XC state champ Conner Quinn. Reminds me of Bernitt and Miles from Districts a couple years back. I think Quinn is ready for a break out race (his Pr sits at only mid 9:30s). Hibbs is certainly the heavy favorite here and in my opinion should win fairly easily. But these guys will definitely push the pace early and keep this thing fast.

Outside of these two is a whole mess of guys with sub 9:31.70 ability. I have to expect Harriman, Kelly and Russell (who I guess didn't run on that Henderson 4x8?) will all jump ship for the 1600m which they qualified for finals in. This leaves the following guys to be in the hunt for state spots outside of the two Hatter harriers: Emery, Macauley (I'm assuming no 4x8 for him either), Ferruzzi, Trama (outside chance here in terms of the what have you done for me lately category), Seelaus, Kazanjan, Kazanjan, Berry, Barchet, and Israel. No offense meant to anyone else who was not listed here, I just don't know all the names and I assumed some people may have ran relays and such etc.

So in total this is a group of 12 guys competing for about 8 spots (if all of them hit the time). This group with a few more hanger ons should be the front pack. Maybe Hibbs and Quinn break away, but I can't even say that for sure. I think these guys all know they have to hang on to get to the mark. I'm going to throw out Trama and Berry here. Trama hasn't done enough for me of late and although Berry has a solid win under his belt from a week ago which may give him confidence, it may also mean that he had his big moment a week too soon. So out of the ten left I have to pick 8 for the medal spots. Well I'll start with one of the Kazanjan's 10th, I'll go with Matt but no guarentees. Then I'll say Israel for 9th. He definitely has the potential to surprise here, but I feel like he hasn't really impressed me since XC states. At the 8th spot I'm going for the other Kazanjan, Chris. I'll spot him at about 9:32 and change again, right around his PR and he misses the SQS and doesn't get to go. Barchet at 7th will be the last guy in is my guess, somewhere around the 9:30 mark. In 6th I'll take Ferruzzi. I think states is going to be his race, but I'm worried the nagging injuries may have set him back a little bit. I'll go 9:28ish for him. Just in front I have Seelaus, going by him at the end with a kick for 5th. 9:26ish. Macauley in 4th with a 9:25 or so, I think he is due for a nice bounce back race. He crushed the field when he ran 9:26 and I think he just had an off week a week ago. 3rd I have Quinn hanging tough to run his way to a big PR in 9:22. That would be a great day for him so he could easily slip. Then I have Emery is 2nd with a hard fought 9:19 and Hibbs taking a pretty comfortable victory in 9:15.