Search Engine

Predictions

AA Distance
4x800m
I'll be honest, I don't know much about this race. I like Christopher Dock's district effort a lot and I think they will give Quaker Valley a great challenge, but in the end I think Westwood will be too much to overcome on the anchor leg, but this race could potentially be very quick up front. After that group the big things that jump to mind for me is Alexander's 1:56 for Lower Moreland which makes them potentially scary on the anchor leg. Paul Robeson had two guys substantially under 2 minutes indoors and Lewisburg is the defending champions.
1. Quaker Valley 7:53
2. Christopher Dock 7:54
3. Merchuyst Prep 8:01
4. Milton Area 8:02
5. Lower Moreland 8:04
6. Annville Celona 8:04
7. Paul Robeson 8:07
8. Lewisburg 8:08
1600m
This race is going to be fast out front as well with Smathers on the verge of something pretty outstanding. The Junior will be battle Curt Jewett and I expect the two to keep things fast. In the end I think Smathers pulls Jewett to a fast time but Smathers is too much to be beaten. Jackson seems to be the clear 3rd best runner and then I peppered in the guys doubling back. Shearn should be very motivated if he goes down in the 3200m like I am predicting and he should bounce back well. Josef is the other guy I see with the potential to double effectively. Hess was a top finisher a year ago and I'm guessing he will show up at this meet again.
1. Smathers 4:12
2. Jewett 4:14
3. Jackson 4:19
4. Hess 4:22
5. Shearn 4:22
6. Hause 4:22
7. Dipietrantonio 4:25
8. Schieb 4:25
800m
This race should be very tight knit with a lot of guys who can mix it up. Broadwater ran 1:56 indoors, but I'm not sure if he will double effectively. Alexander has run a lot of 1:56's as well, but is also on the double. I think he can double a bit better and run low 1:57s to snag a medal. Snyder is one of my guys I really like out of District 4 and he could surprise in this race. But out front I think Smathers has enough strength to take down the defending champ LJ Westwood. It should be very tight down the stretch and I think Smathers pulls off the Havko esque double to get the job done.
1. Smathers 1:55.7
2. Westwood 1:55.8
3. Snyder 1:56.3
4. Blose 1:56.5
5. Downs 1:56.8
6. Alexander 1:57.1
7. Sturges 1:57.2
8. Decker 1:57.4

