Gosh. This was an agonizing decision for me. So many guys who can make some noise in this race its unfair. If the weather is nice and these guys all push each other we could potentially see all the medalists under 9:20, perhaps even a few non medalists under the mark. The only big name that will be running a race outside of the 3200, is the XC state runner up Dan Jaskowak, who will run the 1600m prelims (and I suppose possibly the 4x8, although I doubt it). Just about everyone in this race has a lot of potential. The pack should be very tight, even with a 4:35ish pace. If Hibbs does choose to take it out (which seems like it will happen), he isn't going to drop any of these guys easily. And if the weather is warm, Hibbs is very vulnerable. That being said, statistically the District 1 Champion or District 1 runner up has won the state meet the next weekend since I believe Bixler in 05.
So needless to say this was heartbreaking for me to try and pick between all these guys for predictions. I think this race will unfold with Hibbs and Kuchta out front. Steiner should hang around with them as well. The Altoona boys have never been afraid to go for it, they should be pushing the front pack pace. Quinn, Macauley and Emery should try to hang after their District meet results and Burke as well I expect to be running in the front group. There should also be a few guys like Israel who are front runners who tuck into that top pack.
And of course there is Jaskowak. I am honestly not sure what to make of him. He has yet to drop a mark under the 9:30 mark which does worry me, but I have also said that I think he could win this race if he goes for it. I expect him to be in the front pack, and I hope that his 1600m trials heat doesn't require him to run 4:15 to make finals.
I don't know how Wilkinson and Ehret run out of District, but both may try and go with Burke after they ran with him at the District 2 meet to impressive results. Liam Corcoran is one of my sleeper picks out of District 3. I think he is a very solid runner who has been on the rise of late.
You also have the District 12 boys, Savage and Pitone. But they have never broke the 9:30 barrier this season. I think they will probably go for it, but I am worried about these two fading quickly if this race is going to take sub 9:20 to medal.
Overall as the race goes on I foresee some people falling off the pace. I'm worried about Kuchta in this race. His buddy Paul won the D7 meet last year and beat a lot of big names, but struggled to follow up at the state meet the next weekend. Kuchta too was a tad slower than his 9:16 effort the week before. He also struggled at the indoor state meet 3k this year. BUT Kuchta has been pretty untouchable this year outdoors.
But my big pick here is going to be Steiner. I think he couldn't hang a week ago, but is going to be back with a vengeance and ready to have a clutch state meet once again. Kuchta is going to be feeling a bit more pressure than Steiner for sure.
The youngster who are on this kind of stage for the first time worry me as well. Macauley, Emery and Quinn I see all fading over the course of the race and not being able to hang on to medaling.
I see Jaskowak mixing it up, but ultimately just not having enough to take the win. If he makes finals in the 1600m, if things start to slip, the second race may sneak into the back of his mind.
I like Burke a lot in this race, he was on my fantasy XC team and he has also quietly been beating some quality fields. I think the increased competition will benefit him most.
Styrnkowkski also is a guy to watch in this race. He is one of the top returners from a year ago and seems to finally be over his injuries and ready to drop a great time.
Ultimately there are so many factors in this race it is tough to touch on everyone, but this is how I see things playing out in the end:
1. Hibbs 9:07
2. Steiner 9:10
3. Burke 9:12
4. Kuchta 9:14
5. Strynkowski 9:16
6. Jaskowak 9:17
7. Mountain 9:18
8. Replogle 9:18
But any of the guys I mentioned earlier could definitely surprise and steal a medal. Even the D7 guys I neglected like Appman, Martin, and Faye could have a great day and scare the 9:20 barrier. It is a very deep race and if someone doesn't have their day, a lot of people will be ready to come back and steal your spot.
let's do this!
ReplyDeletebig jump for some of these guys.
ReplyDelete1. Hibbs 9:04
ReplyDelete2. Kuchta 9:09
3. Steiner 9:11
4. Jaskowak 9:14
5. Burke 9:15
6. Mountain 9:19
7. Replogle 9:19
8. Appman 9:20
1. Hibbs 9:04
ReplyDelete2. Emery 9:05
3. Kuchta 9:08
4. Steiner 9:11
5. Replogle 9:15
6. Jaskowak 9:15
7. Burke 9:17
8. Mountain 9:19
1. Hibbs 9:06(seems unbeatable)
ReplyDelete2. Steiner 9:07 (has a great kick)
3. Kutcha 9:10
4. Replogle 9:14(both altoona boys haven't really ran it fresh)
5. Mountain 9:15
6. emery 9:15(very impressed by him, just not sure how the race will go)
7. burke 9:17 (unsure of how much faster he can go, should def place)
8. jaskowak 9:18 (doubling may hurt him)
any of these guys can win to be honest.
I'd love to see Hibbs take it. Cross country probably wasn't what he had hoped for his senior season, but he's bounced back nicely.
ReplyDelete1. 9:09 Hibbs- has been running like we had all expected, his race to lose.
ReplyDelete2. 9:11 Kuchta- has experience in this race and has ran 9:10 already, i would be shocked if he let last year repeat itself
3. 9:12 Mountain- Disappointed at cross states a little, has great range and a ton of potential if he runs fresh, remember their district meet was in one day 9:28 on a triple.
4. 9:12 Steiner- Great runner with a lot of talent and a great kick, i think a slower pace 4:38 states race will be perfect for him to pr and snag up a few people on the last laps.
5. 9:15 Connor Quinn- State champ... nuff said, he will show up and he will pr, don't count him out of a top 5 finish.
6. 9:16 Replogle- Same as Mountain, has a ton of potential, but has never been to this meet and can at times have consistency issues, if it's a good day, look out.
7. 9:16 Emery- Has ran a 9:11, with a ton of potential next year. Will definately hang on to the leaders, and possibly be top 3 on a great day, don't count out a 9:11 guy!
8. 9:19 Macauley- incredible 9:15 at districts but may not have a perfectly paced race at states sooo many things happen and change but i believe he is too talented to not be considered for a medal.
9. 9:20 Sean Burke- had a great year, could definately medal but this feild is stacked so it's hard to take him over the other names.
10. 9:20 Strynkowski- could bust out a 9:15 and has run well in the past here, don't be shocked of a 3rd or 4th place finish.
11. 9:21 Connor Harriman- High medalist in cross! already ran 9:22 so could be in the 9:15 range for sure look out he shocked us all once!
12. 9:22 Zach Isreal- medalled in cross and has the ability to sneak onto the medal stand.
This is a great field and has some truly great athletes, everyones list could be completely turned upside down on any day also not mentioned in my list is the bronze medalist from cross Brett Kelly, he's clutch. don't forget him!
This guy knows his stuff.
DeleteLol Kuchta…
DeleteBurke is probably one of the toughest guys I know. If he is there with the leaders with 600 to go, he will take it.
ReplyDeleteI'll the same about Emery. I think the last 600 will have a lot of lead changes and a very fast split. Hopefully it won't be too hot in the morning and these guys can get PR's as well, but it looks like it'll be in the high 70's if not 80's which is usually not ideal for distance runners
DeleteIn the 3200m run Sam Hibbs leads the way with a 9:08.62 clocking but Andrew Kuchta is just back in 9:10.36. Hibbs is back in form after a state title in cross country and should race very well and get the win. Mac Emery has a time of 9:11.24 and should be in the mix as well. Several others are under 9:20 and should mix it up well in the final mile.
ReplyDeleteGotta love the Penntrack people posting that Hibbs won states in XC