Question 5, Question 6

Like I've said before, I don't think LaSalle is going to go for the 4x8, Stone and Coyle are both potential 1:52 splits at states (Stone even 1:51ish) and LaSalle has gone for the 4x8 a lot over the years and has had a lot of team oriented runners come through and lead to success. I don't think Coyle or Stone is selfish and wants to go for individual glory and screw over the team, that is definitely not what I am trying to say. I just think with the talent those guys have it doesn't make too much sense to run 7:47ish and take 3rd but miss out on a chance at state gold for two guys. If they double I can say with confidence neither guy will win. That being said, if they choose to go for the 4x8 and they have a 4th leg who is faster than what they had indoors they can win the 4x8 title.

As for Stone, with Willig out, Stone is the favorite if Drew passes on the 8 or doubles back from the 16 in my mind. So yes, Stone has a very realistic shot at taking down the gold if he doesn't run the 4x8. Holder will run 4x8, Hardy and Horgan haven't shown signs of real promise yet, Magaha has struggled to double effectively before, Rivera I don't think is quite on Stone's level, and I can't think of anybody else off the top of my head who is going to beat Stone. Might be missing someone though.

As for the 3200m, the fastest 2 times are from Wilson and Shearn in AA and Independent league. At Henderson the top 3 guys were independent league runners. Williams has run 9:24 and Jewett ran 4:17 and doubled back the next day in 9:39. The 3200m has got some real talent on the AA and Independent league. Aziz, Wistar, Wilson and Ritz can all push each other very quickly, especially since Wilson almost certainly will finish the season as PA #1 in the 3200m.

Andrew Kuchta heads the group out front with his 9:17 from his home invite. He has been the dominate guy all season for AAA and is an early favorite for the title for sure. But over in Altoona a couple boys by the name of Mountain and Replogle are going to be in the mix out front and have sub 9:20 potential. Steiner is coming into his own and hopefully will peak at the right times like indoors at states and Appman is a very solid guy in his own right. Jaskowak could certainly run under 9:20 right now if he jumped in the right race. Doesn't look like my dream for that man is going to happen.

Sean Burke flying under everyone's radar as well sitting at 9:23 for 3200m! He was a top cross guy and he should get a bit more love for sure with a win over a tough field of AA studs. Strynkowski hasn't done much lately, but don't sleep on this guy, he had a big end to his season last spring and I will be looking for him to do something similar this year. Liam Corcoran. You may not know his name, but he is a sub 9:30 3200m runner who is getting better and is a deep sleeper to come out of D3 and compete for a medal. The O'Hara boys each could run 9:30 or faster at states. Savage could run low 9:20s at least, Billotta, Pitone, and Pastore are all great competitors and run together as a pack and as a teammates and can push each other under the SQS and punch all of their tickets to states.

And this is without the D1 guys even being mentioned yet. Hibbs is at 9:19 equivalent after his 3k, Ferruzzi has beaten him before this year, although he has struggled with injuries. Harriman is in good 3200m shape (but may pick the 1600m) and Emery as well as proven he can run a solid 9:20ish performance. Quinn is still the XC state champ, so you can't count him out of anything. Jack Macauley dropped a nice last 800m and rolled his way to a 9:26 performance in the 3200m. Zach Trama hasn't gotten back to it lately but he did run sub 9:30 a long, long time ago. Have to keep him in mind as a long shot to run low 9:20s. Tony Russell is getting back from injury and runs for a pretty darn good team so definitely could get to states. Devlin also a big long shot to snag a spot to states, but if he gets back in shape in time he will be very dangerous.

Seelaus, Martin, the Kazanjans, Israel, Jordan Crawford, Caleb Wakeley, Aaron Wilkinson, and a lot more could take the next step in the coming weeks as well.

But the D1 guys are all just a little off that next step that they have to take to be low 9:20, high 9 teens kind of guys rather than mid 9:20 guys.

On the AA side, however, there is some serious depth. The aforementioned North Bradford duo, if Jewett tries the 32 and 16, both are 9:20 kind of guys, Shearn is already under 9:20 and Rico Galassi just dropped 9:24 and 4:19 in recent weeks. The XC state runner up Luke Jones is at 9:25 as well with potential to continue to drop. Plus Josef is a low 9:20 performance waiting to happen. But can this race get dragged out fast enough, and if that does happen which guy is going to hold on? Can Shearn win pushing the pace the whole way? If he has to lead from the gun it may hurt him against guys with big kicks like Jewett and Galassi. Shearn's top races have come from riding the pack. Not saying he can't lead, just saying he hasn't had to do it yet in a big race. That may slow the progress they need to run down around 9:15. But heck, there is a lot of potential here for these guys to all push each other and find 5 guys under 9:20 at the end of the day. And we haven't even heard from guys like Barrett Kemp yet.

The only reason I think AAA would be faster at this point is history. Historically, its not ever really been close.

But I'll go bold and say the average spot for the top 8 in AA will be faster than AAA this year. Independent League's top 8 average will finish 3rd.