AAA Distance
4x800m
This race should be quite competitive. The teams like Henderson and Penncrest left off the medal stand could easily slip in. O'Hara is dangerous as well. Bensalem really impressed me last week across the board at Districts and their 4x8 will be fresher than they were a week ago in theory without the non Rivera legs running individual events. They could have used a few other teams like Chambersburg and Cumberland Valley to help them out as Rivera got the baton with a solid lead against Pennridge and the others and had to do a lot of work on their own out front. Pennridge changed up their plan and is going to skip Kohler's open 8. I like this move a lot and I'm counting on their experience winning a state championship indoors and relatively fresh legs pulling them through to a top finish. Then behind them Chambersburg and Cumberland Valley have been next to each other all season. Both have the potential to drop some time here and surprise, but with the doubling they are doing I am hesitant to pick them for the win. I really like Kiski, they have potential to really run fast, they won easily at the D7 meet and can drop a lot of time in theory. Then there is Spring Ford who is fresher as a team and has experience on this stage. I'm not ready to give up on my boys from DT West just yet. I think they can snag 7th and then State College has run solid all year long and this team should end up on the medal stand.
1. Bensalem 7:45
2. Pennridge 7:46
3. Chambersburg 7:47
4. Cumberland Valley 7:48
5. Kiski 7:49
6. Spring Ford 7:49
7. DT West 7:52
8. State College 7:52
1600m
Now I went bold last week, but c'mon. A fresh, motivated Drew Magaha is hard to pick against in this state  meet. He will challenge his meet record again for sure. I think he won't have enough help to beat his own state record but he should be close. I doubt anybody else is taking the pace and Drew looked uncomfortable doing the work out front last week. Coyle has a great kick and is focused on the 1600m this year. He should edge out Huemmler by a little bit, maybe the extra 800m trials making the difference between Huemmler and Coyle in the race. Both guys, I believe, will run faster than Ned Willig did. After the big three, I'm picking Vinny Todaro to surprise Moran after a bounce back race for Todaro, who was edged at the D3 meet. Moran is very strong and has been on this stage before, but he has yet to drop any time in the 4:17 realm outdoors and Todaro has been living in the 4:16-18 range all season. Then I have a combination of solid D1 guys rounding out the group.
1. Magaha 4:07
2. Coyle 4:10
3. Huemmler 4:11
4. Todaro 4:15
5. Moran 4:15
6. Metzler 4:16
7. Trimble 4:16
8. Zingarini 4:17
800m
This was a tough race to pick, but I went with my gut on this one. Tonzo, who soloed his 1:53 mark a week ago, is my pick to win the race. He and Stone should be neck and neck and I am worried about Stone outkicking Tonzo for the win in this race. Both guys will be fast. Baily and Holder should mix it up as well, Baily kicking to his spot and Holder holding on for his. Baily with fresh legs seems very dangerous. Holder is going to be able to double effectively I believe, but that extra little bit he needs to win may not be there. Yannacone is the D1 champ and he only showed a glimpse of what he had last week. Gerberich is impressive because his 1:55 mark last week was on the double off a 4:16. He should surprise here with fresh legs and improve a solid amount. Don't overlook Damiani out of D2, he has already run 1:54 this year at Henderson. Kunzweiler will be doubling from the 4x8, but he seems to be a step above the other 1:55-56 types that he will be racing.
1. Tonzo 1:52.2
2. Stone 1:52.4
3. Bailey 1:52.9
4. Holder 1:53.0
5. Yannacone 1:53.6
6. Gerberich 1:53.9
7. Damiani 1:54.1
8. Kunzweiler 1:54.8

13 comments:

  1. With temperatures near 90 expected on Saturday, the races are definitely going to be affected. Some of the front runners will falter in the heat, while some other people will step up.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I guess I didn't learn my lesson at the districts 800 last week, cause I'm going against Etrain again. I think Magaha breaks his record and maybe even scares Vandergrifts. He could have gone 4:07 at districts with a hard last 40 meters. With no 800 to run at States, he'll go all out. He can hang in the pack and let them take him through the half at 2:06 or so and then show off his 800 speed. 4:06 even 4:05, a real possibility...maybe even lower.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 4 x 8
      1-Pennridge-7:44
      2-Bensalem-7:44
      3-Chambersburg-7:45
      4-Cumberland Valley-7:46
      5-Spring Ford-7:49
      6-Penncrest-7:49
      7-O'Hara-7:49
      8-Henderson-7:49
      800
      1-Stone-1:52.15
      2-Yannacone-1:52.33
      3-Tonzo-1:52.98
      4-Bailey-1:53.01
      5-Holder-1:53.34
      6-Rivera-1:53.35
      7-Chaborek-1:53.39
      8-Kunzweiler-1:53.40
      9-Rinker-1:53.45

      1600m
      1-Magaha-4:06.22
      2-Coyle-4:10.18
      3-Huemmler-4:10.33
      4-Moran-4:13.77
      5-Todaro-4:14.86
      6-Trimble-4:14.87
      7-Jaskowak-4:14.89
      8-Russell-4:14.93

      3200
      1-Kuchta-9:06.44
      2-Hibbs-9:06.85
      3-McCauley-9:10.11
      4-Emery-9:10.33
      5-Steiner-9:12.04
      6-Burke-9:14.55
      7-Strynkowski-9:16.80
      8-Savage-9:17.32
      9-Quinn-9:17.45
      10-Harriman-9:17.51

      Delete
  3. c-burg went 7:48 with their archor just running to win and they have been consistently dropping time and the middle two legs have been improving and the lead off went 1:54.9 and can go faster and holder is able to go 1:52 if pushed easy im just saying dont count them out for the title.

