District Predictions: 4x800m and 1600m and 800m

You can tell by who all qualified that this race is going to be close. I feel that Owen J and North Penn had to do a lot of work just to get this far and I can't see them having the fire power to move on. But job well done to them on the first day. As for CB East, I think their race was great but also may have cost them too much energy to take the trip on to states. I have them slotted around 10th just ahead of the other two relays. Great Valley is the next logical team to knock off. Without Ned, I don't think they have the firepower to take it down.

After that it gets tricky. I'm not completely sold on Upper Darby, but Penncrest worries me seeing as they didn't get one of the auto quals so they were closer to max effort than some other teams. Besides Rivera, Bensalem's guys didn't have much left for the individual events after the 4x8. Hopefully, a new day will leave them fresher.

Out front, I have to think Pennridge takes it down comfortably. Their guys had a lot left when they dropped that 3:17 bomb at the end of the meet and this field isn't looking that deep. Probably low 7:50s will get the job done. DT West is my pick for 2nd, I've been on this bandwagon for a while and I'm not ready to jump off. Betting on 7:52ish for them. In 3rd I have to go with Spring Ford who did a great job in this race last year and I expect the streak to continue. 7:53ish for them. Then it gets tough. I'm betting that Penncrest bounces back. I'll slot them at 4th with a 7:55 or so. Then I'll take Henderson with a big anchor from Chaborek to pull them through in 7:55 as well. Bensalem not far behind in 6th with a 7:55 to 56, Rivera may be doing catch up duty if the other legs are still tired. I have CB West slotted for 7th in around 7:59 again and Upper Darby rounding out the field to states in 8 flat.

Onto the 1600m. Magolon and Metzler are going to be pulling double duty off that 4x8. That's risky business. I'd have to bet against both of them in this case, although Metzler is very talent and may be able to sneak into the top 8. Mullin I'd have to say just doesn't have the ability to run the low 4:20s time he will need for top 8 so he's out. Then lastly I don't see Brett Kelly making it through to states. He may hit the time, but I think he will finish 9th, leaving him just out of the states mix.

Horgan will probably do some work out front in the race, pushing the pace, but it will be mostly tactical. Maybe Russell and Harriman will do some work to, but not likely to do much. Ultimately, I think when Drew makes his move no one has a response. If it's slow he's virtually unbeatable. Huemmler is the only man with a shot. I'm guessing something like a 57 close for Magaha to win in 4:15, Huemmler behind in 4:17 off a slow pace. Harriman is my pick for 3rd. He's had a good year and I think his work pays off in this race. I'll give him around 4:18. Trimble has a solid kick and had a breakthrough a week ago. He's my pick for 4th in 4:18 as well. I'll take Horgan for 5th. I feel like his indoor season was too strong for him to just go away outdoors. I've got a 4:21 out of him. Zingirini is my guy for 6th in about 4:21 as well and Russell right behind for 7th in the same time. Both just don't seem to have the pure speed needed to close with these other guys. And lastly I think Kardish will steal a spot. He has run well and will be gunning for Horgan in the race. 4:22ish for the final spot. Metzler or Kelly could certainly steal it with a great double.


Lastly the 800m. It's a doubling game here and it's hard to project how the dice will fall. Yannacone and Wiseman are two of the only fresh guys in the bunch. Wiseman finally had that breakout race I've been waiting for in the prelims. If he holds it togehter in the finals he will be very dangerous. Yannacone is no joke, could definitely steal a win here. Dickson and Scripture also have fresh legs, Dickson coming on strong at the right time and Scripture flying under the radar all season despite solid times indoors and out. Then of course there is Dave Garton, the 1:55 guy who is virtually fresh as well after only running 1:57 in qualifying. Gosh this is a tough one to pick. Some guys are gonna run like 1:55 and still may miss if everyone holds it together.

So I have to make some picks here don't I?

Alright I'll go bold what do I have to lose?

I never liked Magaha's doubling so I'm going to pick Yannacone for the win in the 800 in around 1:53. I have Magaha taking 2nd, either running out of track or maybe just not having enough at the end to hang. Also a 1:53. For third I have Koehler. If he anchors the 4x8 he should be able to save something, if he runs 3rd he will have to do most if not all of the work to break it open. He will probably be 1:54-1:55. With him will be, well, everyone else. I'll go Garton in 4th, Chaborek in 5th, Wiseman in 6th, Rivera in 7th, and Huemmler in 8th. Scripture 9th, O'Such 10th, Dickinson 11th and Jenkins 12th. Literally any of those guys could have the big day and drop 1:53 and get in comfortable. Most likely we are going to see a lot of 1:55s and if people double well in this field I guarantee you that at least one 1:55 mark is outside the top 8.