    ReplyDelete
  4. No love for District 3, huh? I see how it is Train </3

    ReplyDelete
  5. pretty sure i have more d3 medalists than d7 medalists so i think no love is a bit of a strong phrase all things considered ... district 1 has been the best in the past in terms of overall medalists, and i am a student of history

    i'm not saying that they can't win, i'm just saying i don't think they will

    i can only pick one winner

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What about Rotz in the mile?

      Delete
    2. doubling from the 4x8 scares me, he has the potential to make finals for sure, but the odds say fresher legs will prevail

      Delete
  6. 4x800 AAA

    1. Pennridge 7:43
    2. Bensalem 7:45.2
    3. Chambersburg 7:45.3
    4. Cumberland Valley 7:46
    5. Penncrest 7:47
    6. Kiski Area 7:49
    7. Spring Ford 7:50
    8. State College - 7:51


    800m AAA

    1. Stone 1:52.1
    2. Tonzo 1:52.3
    3. Holder 1:53.1
    4. Yannacone 1:53.7
    5. Bailey 1:53.9
    6. Kunzweiler 1:54.3
    7. Chaborek 1:54.6
    8. Rivera 1:54.7


    1600m AAA

    1. Magaha 4:05.7
    2. Coyle 4:09.3
    3. Huemmler 4:11.3
    4. Moran 4:11.8
    5. Trimble 4:14.3
    6. Todaro 4:14.9
    7. Jaskowak 4:16.3
    8. Kennedy 4:18.2


    3200m AAA

    1. Hibbs 9:04.1
    2. Kuchta 9:08.3
    3. Macauley 9:12.2
    4. Steiner 9:12.5
    5. Mountain 9:14.3
    6. Replogle 9:15.1
    7. Emery 9:15.8
    8. Quinn 9:16.7
    9. Burke 9:16.8
    10. Harriman 9:18.3
    11. Kelly 9:19.4
    12. Appman 9:19.8
    13. Martin 9:20.1
    14. Wilkinson 9:20.7
    15. Jaskowak 9:21.6

    ReplyDelete
  7. Sounds like Cburg is a little testy..

    ReplyDelete
  8. Interesting to note, Snyder (AA 800) has not lost head to head in the 8 all year. His only loss was Henderson where he won the slow heat. Also, he negative split at the district meet, going through 400 at 59 high. Him fresh against a tired Westwood and a tired Smathers could be a win.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I posted earlier, figured I might go the etrain direction and maybe post a predicted race summary.
    3200m AAA

    Steiner will go out in front from the gun which is something that I've seen him do a lot. Steiner will go through in around 66-67 with the rest of the pack following through in 68-69. Steiner will lead through 1200m in around 3:20-3:22 when the rest of the pack catches up and settles into about 6th or 7th. Hibbs will then take control of the pack of about 10-12. Kuchta is sitting in 2nd with Mountain, Replogle and Quinn to round out the top 5. Hibbs will take them through the mile in roughly 4:32. Not many changes through 2400m which is when Kuchta makes a move to the front, Macauley has moved up along with Kuchta, Hibbs sits in 3rd with Steiner, Mountain and Replogle in 4th, 5th and 6th. Going into the final lap at 8:01, Macauley is in the lead with Hibbs and Kuchta on his heels. Hibbs makes a move with 300 to go and really turns it on with Kuchta trying to stay with him. Hibbs opens it up in the last 250 to beat Kuchta by 4 seconds with a 63 second close, Steiner is outkicked by Macauley in the last 100 meters. The Altoona boys take 5th and 6th with Emery, Quinn and Burke all within 1 second of them. Harriman will round out the top 10 in 9:18. A total of 12 runners under 9:20, and the sophomore, Martin, taking 13th in 9:20.

    ReplyDelete